PROPOSED PROGRAM (SANITIZED) RESEARCH (FISCAL YEAR 1953)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP61S00750A000300070024-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 25
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 14, 2013
• Sequence Number: 24
• Publication Date: January 1, 1953
• Content Type: LIST

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PROPOSED PROGRAM RESEARCH
(Fiscal Year 1953)
PART I - Proposed Extension of
Fiscal Year 1953
PART II - Studies Suggested by:
A. ONE
B. OCI
C. ORE
D. OSI
TABS 1 - 17
Submitted by:
Offices in DD/I Area
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PART I - PROPOSED EXTENSION OF
PROJECTS TO FISCAL YEAR 1.253 25X1
Study
Antic toted Status
B. Machine Indexinz,
2.119.19.t
1. Status of current study
2. New aspects:
None. It should be
stated however that
while the project
began originally as a
general exploration
in this field, it is
now tailoring the
system to meet
individual require-
ments of CIA.
As originally planned, this study will
extend into F.Y. 1953. The present
target date for completion is 1 November
1952.
RET
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PART II
Studies
A. STUDIES SUGGESTED BY ONE
1. Soviet Estimate
of Probable U.S.
Intentions
2. Analysis of Long-
Range Indicators
of Soviet Courses
of Action
3. Indicators of
Sino-Soviet
Relations
4. Factors Determin-
ing Soviet Bloc
Policy
Description of Points to be Covered
Kremlin's evaluation of probable (TAB 1)
U.S. and Western courses of action,
particularly with respect to initia-
ting a war during the next two-four
years.
Examination of certain past
Soviet domestic policies and
actions in relation ?to subsequent
Soviet foreign courses of action.
It is hoped that such a study would
assist long-range predictions.
(TAB 2)
Search for clues in the state of (TAB 3)
Sino-Soviet relations through
study of relative Soviet and
Chinese influences in Communist
parties in Asia.
Analysis of motivating factors,
specifically ideological ones,
which influence or determine Soviet
Bloc foreign policy.
(TAB 2+)
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PART II
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B. STUDIES SUGGESTED BY OCI
Studies
1. Analysis of World-
Wide Communist
Propaganda Since
the end of War
Descri tion of Points to be Covered
To determine the pattern of Soviet (TAB 5)
moral denunciations of the West.
Their relation to Western events
and subsequent effects on Soviet
policies and action
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PART II C. STUDIES SUGGESTED BY ORE
Studies
Analysis of the
Organization of
and Controls
Within the Soviet
Economy
2. Input - Output .
Index in Soviet
Economy -
3. Essential Non-
Economic Attributes
of Successful
Aggressor Nations
Descriktion of Points to be Covered
It is hoped that this study would (TAB 7)
point to certain vulnerabilities
of Soviet economic structure to
disruption.
Examination of prewar Soviet
statistics for the purpose of
determining the interindustry
relationships and to provide a
basis for current Soviet economic
studies.
(TAB 8)
Examination of factors which (TAB 9)
enabled economically inferior
nations in the past to acquire
control over richer and more highly
civilized peoples. To apply such
criteria to USSR in order to assess
properly the magnitude of the Soviet
threat.
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PART II D. STUDIES SUGGESTED BY OSI
Studies
1. Scientific and
Technical Methods
for the Collection
of Intelligence
Information
P. Methodology for
Forecasting in
Scientific Intel-
ligence
3. Anomalous
Propagation
4. Mechanical
Translation
5. Significant Trends
in Soviet Mathe-
matics
A system of
Numerical Por-
trayals of Air
Defense Capa-
bilities
7. Factors Influenc-
ing Research and
Development and its
Reduction to Practice
in a State Controlled
Economy
Descri tion of Points to be Covered
Search for new scientific and
technical methods for the col-
lection of intelligence informa-
tion through a general survey of
existing methods.
(TAB 10)
A systematic study of the nature (TAB 11)
of scientific and technological
trends with special emphasis on those
in USSR in order to evolve basic
principles, concepts and methods
required to forecast future develop-
ments in USSR.
To survey current state of
knowledge in USA and abroad on
anomalous propagation and its
applicability to the field of
electronic intercept.
(TAB 12)
To design and construct an auto- (TAB 13)
matic mechanical translation
machine, which, if available,
would resolve the most important
bottleneck - translation of foreign
material.
To determine the significant
trends in Soviet mathematics
and their applicability to such
critical phases of research, develop-
ment and design of atomic energy,
etc.
(TAB 1)4)
To develop a numerical method
for measuring the air defense
capabilities of an individual
nation and to permit comparisons
of defensive and offensive
capabilities of any other nation.
(TAB 15)
This would involve a broad study (TAB 16)
which would focus attention on
ma6or factors in the USSR which
influence their research and develop-
ment effort in general and specifically
in the chemical industry.
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PART II D. STUDIES SUGGESTED BY OSI (Continued)
8. Apparatus Used in
Medical Research
Description of Points to be Covered
This study of medical devices (TAB 17)
(other than those in common use)
is needed for guidance in analysis
of Soviet medical research.
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RESEARCH PROPOSAL
SOVIET ESTIMATE OF PROBABLE U.S. INTENTIONS
TAB 1
A study on this subject would cover what the Kremlin would
think, in the light of Communist preconceptions, the U. S. and. the
West were likely to do over the next two-four years, with particular
reference to whether the Kremlin would think the U. S. and the
West were likely to initiate a war against the USSR. It would be
substantially a "think-piece," although supporting research into
current Soviet statements and Soviet histor mi4it be useful.
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RESEARCH PROPOSAL
TAB 2
ANALYSIS OF LONG-RANGE INDICATORS
OF SOVIET COURSES OF ACTION
This study would take basic Soviet policies and actions in
selected fields and attempt to relate them to Soviet foreign
courses of action. The study -would begin by analyzing the shifts
in Soviet capital investment, educational, and other programs
produced by the deepening fear of war in the years preceding
June 1941. It would then analyze similar Soviet actions in the
years since 1945 in an effort to see whether similar shifts are
taking place. Even if the second part of the. study yielded no
significant results, the first part would assist prediction over
longer periods than the usual intelligence "indicators."
1
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TAB 3
RESEARCH PROPOSAL
INDICATORS OF SINO-SOVIET RELATIONS
It is believed that inportant clues to the state of Sino-
Soviet relations may be found through detailed study of relative
Chinese and Russian influence in Communist Parties jn India, Japan,
and perhaps Indochina.
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RESEARCH PROPOSAL
FACTORS DETERMINING SOVIET BLOC POLICY
TAB 11-
1. Scope of the study would be to (a) prepare an analysis
of the nature of those factors that influence or determine the
formulation and execution of Soviet Bloc policy and (b) estimate to
what extent and for what reason such factors are taken into account
by Communist leaders.
2. Particular emphases should be given to determining the
extent of the influence of Communist ideology upon Soviet Bloc
attitudes and actions, although it is recognized that considerations
other than ideologjcal play a role In the Kremlin's decisions.
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TAB 5
RESEARCH PROPOSAL
ANALYSIS OF WORLD-WIDE
COMMUNIST PROPAGANDA SINCE ThEy END OF WAR
1. This study could determine the pattern of Soviet moral
denunciations of the West, relation of this pattern to Western
actions and events and to Soviet actions and policy.
2. The following suggestions are offered:
a. Reconstruction with summary compilation and chrono-
logical presentation on world-wide basis of major Soviet
propaganda campaigns since 19/14. Study to contain particular
emphasis on development, phases, and character of Soviet
peace and signature campaigns since 1(:)49.
b. Study to examine the following:
(1) Progressive characterization of U. S. as Evil
in intent and act.
(2) Relation of this progressive characterization
to standard "base note" of Communist doctrinal moral
denunciations of Capitalist West.
(3) Audience for which any given theme was intended,
i.e., BW - primarily for Chinese?
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TAB 7
RESEARCH PROPOSAT
ANALYSIS OF THE ORGANIZATION OF
AND CONTROLS WITHIN THE SOVIET ECONOMY
A proposed study of the Soviet economic structure from the
point of view of its organization. It is believed that this
project would examine controls and tensions in the Soviet system
which are susceptible to disruption from both within and outside.
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TAB 8
RESEARCH PROPOSAI
INPUT - OUTPUT INDEX IN SOVIET ECONOMY
1. Input - output study based on prewar Soviet statistics
to show the interindustry relationships and to provide a basis
for current studies of Soviet economic capability.
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RESEARCH PROPOSAL
ESSENTIAL NON-ECONOMIC ATTRIBUTES
OF SUCCESSFUL AGGRESSOR NATIONS
TAB 9
To mobilize the resources of the historical profession on
a highly selective basis to study in reasonable breadth and depth
a representative number of instances in which races or nations with
obvious economic inferiority were able to wage successful wars of
conquest leading to political control of reasonable duration over
richer and more highly civilized peoples. The purpose of this
study should be to extract common qualities of phenomena, physio-
logical, moral, organizational, etc., that enabled the conquerors
to achieve the maximum military success with limited economic
resources and scientific skills. It might then be interesting to
apply these criteria to Russia today in order to get an additional
and more subtle appreciation of the magnitude of the threat posed
by her than is possible from appraisal only of her order of battle
and economic capacity.
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TAB 10
RESEARCH PROPOSAL
SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL METHODS
FOR THE COLLECTION OF INTELLIGENCE INFORMATION
1. Until quite recently intelligence collection has been largely
based upon conventional methods which include the use of covert
agent nets, military attache reporting, diplomatic reporting,
exploitation of press, exploitation of radio broadcasts, and
exploitation of foreign specialized and trade publication. During
and since the war, the resources of private individuals and of U.S.
institutions and industrial enterprises have been tapped. Also,
certain scientific methods including such things as noise listening,
etc., have been put to profitable collection use.
2. While all these means have been profitable in varying
degrees, it is quite possible that there are other scientific
and technical methods fcr collecting information which are now
possible, but which are not being used, A study which would
survey present methods might isolate others which could be used
to increase our flow of information.
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RESEARCH PROPOSAL
METHODOLOGY FOR FORECASTING
IN SCIENTIFIC INTELLIGENCE
TAB :a
1. This project would be designed to meet the urgent need
of the intelligence community for a reliable basis for estimating
the Soviet potential in scientific and technological developments
directly applicable to the USSR military potential. It is one of
the primary missions of OSI to estimate what munitions, weapons
systems, and tactics will be used by potential enemies two, three,
five or ten years from the present, based in large part upon fore-
casting ability. Thus, it is proposed that a systematic study be
made of the known Soviet scientific and technological trends and
capabilities in order to evolve the basic intelligence principles,
concepts, procedures and methods required to determine the future
military and technological developments of the USSR. Admittedly,
statistical analysis will have a place in any such studies, includ-
ing an estimate of the reliability of the results.
2. Studies have been made upon forecasting methods in a
limited number of fields in the social sciences, including business
activity, prices, population changes, etc. Very little critical
study has been devoted to methods for forecasting in intelligence,
although some studies are being conducted by the Rand Corporation
in the economic field. A prototype project has been under considera-
tion for the past six months by a small group in this Division
The conclusion
of this group is that additional, and highly qualified personnel
would be required for the project, properly supported by the
intelligence specialists of OSI.
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RESEARCH PROPOSAL
ANOMALOUS PROPAGATION
TAB 12
1. The above project was originally initiated in November 19,
1951, at which time it was agreed that OSI would undertake immediately
a survey of the current state of knowledge in the USA and abroad on
anomalous propagation and its applicability to the field of electronic
intercept.
to prepare a
review of the activities and the state of knowledge on anomalous
propagation both in the United States and abroad.
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RESEARCH PROPOSAI
MECHANICAL TRANSLATION
TAB 13
1. This project is in the nature of extension and supplement
to It is proposed to design and construct
an automatic mechanical translation machine based on the principle
that a limited vocabulary, both basic and technical, could supply
95% or better of seriation translation. Such a translation machine,
if available, would resolve the most important bottleneck of the
intelligence community, namely translation of foreign documents
in the absence of adequate cadres of qualified translators.
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TAB 14-
RESEARCH PROPOSAL
SIGNIFICANT TRENDS IN SOVIET MATHEMATICS
1. In view of the recognized Soviet strength in the field
of mathematics and importance of this in scientific research and
development, it is proposed to establish a project to determine
the significant trends in Soviet mathematics and their applica-
bility to such critical phases of research, development and design
as atomic energy, cosmic rays, computers, telemetering, and other
physics and electronics fields.
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TAB 15
RESEARCR.PROPOS
A SYSTEM OF NUMERICAL PORTRAYALS
OF AIR DEFENSE CAPABILITIES
1. To portray the over-all defensive capabilities of an
individual nation in a numerical manner which would allow compari-
sons with the defensive figures or offensive capabilities of any
other nations; to establish a numerical system, applying percentage
factors which would be representative of various defensive measures,
so that a single Defensive Index Number could be attained which
would be a total of all sub-measures of air defense.
2. It is axiomatic that all governments, within their
economic and geographic capabilities, aim toward perfection in
national defense. It is Obvious, however, that no nation has
ever attained that position, but that all nations have some
measures of defense against air attack which could be expressed
as de facto percentages of a hypothetically effective air defense.
For the purposes of this problem, therefore, the scales are based
upon a definition as follows: An over-all Defensive Index Number
of "100%" means an effective defense (ability to cause prohibitive
rates of attrition upon attacking air forces or weapons) against
air attack On any scale possible within national economies of any
potential enemies or groupments, with any known weapons.
3. The whole being equal to the sum of all its parts, it is
apparent that, in order to obtain an aver-all Defensive Index
Number, the various possible defensive sub-measures must be scored.
Cit: I
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TAB 16,
RESEARCH PROPOSA
FACTORS INFLUENCING RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
AND ITS REDUCTION TO PRACTICE IN A'
STATE-CONTROLLED ECONOMY
1. This study would assess the factors that influence the
direction of research and development, and the selection of the
results of such research and development for reduction to
practice, under a system of state-control (USSR) as contrasted
with the free enterprise system of the West.
2. In appraising the research and development capabilities
of the USSR, it is important to understand the nature of their
scientific research and development effort in prerevolutionary
days, and then the changes that have since been introduced. The
present capabilities of USSR research and development are dependent
upon the success which the Government has had, within the time
between the revolution and the present, to develop not only
capable instructors .but also the number of capable men required
to carry out the large amount of research and development which
has been necessary to expand their industry. Study of the pub-
lished literature and discussions with individuals familiar
with research in Russia before the revolution will provide
authoritative information on the character of prerevolutionary
research. Itemo contributing would be the influence of Western
research through training of Russian scientists, general aspects
of social and economic conditions of scientists in Russia, the
relation of Russian scientists to Russian industry as it existed
then, and the like.
3. The general phase of this study would thus examine care-
fully the evolution of research and development in the USSR from
prerevolutionary to its Marxist character. The following items
should be considered in this evaluation:
a. Propaganda designed to convert scientists to the
Marxist principle, including consideration of the major
personalities responsible, and their successes and failures
in these efforts.
b. Capacity, equipment, and facilities for training
scientific personnel; the quality of training, including
the character of instructors and the numbers in various
categories, such as technicians, undergraduate, and
graduate.
c. Principal centers of training.
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FACTORS INFLUENCING RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
AND ITS REDUCTION TO PRACTICE IN A STATE-CONTROLLED
ECONOMY (Continued
d. Originality of research work and ideas.
e. Organization for research and development.
f. Institutions for specialized research.
g. Relations of scientific organizations with specific
industries.
h. Methods for translating research results to
commercial application.
). As a spemalized phase, At is proposed that a detailed
study be further pursued in the field of chemistry, baking into
account the special technical, economic, and social problems
that are involved. This would include especially those factors
contributing to the cost of producing various classes of important
chemicals and influencing the decisions to manufacture such
chemicals.
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TAB 17
RESEARCH PROPOSAL
APPARATUS -USED IN MEDICAL RESEARCH
1. OSI would like to have information concerning devices,
other than those in common use, which could be used in medical
research such as electron microscope; television tube in ultra-
violet microscopy and roentgenology; and ultrasonic, sonic, and
subsonic rays as they may affect man or bacteria.
2. What would be considered good clues from development or
production of materials, or parts assembly, which might serve as
indicators that the Soviets are producing the electroencephalograph;
the polygraph (not apparatus known by this name for printing purposes);
the electron miscroccope; photographic materials for the study of
cosmic rays; and special electric bulbs and vacuum tubes used in
apparatus for diagnostic and therapeutic purposes (oesophagoscope,
cysi-oscope, etc.)
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