ACTIVITY REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 1959

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP62S00231A000100220009-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 11, 1999
• Sequence Number: 9
• Publication Date: January 13, 1960
• Content Type: MEMO

1 4 JAN
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13 January 1960
TO: Assistant Director for Research and Reports
FROM: Chief, Economic Research Area
SUBJECT: Activity Report for the Month of December 1959
t Activities
Intra',ten.84PPPV:
1. During December the principal articles prepared by ERA in
support of OC/ concerned the Soviet agricultural plenum, Soviet
agricultural output in 1959, Khrushchev's latest electric power speech,
the economic situation ix Bulgaria, Noland and East Germany, the decline
in Soviet school enrollawnt, the North Korean program for 1960, and Bloc
activities in Ethiopia, lenen, Latin America and in the world rubber
market. in early December, the on Biweekly Survey of Communist Activi-
ties was suspended.
2. Chief, DA briefed the DC/ on NIX 11-8-59, "Soviet Capabilities
for Strategic Attack through Mid-1964," which by the end of December was
successfully completed. Chief, ERA, Chief, D/I, and Chief, D/A, briefed
members of USIB on general economic developments in the USSR, particularly
with respect to the military expenditures implication of NIE 11-4-59,
"Main Trends in Soviet Capabilities and Policies, 1959-64."
3. Premier Khrushchev's Budapest statement on missiles of 1 December
led to a request for I/GM comment and support for an OCT publication.
//GM also assisted Chief, D/Iiin preparing a brief comment for the DCI
on an earlier Khrushchev statement on missile expenditures.
4. //GM provided extensive support, including the loan of branch
graphics, to WI in the preparation of a forthcoming briefing for the DCI
on new developments in the surface-to-air missile field. The briefing
will be the first of a series of OSI briefings intended to apprise the
Director of new developments in technical fields. Chief, 1/(34, has been
invited to attend the briefing and anever questions on the economic,
production, and deployment aspects should any arise.
5. I/GM prepared initial drafts of the production and deployment
sections of a paper, dealing with the history of Soviet development of
long-range ballistic missiles, to be emitted by the DCI to the President
in mid-January. (34D/OSI is the action unit in the Agency for this paper,
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ar0 close coordination is being maintained with OSI on the subsequent
drafts.
6, At the request of SR, DD P Mt. AWN I/GM, briefed the
25X1X7 Chief or on current problems of collecting
information on the Soviet guided miesile program. Also, the Deployment
Oection, I/GM, briefed 8 members of the Reports Branch of DD/P/ER on the
role, within CIA, of ORE in the field of guided missile deployment. The
meeting was arranged after learning that this group was unaware of ORR's
interest in and responsibility for this type of information.
M/CR provided special support to the pup in the form of back-
ground information and reauirements relating to the Bloc position with
regard to boron commands, which are potentially important as components
of missile propellants.
8. M/FMand M/NF prepared a bibliography of open Soviet sources
loformation on ferrous3 and alloying materials for the DCI.
,h3t1Y.
9 usrB Watch Coneettee support continued at a relatively by
level with the food situation in the northern Satellites and arms traffic
the chief items of continuing interest.
10. S/TD provided support and advice to the Port Security Committee
in connection with the entries of the Polish ship, jantar, the Soviet
ships, Jana and Seetlogorsk and the British ship, London Prestige. Also
considered was the proponed visit of the U.S. cruiser Northampton to
Gdynia, vith its possible implication of Polish requests for reciprocity.
25X1A9a 11. Mr. I/RE, was recalled to Paris in connection with
the 1959 COCOM review of the International List of strategic trade items.
12. 14/FM provided intelligence support to the U.S. Delegate to
COCOM regarding cobalt and vacuum furnaces.
13. 5/TD and I/PB also continued to provide intelligence support to
25X1A9a MAC for the COCOM List Review. Me. 1/PE, devoted considerable
time to supporting the CIA position that Bloc countries are producing COCOM
item 1016, grinding heads and spindle assemblies, a position which the
Office of the Secretary of Defense has challenged. At the end of the
mouth, the CIA fact sheet remained unchanged; however, OSD continued to
maintain that CIA had not proved actual production
order hea been plac
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14, MAN provided with
background information cal iron aM steel facilities and prac ces in the
USSR and the Eusats. is undertaking an eight months study
of the comparative efficiency of the steel industries in the West, the 25X1A5a1
USSR and the Eusats. Basing his work at Geneva, he expects to visit
several of these countries to supplement information obtained on two
orevious trips.
15. Chief, API AU, provided
information on the Soviet Budget and Plans to Mr.
25X1A5a1 16. TO support the in connectionvith its vork for
theIIMMMMMM=111.1W as veil as for other projects, I/ME
prepared and transmitted to extensive material on ruble ratios,
military expenditures, Soviet Air Force personnel my, and the formula-
tion and execution of poLicy for Soviet weapons.
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17. M/FM supported AFCIC Missile branch with intelligence on
alloying materials intim Sino-Soviet Bloc.
18, Or provided unclassified estimates of the production of
aluminum in Communist China and the Eusats for the Department of State.
19. OP provided support to State regarding trade in petroleum
between the Bloc and the Free World in 1959 and to the Air Force regarding
petroleum pipelines in the USSR.
20. DiM, at the request of OCDM, provide an observer to the
Interagency Committee to Develop Programs to Retard Western Europe's
Dependence on Middle Nast 011. CIA has been asked to provide information
regarding the Bloc's ability to influence the supply of petroleum to
Western Europe.
gpeechest Lecturest EpAa_BrAlEiga
a. Ai% presented a lecture an Soviet Finance
for the Office of Training.
DM, briefed staff members of OCB on the subject
of World Energy Problems.
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24.
visited
by that
Chief, AP dC, an 11111111M
on Soviet popu:_ation and labor
the Bureau of thee Census Foreign
staff'.
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A/Pc, brief
force data.
Manpower Office and vas briefed
25. Members a Wm and OF, held discussions with representatives
25X1 X7 of on the USSR reserves, production and supply of nickel, cobalt,
tungsten, gold, couper, tin, and diamonds.
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Besearck FoTogr3111 Dayelsliztva4 ,gpeckig p:rp_tosl
33. Chief, 00 was designated OBR member of a WV DWI Committee
examining the relationship of research on Sino-Saviet relations to the
overall DWI research program.
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34. In connection with Project 36.2376, "The Impact of Guided ilea
Miasile Reqpirements Cu the Electroeics Industry of the USSR," Mr.
//EE, visited the Air Force Ballistio Missile Division (BMD) in Inglewood,
Califoraia to obtain cost information an U.S. ballistic missiles.
Aggregate program' data were obtained on the Thor and Titan missiles.
In additioce requiremente personmel in the Office of the Chief of lava'
Operations were consulted on the costs of operational missile systems
used by the Navy.
25X1A9a 35. Ht. I/ZE, travelled to ATIO, Deyton, Ohio, to confer
with personnel of AFCIN-4 on Soviet electronic data processing equipment
and comounications facilities in the Soviet Air Defense System. Infor-
mation received. 'es for use in MIS 11.3.59, "Sino-Soviet Bloc Air Defense
Cepabilties."
36. I/GM, at the reepest of the Chairman, (IC, prepared draft
terms of reference for a proposed GMAIC Subcommittee on Guided Missile
Peoducteon. The GMAIC le considering recommending to USIB the establish-
ment of several formal subcommitteee, one of which would deal vith
predection. As of mid-December, the CIA and Priat members and the Chairman,
amlac, favored the formation of subcommittees on Technical, Collection,
Production and Astronautics intelligence; the other members either
objected (jr, joint Steff and State), or reserved judgment (USAF, Army)
pending examination of draft teems of reference for the proposed subcommit-
tees. Despite the varied. positions' all (MAIC members agree that it
has become virtually *possible for them to keep informed on the vide
range of topics now regularly considered at GMAIC meetings, and reported
on to the USIB.
Champ in Estimates
37. A number of sigeificant changes in the projected course and
mix of Foviet 'military procurement have been inn ?orated in I/ME's
recent contribution to MIE :. In the aggregate,
the value of Soviet procurement is now estimated to have been lover in
the recent past and is projected as appreciably smaller rates of growth.
Thus, instead of doubling over the period 1958-63, it is estimated that
the increase will be on the order of 55-60 percent. The most strikimg
change in the mix is the drastic downward revizion with regard to sire
craft throughout the period. From being the dominant element of procure-
ment for noet of the eeriod, it is now but a relatively small part.
Expenditures for guided missiles have become the dominant element
(although at lower levels than in lest year's estimate) and are respone
Bible for most or the growth projected for the period.
?
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38. The DD// and the AD WE have commended the outstanding contribug.
tion made by and those who worked with him in the
preparation of NIE U-8-59. According to AD/NE, the "performance ---
proves the indispensability of the integral research capability 'which
we have in his division of ORR."
39. MAO, has received a commendation from the
Deputor Commandant of the Industrial College of the Armed Forces for
his effective participation in a seminar on the communist world's
agricultural resources.
4o. OR, has received a commendation from the
Director, Office of Security Trade Controls, USRO for his contribution
to the recent COCOM List Beviev in Paris.
Miscellaneous
41. A donation of $73 was made as a result of the area program
sponsored by Mrs. 1/014, to collect contributions for CARE
in lieu of Christmas card exchange among office colleagues.
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Distribution:
1 . OAR/RR
1 - as Division, Branch
aud Staff Chief
1 - St/I
ociVo
- stir'
OCir2 -.St PR
25X1 A9a St/PR/RR :MMI:blv/4017 (13 Jan 60)
tiFelEmPl!".?
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