(UNTITLED)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP67-00059A000300010016-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 11, 2004
• Sequence Number: 16
• Publication Date: December 14, 1949
• Content Type: MEMO

Approd For Release 2004/03/15 : CIA-RDP6700059A000300010016-0
14 December 1949
Memorandum to: AD/ORE
1. Reference is made to E?D Notice No. 2-49, dated 9 December,
1949.
2. My comments on "A Concept of National Intelligence 'Production
on the Far East" are as follows:
a. This approach to the problem of planning intelligence
production involves the risk, it seems to me, of erecting an
elaborate building upon what may prove to be a false foundation.
An estimate of the situation has, in effect, been made and
future production planned to develop this estimate. I think
a different interpretation of the Far Eastern situation might
be selected, and then the plan would require considerable
modification. For example, it is possible, in my opinion, that
the Kremlin is considerably worried about the creation of a
power complex in the Far East which could be a serious rival to
Soviet ambitions. There is no reason to suppose that communist
states cannot have conflicting interests and go to war as
capitalist nations have. A disorganized Far Eastern area, which
tends to drain off Western power resources, may serve Russian
purposes better than the attempt to create a remote power center
the ultimate control of which is by no means assured. It seems
to me, therefore, that while the estimate made in the subject
paper may well be the correct one it'is not necessarily so, and
intelligence production could be directed along unrealistic
lines.
b. The concept, in my opinion, does not give enough atten-
tion to Far Eastern developments only indirectly unrelated to
the US/USSR struggle which may affect US security -- e.g., a
revival of an aggressive Japanese nationalism. Such developments
I. may appear remote, but there is a danger, it seems to me, that
an intelligence plan focused entirely on a current situation, the
US/USSR conflict, will overlook something which may grow quickly
into a major security problem..
c. For a long-range production plan, I would. prefer to see
set forth several possible lines of area development of significance
to US security and research and estimates proposed which would
keep all these under review. Such a plan, I believe, would minimize
the danger of selecting an interpretation which appears currently
valid. and producing intelligence to support it.
d. In so far as the proposed concept provides for a continuing
assessment of the ,{human and material potentials of the Far East"
Approved For Release 2004/03/15 : CIA-RDP67-00059AO00300010016-0
 Approved For Release 2004/03/15 : CIA-RDP67-00059AO00300010016-0
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I think it is on sound ground. This is a proper intelligence
function and such assessments are needed for all estimates
based on assumptions arising out of current developments.
25X1
Approved For Release 2004/031,5 'CIA-RDP67-00059A000300010016-0
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