WORKING PAPER ON MONITORED BAN ON THE PRODUCTION OF LONG -RANGE BALLISTIC MISSILES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP66R00546R000200110019-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 10, 1998
• Sequence Number: 19
• Publication Date: January 20, 1960
• Content Type: PAPER

f.s B-R-A-F-T
0 January 1960
`:-~'C:RKING PAPER ON A MONITORED BAN ON THE
PRODUCTION OF LONG-RIL74GE BALLISTIC MISSILES
I. P OBLE~i
A. To assess the technical feasibility of developing a system
to detect violations of an international agreement which prohibits
or limits production of long-range ballistic missiles.
B. To assess existing intelligence information and available
ca,U ction techniques which may be applicable.
C. To determine the prerequisite and continuing conditions
rece-t,sary to give a high assurance of detecting any Soviet viola-
. ions of such an agreement.
II., CONCLUSIONS
A. A monitored ban on the production of long-ran ballistic
missiles is technicail. feasible provided the agreement includes
a vigorous inspection system which guarantees complete access for
obse: nation and elicitation within all areas of the Sino-Soviet:
B. The production ban and inspection system can operate
effectively within. the context of internationally controlled space,
research programs.
C. An agreement to ban production of long-range ballistic
?` The necessar ~a des ax hl_e elements of such an agreement; and
insp;:ction system are included in Annex A.
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missiles must include :.aj:e_ia.rdv against the diversion and adapta-
tion of shorter range 7allistic and air defense missiles.
1. A production an must include as a prior condition a
precise accounting of existing tissue stoc.Espiles. Intelligence
probably will not be able to determine these numbers for early
1961 or 3_963 with sufficient accuracy and high levels of assurance.
E. Current and Dzo1 ected intelligence collection assets alone
T~,i11 not provide a high assurance of detecting Soviet violations
of a production ban.
III. ASSUMPTIONS
intsrnatio:ai1 agreement to b n or limit the production
of lcng-range missiles is effected during the period 1960.1963.
B. The Soviets will examine means, and may attempt, to
circumvent whatever agreement is adopted.
this paper assumes neither agreement nor disagreement on
the control of nuclear warheads.
D. For purposes of the production agreement "long-range
ballistic missiles" include any ballistic missile with a capability
to-deliver a nuclear payload to a nominal range over 650 nautical
miles.
iv. DISCUSSION
(This section outliner, the general areas which may be
detailed in a later dxvtft to support the conclusions
reaented in Section II. It is intended to supplement
this discussion w th. data as indi.eated in the Proposed
Appendices, Section'V.)
The alternative methods by which the Soviet Union might
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c3rci.imvent '.c aF*~E.ernent wexicb prohia-,its or -limits prcd-iictlon of
lcx ;_re,:.~ Q hall sF.ic missiles
i,, 11r oduc bion.: assembly ar ct ;ieployment of mi sai1es and
r x~.soc fated equipment clandestinely aft ,91- mutual dise:rmeaanex t s
been es:"_ ected .
2. Negation of the short-term effect of a ban on pzodue .
t5 on by, clandestine eatore.ge of missiles and egpippment a1r ,y in
beiww when mutua..L disarmament, is implem -rated.
of ICBM xares: zuctioz; within the s rt;'riff ea of
a large space ex.1 .c:a e~at.1or program .
The nat!are of the a eement icy ban or limit production
ne the extent of Ani si.le activity and. space research that : ,y
r ui3Y2E4bl
ar rse -rmi~.-red
.- 11 ciatio ashin of a srace projT. m- to capebilxt;, to
produccc lozq -ranp.~ he,ilistlc missiles.
2, Re1aa l ionsh:in of other missile development programs
to the production of 1o ?r r e be llxati.H missiles
N. P oduc",-.on involved in an agreement peg.mi.ttix .:.Lm:+.ted
atockpil.es and troop trai.r_ Lng
C. Elements of vrsF~,:,z?ol a ri inspect-.on system,.
1. A.cca~txn ; .bi1i r for rer -tin naaL rials .
o to '. ?.f r for rocket e 71 /~ t
(,, 17 Fa; Y 1 t _, s over A 5r 004 p~}..,!lc
5x2,:=`lrt C' :.~? of mi si +.e .P 4`..C F,.` M.?i's-.
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and
(h) ;hog .d bast- ,Ne concentrated on nisaile a
,:oct et en : a facilities.
S eill.arzce within the Sino-Soviet Bloc to detect
ztc car production of long-range ballistic
complete fre?elom of access,, and
(b) ats? and ground surveillance.
D. :?:e: ii ssue C'oll.ectie)n as related to a production ban
.nd :elated inspectton system.
Z. Inability of dote-mining total Soviet capability to
. ?o ,uce ion ,-r ;:nge ballietie missiles.
2. Inability of dete:,,nining ballistic missile stockpile.
3? 25X1 B4b^ ^
~~. Intelligence collection techniques applicable to
detecting Soviet vi6lation.
V. PROPOSED AP uiYD CES
4, Current e::4 ;1z.ates gave: the MO the folloT:iing capE.bility
to produce ton -rare ballistic missiles:
1961 1963
Pang,, As
Progr.ai:,med Csasb Programmed Cs sh
700
"100
5, 500
Totals
P. Est--!.Tate of the nuthber of facilities involved,, persc,e:l
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inndustri a}1 prQ6 -uiil to sui)pos;t
4,,bov ~ production estimates-, .St9 Cement on how these would be
afAe ed by a ban rhic;ha a ..ows a space program but a) prohibits
mise'+.le Production., oz? b) limits long-range missile production to
ziz .thtew.ac of an agrc;ec.3. atocktsi.le.
C Estimate of the number and size of the facilities anr
to r11tar of personnel involved. In covert production of 1, 10, az d
20 wAssi1es per moratb.
D ' atinate of :hc! averse numbers of missiles Produced
per month in the Sovlot Uraicn i.n Support of R & D, testing and
trot) training, 1954..1959
1?xe :~tx 1955 1956 19 2
'QUO
5,500
Space
Research
1% Estimate of the average alum er? of rocket engines proc:,uead
per month in the Soviet Union ..ra Esupport of R & D, testing ana
trocp training 3S)5041 1-3N,59.
rus,t
'5' 000
Coo
250 o OOo
o., ooo
-954 1955 x,9.56 1957 1958 19`:12
Fa f30stinw e of is tee. 3 z ztrc:a: a of 5o,~.rlet long-raw e tal:l:tst:c
M13s11.es necesc3a. y t.o support. cwt - rm au kBin:tmix-a attack orcc?_s
a&ai aat US , and D W N , t a r t ~:;,. fa a;c :zt J a 1961 and 196_-1.
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or
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n,*7:?.t 's ASS' 4''~a?' '~34a11. .C? 'Wider '0 bring the JL r*
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A0 t2mg 8 as to the MV um o the- fir,. ,t.
1. Stringent intern tionsl control of the devea `i
fabxIcation, teeting or use of Vehicles and rocked
Once operations. i m b r i c a t i o n or p r o d u 4 t i o 4 of apace V&WL4100
being limited to per month.
2. A ban on the production of ]Long--rye bs1],i .c it.ailoe
and limitation or rocket engine production to a rate that, will
esupport the c ntrolled space progr o
3. The prohibition of deeelopt e t and testing of 1c ngw
range ballistic missiles.
40 he de tion of existing s OC4114g and
fae1 itle fo
r all t of ballistic missiles. includlu g-
MM"Ine
x , short-rangy and air defense missiles. The agi emet meelr
or may not call for datattction of long-range missilee and
pr'o tio1a tooling.
S. its of the IXpe gnte m.
1. Nascecnsry
s. On the initiative of, the inspection tee,
r3 t to
periodic,, immediate and unrestricted access and eotionn
of missile facilities and i t, both declared, and unda .ared,
to ascertain ehether a long-rem V. adaailee capability, is
concealed.
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C. if aC daII 2 A~'S`?' .1.0FR Of MUTIUD G ie W d
pvoduetion o3 ?g is agreed to the. right to audit ewt ;i s W4riiebi :;~
and the r . t to cac ,re reweeentarbive samples of Iwoduction
ct t ec and eoVonaWm, for t cal and making cna ysie.
da it account bi1it7 for use of oclected
f r used and roan.-finished t .+ proctred rocket engUm and
restricted ssi proevion facilities.
e o e xvieht to u strictaed access to and iwrscti=
of shipyards es Wa1': ox' conwh-actica or modifying vesaala for
launching of
Awl
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