The Consideration of U.S. Capabilities on Intelligence Estimates

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP61S00750A000100040082-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: November 17, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 31, 1997
• Sequence Number: 82
• Publication Date: September 5, 1950
• Content Type: MF

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5 September 1950
IM
0082-5
MEMORANDUM FOR: Assistant Director for Reports and Estimates
Assistant Director for Scientific Intelligence
SUBJECT: The Consideration of U. S. Capabilities in
Intelligence Estimates
REFERENCE: (a) Memorandum for the DCI from AD/ARE, dated
23 August 1950, subject: Coordination of
IM-312
1. Paragraphs 3 of the reference memorandum describes an issue
which the following statement of Agency policy will resolve.
2. CIA intelligence estimates will not contain assessments of
U.S. capabilities, except as outlined below. Requesters should be
informed of this policy whenever appropriate.
3. In estimating the current capabilities and intentions of
foreign powers, U.S. capabilities in the pertinent situation should
be taken into account whenever U.S. resources are either so disposed
as to possess a potential tangibly and substantially affecting the
situation or have actually been committed. The capabilities of
foreign powers are those courses of action, positive or negative, of
which they are factually capable, and which, if adopted, will affect
the accomplishment of U.S. objectives either favorably or adversely.
U.S. capabilities are defined in similar manner. Obviously, U.S.
capabilities must be taken into account insofar as they assist in
determining those courses of action of which a foreign power is
factually capable. Equally obviously, those U.S. capabilities which
are significant in a given situation and of which the foreign power
may be aware must be considered in estimating his intentions, that is,
the relative probability of adoption by him of those courses of action
of which he is capable. Thus U.S. capabilities may be stated as assump-
tions or may be mentioned in discussion in intelligence estimates of a
current situation whenever either treatment is required in the light
of this policy statement. The prohibition given in Paragraphs 2 will,
however, be observed.
4. In current estimates where CIA is unable to obtain the
necessary information of U.S. resources which have a potential in a
situation or which have been committed,, CIA will be compelled to make
logical assumptions. Such assumptions must be clearly stated in the
191961WAF4114'..'
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estimates affected. COAPS is still endeavoring to obtain full re-
sponses from the military departments to our requests that we be
provided with operational information.
5. In long-range estimates, CIA may make assumptions concerning
possible U.S. courses of action for the purpose of estimating their
effect on particular situations. Such assumptions should be clearly
stated.
R. H. HILLENKOETTER
Rear Admiral, USN
Director of Central
Intelligencd.
25X1A9a
Director
Return to COAPS
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