RECONCILIATION OF ESTIMATES OF THE VALUE OF ARMAMENTS SHIPPED BY BLOC COUNTRIES TO EGYPT, SYRIA, YEMEN, AND AFGHANISTAN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP62S00545A000100090126-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 30, 2003
• Sequence Number: 126
• Content Type: REPORT

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Reconciliation of Estimates of the Value of Armaments Shipped
by Bloc Countries to Egypt, Syria, Yemen, and Afghanistan
Differences in the value of Bloc exports of arms to the Near East
25X1 contained inl Project 30.188+ and those carried in EIC publications
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are generally explicable in terms of the different
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The main areas of difference are the following:
1. EIC publications attempt to measure Bloc credits for arms
purchases in terms of the contractual relationships which reflect the
financial burden upon the recipient countries. The figures presented
in Project 50.1884, on the other hand, are based upon an estimated
value of quantities of armaments believed to have been ordered or
received. The latter is not necessarily the same as the contracted
financial obligation.
2. Many of the values of arms derived
are based upon U.S.
production costs and probably overstate the actual selling price. This
difference may be considerable, particularly because
II
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estimates 25X1
for naval equipment and spare parts for aircraft are all based on U.S.
production costs and U.S. Air Force procurement policies. Estimates
for aircraft spare parts, for example, may amount to 50-75 percent of
the total values shown for aircraft, whereas the quantities of spare
parts included in the credit contracts, if any, are not knoim.
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3. Ammunition accounts for a considerable amount of
totals for each country--roughly 1/3 in the cases of Syria, Yemen, and
Afghanistan, and about 20 percent in the case of Egypt. The amounts of
ammunition delivered by the Bloc are determined by estimates of units of
fire required for each weapon. In many instances these units of fire
are based upon U.S. and USSR fire power concepts which may not be applicable
to the case of the countries included in the estimates. The quantities of
ammunition, however, included in the credit contracts are in most cases
unknown.
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7. The estimate of the value of Bloc arms deliveries to Afghanistan
(as opposed to the price paid by the Afghani) requires more heroic
assumptions than do the value estimates for other recipient countries.
Not only are values imputed from U.S. costs, but the quantities of
specific arms items are also imputed by estimating what would be necessary
to equip fully the Afghan army. Thus it would appear that the value
estimate for Afghanistan contains a strong upward bias.
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