FIFTH ANNUAL PROGRESS REPORT TO THE IAC OF THE ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP61-00549R000100050012-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 6, 2012
• Sequence Number: 12
• Publication Date: August 1, 1956
• Content Type: REPORT

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EIC-D-171+
FIFTH ANNUAL PROGRESS REPORT TO TIIE.IAC
OF THE
ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE C%MTTEE
AUGUST 1956
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
I.
Principal Developments in Economic
Intelligence Coordination
II,
EIC Accomplishments in Fiscal Year 1956
III.
Future Outlook
TAB A.
Organization Chart of the EIC (as of 1 July 1956) 6
TAB B.
X IC Production and Special Activities 7
I. July 1955 - 30 June 1956 (Chart)
TAB C.
EIC Production and Special Activities 8
1 July 1955 -'30 June. 1956' (Annota.ted
Listing)
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FIFTH ANNUAL PROGRESS REPORT TO. THE IAC
ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE
JULY 1955 - JUNE 1956
I. Principal-Developments in Economic Intelligence-Coordination
The year ending 30 June 1956 witnessed a marked extension of Bloc efforts to
gain economic and political advantage by expanding Sino-Soviet economic relations
with. Free World countries. Accordingly, important new EIC efforts were instituted
to provide coordinated intelligence on these developments. At the request of
the Special Assistant to the President for Foreign Economic Policy, a special EIC
working group was established to follow systematically and report regularly
(biweekly and quarterly) on Sino-Soviet foreign economic activities, particularly
in underdeveloped countries of the Free World. Ad hoc EIC working groups were
established to study the "Economic Implications of the Denial of Middle East Oil"
to the Free World and to evaluate the extent of Free World "Copper Exports to
the Sino-Soviet Bloc in 1955." The standing subcommittees of the EIC regularly
provided intelligence support for the consideration of proposed U.S. - Soviet
Bloc exchange visits; and the EIC community-wide survey listings of economic
intelligence research were extended to cover research on Free World countries
which might be subject to Bloc economic influences.
The major attention of the EIC, nevertheless, remained centered on analysis
of the Sino-Soviet Bloc itself. Completed EIC studies on the Bloc in FY 1956
included estimates of Soviet military POL consumption, economic aspects of
Soviet science and technology, and the 195+ patterns of'China's trade and
transport. Major studies still in progress include the study of China's trade
and transport in 1955, Soviet agricultural prospects, revised estimates of the
capacity of the Trans-Siberian Railway, and an analysis of Bloc military trans.-
port capabilities for conducting an offensive into Western Europe (see Section
ITA f: and Tabs B and C attached)
The regular EIC survey listings of economic research completed or in progress
and the periodically revised EIC surveys of priority deficiencies in research and
collection within this field provide aids for programming within government
agencies of economic research on the Sino-Soviet Bloc. Within the framework of
DCID 15/1, greater understanding has been obtained within the intelligence com-
munity of the responsibilities and capabilities of the various agencies for the.
production of economic intelligence in the interests of national. security. This
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has resulted in greater exchange of knowledge and information among professional
and technical personnel in the various agencies at the working level, and more
effective and rapid coordination of responses to special requests placed upon
the EIC. Some economic intelligence questions can now be most efficiently
answered by single agency effort or by informal consultation among analysts of
two or more agencies. Accordingly some of the EIC subcommittees have become
less active and the EIC discontinued, in January, its Subcommittee on Armaments.
The EIC Working Group on Guided Missiles was disbanded in December after formation
of the Guided Missile Intelligence Committee of the IAC.
II. EIC Accomplishments in Fiscal Year 1956
A. Major Studies and Related Support Activities
During this year coordinated ESC studies were produced on six.different
1. The new EIC Working Group on Sino-Soviet Bloc Economic Activities
in Underdeveloped Areas published ten biweekly reports on the developing Soviet
economic offensive in the Free World. About 500 copies of each issue are cur-
rently distributed; 60 copies of future issues are to be sent regularly to U.S.
Foreign Service posts.25X1 25X1
2. The annual
and Transport met in June in
conclusions on China's trade
(unilateral) report for 1955
EIC-Rl-S5.
gence Conference on Communist China's Trade
and issued an agreed summary of principal
and transport for 1955, A more detailed US
is now under revision for early publication as
3. Three other EIC studies on special problems were completed, covering
the "Economic Implications of the Denial of Middle East Oil", "Estimated Military
Consumption of Petroleum Products by the Sino-Soviet Bloc, 1950-1955?"; and a
contribution to NIE 11-6-56 on "Capabilities and Trends of'Soviet Science and
Technology". In addition, the EIC provided support to a coordinated study of
the "Armored Fighting Vehicle Industry of the Soviet Bloc, 1945-1955", now in
publication by ACSI.
B. Review of Research and Other'Support of Research Programming
1. The EIC again issued semi-annual and annual survey listings of
internal and external economic research projects on the.Sino-Soviet Bloc, covering
the calendar year 1955. Underdeveloped areas of the Free World were covered for
the first time by a similar survey listing (for the year 1954) which it is planned
to bring up to date and expand in the near future.
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2. Four surveys of priority deficiencies in research or collection were
approved and published for particular sectors of the Bloc economy, and twelve
others are currently in preparation. Account has been taken of identified re-
search deficiencies in the annual programming of the agencies primarily responsible.
C. Improvement of Collection Requirements and Other Support for
Collection Activities
1. The EIC Subcommittee on Requirements and Facilities for Collection
completed preparation of a Bibliography of Requirements Manuals and Guides
available in the community for interrogation on Economic and Scientific and
Technical intelligence on the Sino-Soviet Bloc. Since many of the collection aids
therein listed cut across several fields this bibliography was coordinated with
the Scientific Estimates Committee, Joint Atomic Energy Intelligence Committee
and Guided Missiles Intelligence Committee.
2. The Requirements Subcommittee continued to be the focus of a number
of other continuing community-wide efforts to improve collection requirements for
economic information and guidance for collection activities.
b. Economic Reporting Guidance-Program
During FY-1956 additional reporting guidance, maps and photo-
graphic equipment were supplied Foreign Service economic reporting officers in
Moscow, Bucharest, Budapest, Prague and Warsaw, which contributed to the-.con-
tinued improvement in the quality of economic reporting from Moscow and the
European Satellites.
c. Procedures for Filling Priority Collection Gaps
For several years the EIC has sought to develop procedures for
obtaining more effective coordinated action in response to EIC-approved surveys
of priority collection deficiencies. It is now generally agreed that the process
of preparing such surveys of priority gaps is itself the best means of assuring
remedial action. In the process of their preparation by individual subcommittees,
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principal deficiencies in reporting become more clearly identified by the
officers concerned -- who then serve collection requirements on the field
through the-regular mechanisms of their respective:agencies. Furthermore., the
EIC-approved surveys are referred to the Requirements Subcommittee in order
that any additional appropriate action may be taken.
'D. Other Activities (See Tabs B and C. attached)
1. Technical Advice on Exchange Proposals
During the latter part of the year the IAC Standing Committee on
Exchanges increasingly called on the members of EIC subcommittees for their
technical advice and suggestions in connection with proposed visits of Bloc
technicians to the U. S. in exchange for visits of U. S. technicians to the
Soviet Bloc. To date ten EIC subcommittees have been asked to comment on one
or more specific exchange proposals and have provided detailed responses.
2. Support for National Intelligence Estimates
As part of its responsibility for systematic evaluation of the
efforts of the.economic intelligence community, the EIC had-appointed a special
group of its members to'examine the problem. The recon endations of this group
as approved in August 1955 placed primary emphasis on improved. support for the
National Intelligence Estimates program. In line with these recommendations,
the EIC specifically considered the economic portions of 'the Post Mortems on
NIE 11-5-55., "Air Defense of the Sino-Soviet Bloc, 1955-60"; and NIE 13-56,
"Chinese Communist Capabilities and Probable Courses of Action Through 1960",
to assure that appropriate remedial actions were being taken by the various
responsible agencies. The EIC has recently undertaken to prepare a statement of
Priority National Economic Intelligence Objectives as a means of identifying
and expanding the economic aspects of'DCID 1i-/5, Priority National Intelligence
Objectives.
3. Reviews of External Economic Research Projects (See Annex to Tab c
attached)
25X1
In accordance with D.CID 15/1, seven proposals for external research,
involving contracts totalling approximately F----Iwere favorably reviewed.
4. Other Subcommittee and Working Group, Activities
The subcommittees continued the development and maintenance of
agreed basic statistics in their separate fields of responsibility. A number
of subcommittees discussed important substantive papers in their fields, and
explored differences in methods of analysis used. The Transportation Subcommittee
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in particular has made major progress toward developing agreed technical
methodologies, and is increasingly relying on the full-time interagency working
group sponsored by ACSI for coordinated development of important estimates in
the Subcommittee's field of interest.
III. Future Outlook
As the EIC enters its sixth year of community-wide coordination of econ-
omic intelligence no particular problems appear to call for special emphasis. It
may be expected that future work will generally continue along present lines, with
increasing attention to the economic activities of the Bloc in Free World countries.
25X1
OTTO E. GU7
Chairman
Economic Intelligence Committee
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SECRET
PR
ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE
ODUCTION AND SPECIAL ACTIVITIES
FY 1955/56
REQUIREMENTS
SUBCOMMITTEE
Development of Procedures for
Correcting Priority Deficiencies in Collection
Exchange of
Collection and Interrogation Manuals
Coordination of the
Comprehensive Economic Reporting Program
(CERP)
Working Group on
Sino-Soviet Bloc Economic Activities in
Underdeveloped Areas
Working Group oa
Transportation Capabilities Estimates
(Sponsored by ACSI)
Technical Advice to the
IAC Standing Committee on Exchanger
REVIEWS OF
PROGRAMS AND FACILITIES
LISTINGS OF
COMPLETED AND 5-21
PLANNED RESEARCH
SUBCOMMITTEE PSC-WP-1
WORKING PAPER
EIC WP-4
WORKING PAPER
ACSI REPORT {P-11
EIC Working Group Biweekly Reports on
Sino-Soviet Bloc Economic Activities in
Underdeveloped Acese
Communist China's Imports and Exports, 1954:
Trade and Transport Involved (Joint US-UK)
Economic Implications of the
Denial of }fiddle East Oil
Military Cooanmption of
Petroleum Products-
Sino-Soviet Bloc, 1950-55
EIC Contribution to NIE i1-6-56,
"Capabilities and Trends of
Soviet Science and Technology"
Armored Fighting Vehicle Industry
of the Soviet Bloc, 194.0-50
(EIC assistance to ACSI)
ORITY GAPS
IN RESEARCH ON
IN COLLECTION
ON S-16(12-Ic
SINO-SOVIET BLOC
Internal and External
Governmental Research on Selected
Peripheral Non-Bloc Aresa (1954)
Internal and External
Goveramental Research Projects on the
Sino-Soviet Bloc (let half 1955)
Internal and External
Governmental Research Projects on the
Sino-Soviet Blue (1955)
Bibliography of Economic and Scientific
and Technical Guide Acquirements
SECRET
SUBSTANTIVE
SUBCOMMITTEES
AND WORKING GROUPS
Review- of Proposed
External Research Projects
Development of
Agreed Buie Statistics
Review of Substantive Papers
and Methodologies
OTHER ASSIGNMENTS
SUPPORTING THE
INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY,
UNDERTAKEN BY VARIOUS
SPECIAL WORKING GROUPS
AS ACTIVATED
Inventorying of Government and
Government-Sponsored Economic Research
and Related Matters
Working Group for Systematic Evaluation
of the Effort of the Intelligence Community
(Completed)
Consideration of Post llortemo on:
NIB 11-5-55. "Air Defense of the Sino-Soviet
Bloc, I950-1960" (Electronics Production Aspects)
(Completed)
\IE 13-56, "Chinese Communist Capabilities
and Probable Courses of Action through 1960"
J. Progress)
Working Group on Guided Missiles
Economic Intelligence
(Discontinued)
Working Group on Priority
National Economic Intelligence Objectives
(In Progress)
Working Group on Copper Exports
to the Sino-Soviet Bloc in 1955
(In Progress)
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EIC PRODUCTION AND SPECIAL ACTIVITIES
1 July 1955 to 30 June 1956
I. Reports and Special Studies
Completed Reports and Studies
EIC Designation
EIC-.WGR-1/1
through 1/10
EIC-R-15
Preliminary
EIC-RI- S1F
EIC-PSC-WP-1
EIC-P-11
(ACSI Report)
EIC-WP-2i-
Title
EIC Working Group Biweekly Reports on
Sino-Soviet Bloc Economic Activities
in Underdeveloped Areas
Economic Implications of the Denial of
Middle East Oil
Communist China's Imports and Exports,
1954: Trade and Transport Involved
Military Consumption of Petroleum
Products Sino-Soviet Bloc, 1950-55
Armored Fighting Vehicle Industry of
the Soviet Bloc
(To be published by Department of the
Army, ACSI, with acknowledgment of EIC
assistance in preparation..)
EIC Contribution to NIE 11-6-56,.
"Capabilities and Trends of Soviet Science
and Technology"
Requestor
Special Assistant
to the President
for Foreign Economic
Policy
NSC Planning Board
through DD/I, CIA
ONE
through
SEC
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B. Reports and Studies in Progress
as of 30 Juae 19
EIC-WGR-1 Series EIC Working Group Biweekly Reports on
Sino-Soviet Bloc Economic Activities
in Underdeveloped Areas
(Continuing Series)
EIC-Rl-S5
EIC-R9-S1
EIC-P-16
Communist China's Imports and Exports,
1955: Trade and Transport Involved
Revision of EIC-R-9, "Capability of the
Trans-Siberian Railroad and Connecting
Lines in Manchuria and Korea
Sino-Soviet Bloc Postwar Economic
Activities in Underdeveloped Areas
(This summary of postwar activities
initiates a series of quarterly
reports on subject.)
EIC-P-12 Policies, Performances and Prospects
of Soviet Agriculture
EIC-R-14
Copper Shipments to the Sino-Soviet
Bloc in 1955
EIC-P-6 Economic Capabilities of the Soviet
Bloc to Support a General War Under
Certain Assumptions
EIC-P-8 Soviet Bloc's 1955-56 Military
Transportation Capability to Launch
and Support Campaigns into the Area
between the Baltic Sea and the Alps
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Special Assistant
to the President
for Foreign Economic
Policy
Special Assistant
to the President
for Foreign, Economic
Policy
State Department
State Department
Jo.int?Staff
.through
IAC
WSEG
through
IAC
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II. EIC Surveys
o Surveys Completed
EIC-S-23
EIC-S-5/2
EIC-S-1/7
Section I
EIC-5-16/2
EIC-S-16/12 (c)
Section I
EIC-S-16/12 (a)
Section I
Report of Internal and External Economic
Research Projects on Selected Peripheral
Non-Bloc Areas (1 January 1954 through
31 December 1954)
1955 Semiannual Report of Internal and
External Economic Research Projects on
the Sino-Soviet Bloc (1 January 195-5
through 30 June 1955)
1955 Annual Report of Internal and External
Economic Research Projects on the Sinn-
Soviet Bloc (1 January 1955 through
31 December 1955)
Bibliography of Economic and Scientific
xr a Technical Guide Requirements
25X1
Priority Deficiencies of Research on the
Sing-Soviet Bloc Armaments Industries
Section.I0 USSR
Priority Deficiencies of Collection on the
Sino-Soviet Bloc Armaments Industries
Section I. USSR
Priority Deficiencies of Collection on the
Sino-Soviet Bloc Transportation Systems
Part c Highways
Section I. USSR
Priority Deficiencies-of Collection on the
Sing-Soviet Bloc Transportation Systems
Part d. Inland Waterways
Section I. USSR
EIC
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B. ETC Surveys in Prrofress
as of 30 e 9~6
EIC--S-24
EIC-S-1f 3
EIC-S-1/6
EIC-S-1/8 (a)
Section II
EIC-S-:1/8 (b)
Section II
EICy-S,-i/9 (e)
EIC-S-1/ll
EIC-S-1/12
EIC-5-1/13
EIC-S-16/6 (a)
Section IT
Priority National Economic Intelligence IAC
Objectives
Priority Def ici.encies .of Research on Sino- EIC
Soviet Bloc Trade and Finance
Priority Deficiencies. of Research in the EIC
Field of General Economic Analysis of the
Sino-Soviet Bloc
Priority Deficiencies of Research on Sino* EIC
Soviet Bloc Electronics and Telecommunications
Part a. Equipment Production
Section IT. Communist China
.Priority Deficiencies. of Research on Sino- EIC
Soviet Bloc Electronics and Telecommunications
Part b. Facilities (installations)
Section IT. Communist China
Priority Deficiencies of Research on the Sino- ETC
Soviet Bloc Transportation System,$
Part e. Air Transportation
Priority Deficiencies of Research on the Sing- EIC
Soviet Bloc Electric Power and Solid Fuels
Priority Deficiencies of Research on. Sino- EIC
Soviet Bloc Industrial Machinery and. Equipment
Priority Deficiencies of Research on Sino- EIC
Soviet Bloc Shipbuilding
Priority Deficiencies of 'Collection on Sino- ETC
Soviet Bloc Electronics and. Telecommunications
Part a. Equipment Production
Section IT. Communist China
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B. EIC Surveys in Progress
as of 30 June 1956
EIC-S-16/6 (b)
Section II.
Priority Deficiencies of Collection on Sino-
Soviet Bloc Electronics and Telecommunications
EIC
Part b. Facilities (Installations)
Section II. Communist China
EIC-S-1612 (e)
Priority Deficiencies of Collection on Sino-
Soviet Bloc Transportation-Systems
Part e. Air Transportation
EIC -S -1613
Priority Deficiencies of Collection on Sino-
Soviet Bloc Shipbuilding
EIC-SRA-1
List of Key Soviet Personnel Concerned with
Electronics
Subcommittee
Research and Production in the Electrotechnical
& Telecom-
Research Aid
Industry of the USSR
munications
Subcommittee,
EIC
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TAB C
III..: CONTINUING EIC SPECIAL ACTIVITIES
OF THE; EIC SUBCOMMITTEE ON REQUI.R NTS.AND:FACILXTIE FOR :COLLATION
1. Coordination 25X1
Collection
B. OF OTHER SUBCOMMITTEES. ,AND WORKING GROUPS
1. Completed Activities
Working Group for Systematic Evaluation, of the Effort of the.
Intelligence Community
Consideration of'Post Mortem on NIX 11-5-55,."Air Defense.of
the-Sino-Soviet Bloc,. 1955-.60" (electronics production.' aspect
EIC Working Group on Guided Missiles Production (discontinued)
2. In .Progress or Continuing
Working Group on Sinop-Soviet Bloc Economic Activities in
Underdeveloped Areas
2~ Economic Reporting Guidance Program
3. Development of Procedures for Correcting PriorityDeficiencies in
Working Group on Transportation Capabilities-Estimates
(under ACSI sponsorship)
Technical Advice to the IAC Standing Committee on Exchanges
Review of Proposed External,. Research Projects (see Annex to
Tab C, f).;
Development of Agreed Basic Statistics
Review of Substantive. Papers and Methodologies
Continuing Exchange of Chinese Trade Information
Consideration of Post Mortem on NIE'.13-56, "Chinese Communist
Capabilities. and Probable Courses of Action through 19601T
13 a
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TAB.C - ANNEX
Eazteraal Economic Research .Pr. e jects
Reviewed by ETC During Fiscal Year 1256
In accordance with the provisions of DCID 15/1, the following government-
sponsored external economic research projects were reviewed by the EIC during
fiscal year 1956. In all cases the projects were favorably considered.
Title
Sponsoring
Agency
Agriculture in Certain South- Army
east Asian Countries
Process Analysis of the Air Force
-Primary metals industries
Panning Study of the Soviet Air Force
Aeavy Machine Building
Industry
Development of Data Arrays. Air Force
and Techniques for Target
Analysis of the People's
Republic of China
Data and Techniques for
Estimating .Soviet Bloc
Military Capabilities
and Growth
Air Force
Amount of
Contractor Contract-
Dept. of Agriculture
Arthur D. Little,Inc., $117,000
Cambridge, Mass.
University of North $ 88,500
Carolina& Chapel.
Rill, N. C.
Council for Economic $160,000
& Industry Research,
Inc.., Wash., D.C.
Council for Economic $365,000
& Industry Research,
Inc., Wash.,. D.C.
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