ORR CONTRIBUTION TO THE SEMI-ANNUAL REPORT TO THE PRESIDENT'S BOARD OF CONSULTANTS ON FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE ACTIVITIES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP61-00391R000200300002-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: November 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 22, 1998
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: October 9, 1958
• Content Type: REPORT

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9 October 1958
ORR CONTRIBUTION To THE -ANNUAL REPORT
TO THE PRESIDENT'S BOARD OF CONSULTANTS
ON FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE ACTIVITIES
$. Economic and Geographic Intelligence Production
A. Economic. Research on the economic aspects of Soviet military
technology and supporting scientific activity has continued to
receive major emphasis during this period. ORR was the principal
contributor on the economic factors affecting operational capa-
bilities in guided missiles and space vehicles for a recent National
Intelligence Estimate. A significant contribution was made to a
Special National Intelligence Estimate on the strength and composi-
tion of the Soviet long-range bomber force. The Office also contri-
buted to an estimate of Soviet nuclear attack capabilities and Soviet
air-defense capabilities in 1962 in suport of the Net Evaluation
Subcommittee of the National Security Council. This contribution
included scheduling and costing of these programs and an assessment
of their impact on the Soviet economy. Special support was provided
for a report to the NSC on the evaluation of the new Soviet "MM."
ORR is doing the bulk of the research on the economic aspects
of the Soviet atomic energy program for a National Intelligence
Estimate on.this subject. An interim review was conducted of an
ORR-sponsored external research project on economic criteria for the
establishment of nuclear power plants. It is anticipated that this
.project will contribute to a better understanding of the economic
aspects of the Soviet atomic energy program.
Research is now under way on the production goals and claims of
Communist China for its "leap forward" program. Close attention is
also being given to recent organizational developments in Communist
China, which place emphasis on small-scale industry, local administra-
tive direction of most economic activity, and the organization of
Chinese society into communes. These developments are unprecedented
in the Sino-Soviet Bloc, and their social, cultural, and economic
consequences may be of great significance.
Among the projects on subjects of priority interest completed
during the period were: an analysis of the policies, performance,
and prospects of Soviet agriculture; the first comprehensive study
of the Soviet telecommunications industry; a thorough review of Soviet
shipbuilding, including a forecast of future trends and an assessment
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of the economic and military implications of this activity; a study
of the Soviet construction industry relating this activity to the
slowing rate of increase in industrial production; and a study of
the Soviet civil aviation industry and its potential for inter-
national expansion.
Research is continuing on such topics of long-range interest
as Sino-Soviet Bloc economic activities in underdeveloped countries
and. the size, growth, and structure of the Bloc economies. A com-
prehensive set of national accounts for the USSR covering 1950 has
been completed, and accounts for the years 1956 and 1957 are under
way. These, along with 1955 accounts already completed, will pro-
vide a more precise description of growth trends in the Soviet Union.
A report on Chinese national income and production for 1952-1957 will
be published within the next few months.
In connection with the Taiwan Straits situation, ORR reported
on: the status of Soviet deliveries to China; the Chinese POL supply
situation; coastal shipping activities; and rail transportation
bottlenecks, with particular reference to the Yingtan-Amoy Railroad.
B. Geo ra hic. Continued emphasis was given to geographic analyses in
support of intelligence on Soviet guided missile and nuclear energy
activity. In anticipation of the possible guided missile activity
in Communist China, research was also devoted to the identification
of possible teat and training ranges in that country for various
types of missiles. The production of related intelligence on Soviet
programs in geodesy,, cartography, and gravimetry has moved into a
new phase in which a study is also made of the possible use by the
Soviets of earth satellites for establishing intercontinental
geodetic ties.
Geographic support of the interagency unconventional warfare
planning program led to the completion of special feasibility
studies covering most of the selected priority areas in the Sino
Soviet Bloc,.South Asia, and the Near East. As a further develop-
ment of this work, a pilot unconventional warfare training study is
being prepared for the use of the Army Special Forces at Fort Bragg.
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an accelerated program to produce
Soviet Bloc has been undertaken.
c11y pssns on Z
Reporting of Soviet activities in Antarctica was stepped up
in response to new Soviet programs of Antarctic exploration and
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research. Several analyses of the geographic implications of these
programs were prepared for planners (including the Operations Coordi-
nating Board--00B) concerned with U. S. operations in the area.
11. Malor Intelligence Gaps
A. Economic Intelligence. Major We continue to exist in information
an Soviet loc military programs and expenditures. These concern
not only the guided missiles programs but also the production of
strategic chemicals, electronic equipment, and other items which
support these program and an the production of other military end
items. Other important gaps include information on: Sino-Soviet
Bloc economic activities which might provide indications of Bloc
intentions in such situations as the crisis in the Taiwan Straits;
traffic volume and density data by rail system in the USSR, infor-
eaaticmn which would not only provide a measure of economic activity
but also give an indication of the supply situation in China and
the Soviet Far Lust; drawings on Bloc credits to underdeveloped
countries, needed to assess the current status of the Bloc penetra-
tion activity; and details of the 1957 economic reorganization of
the USSR.
B? ephic Intelligence. A lack of up-to-date large- or mediumm-
s01 teoggraphic maps of the Sino-Soviet Bloc continues to be a
Critical intelligence M. A significant though limited success
wie recently achieved in the collection of 1 USSR sheet of a new
11,000,000 series published by the Soviet Military Topographic
Adainietration and 20 sheets of the new at German 1:25,000 series.
III. Dissection and Utilization of ORE Products
";A&19 ,rya in secZion I above ORR has.
sates an the economic aspects of the Soviet ...: guided miesss l i1eeu space
cle, and atomic ever ,
to national Intelligence gy programs and has ZRAIS moor contributions
to the Soviet estimates of the strength and composition
1029-range bomber force. As adviser to the Economic
$wfenae Advisory'CO?mittee (MAC) and the U. S. Delegation to the
Paris COCOM and Consultative Group meetings an strategic trade
erols, this office provided extensive economic intelligence sup-
port for recut interrati0eaa1 negotiations on trade controls.. Con-
ti d concern over the Soviet economic offensive by such groups as
tbt OCB and the Presidents Council an Foreign Rcoenomic Policy (CFA)
rs aired preparation by ORR of an increasing number of repra on
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this sub eot. The OCB and the CM were also consumers of an OBR
etudY which highlights the threat of Soviet cawwatition in inter-
aatioua1 civil aviation.
'i'bis Office has played an incre"iag],f important role in
preparing material for release to the public revealing the threat
of the growing Soviet economy, and the focus and objectives of Soviet
!comic activities in the underdeveloped areas. This support bas
included material for speeches by public officials, assistance in the
preparation of the State Department White Paper on the Soviet economic
Offensive, assistance to the 2 siness Advisory Council (BAC) at the
Department of Commerce, and the preparation of unclassified material
for release by the International Cooperation Administration (ICA).
Direct short of the targeting efforts of the Air Force was
emtf w d by providing semi-annual estimates of the production of
Hlected Soviet industrial installations.
Among the more notable appreciations of ORR?a economic
intelligence activities were coaamcndations from Mr. BI.msr Staats,
the acuttiv+e Officer of the on, for intelligence provided on
Soviet ecOnormic penetration activities; and from Vice Admiral J H.
sides, Director of WSW, for intelligence provided on Soviet military
t~nsportation capabilities.
IF.
e ~..~f..+j...rv wresa.~[s 61warG
in eoftsy, gravity try, and mapping was pro-
?idd to the OCB and the Air 'Technical Intelligence Center (ATIC),
Wright Patterson Air Force Beams. 25X 1 B 1 a
As indicated in section I above, ORB is providing: geographic
InteUt nce wort to the iiteragmncy unconventional lanm
Alm per' and
eqnmrt to tlae on viet Antarctic activities.
Utters of appreciation have included caresendatior from Henry
Cabot Lodp,, U. S. Representative to the United 'Nations., for carto-
Omphic support for his presentation on an internaticua1 inspection
labe.aiinst surprise attack over the.Arctic region, and from the
Usecial Adviser on Geoz'uphy, Department of State, for various maps
GIA geographic reports recently produced in short of the Department.
kday to Collectors and Intelli?ence Collection Activities 25X1C10b
A.$ntelliaence.
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An
analyst Is Participating in a program for interrogating
Spanish returnees Who might have knowledge of the Soviet guided
missile program and of other programs of priority economic intelli-
gence interest. In addition, ORR is mainte-ining clone contact with
developments in the U. S. missile program and is acquiring data of
considerable value for the collection and analysis of information
on Soviet activities in this field.
Action has been initiated to improve Travel Folder guidance
materials through the elimination of by priority targets with
c
oncentration on fever, high-priority
Guidance and assistance is being provided to State Department
economic reporting officers in the Soviet Bloc vho are having an
increasing number of tUortunities to contact high-level Soviet
economists; and greater attention is being given to requirements for
service attaches in the Bloc vho are proving to be important sources
Of information In the fields of guided missiles, construction, com-
smnIcatione, and transportation. The. availability of Sino-Soviet
Bloc publications continues to grow in volume and importance as
sources of economic and geographic informations In this connection,
ORE has participated in recent meetings designed to strengthen the
translation services. -
CM recently introduced an improved, more systematic procedure
for preparing requirements to reflect priority gaps in information
wbich'are related to Priority National BaonCmic intelligence
Objectives. It is intended that these requirements will provide
'fie basis for BIG coordinated statements of priority needs.
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B. Geographic Intelligence. The interagency program for collection of
S~ topographic maps has been expanded to include all Soviet
satellites. A representative of the Army Nap Service (Aim) has been
detailed to vork full time with CIA personnel on this effort.
Guidance which provides coordinated statements of scale and area
priorities for the satellite countries is now under preparation for
the use of clandestine collectors.
Recent geographic attache negotiations with mapping
or nizations in Poland and Yugoslavia are expected to produce a
Dow flow of significant maps and geographic data from these countries.
V. CoordisetIon of Economic Intelligence
DCID 3/1 covering economic intelligence production and coordination
we prepared by the ffiC and approved by the IAC.
A survey of professional personnel within the U. S. Government
*Wpd in economic research of intelligence significance an Bloc and
am-Bloc areas vas approved by the BIC. This survey vas disseminated
to all departments and agencies en gad in economic intelligence research
for their information and guidance in planning and organizing their
respective research activities and as a reference guide in obtaining
desired assistance from other departments. and agencies.
Continued attention has been given to RIC studies of Sino-Soviet
Bloc economic activities in underdevelo
ed areas
In
dditi
t
d
p
.
a
ons
o wi
e
25X1X7 t~iatributiou of these biweekly and semi-annual reports within the U. S.
the biwee
kly reports of the IC Working Group in response to a request
thn the OCB. A review and revision of the SIC statements of priority
research and collection deficiencies are scheduled in order to tie
these statements more closely to the revised Priority National Economic
Intelligence Objectives.
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At the request of the Special Assistant to the Secretary of State
for Atomic Energy and Disarmament, ORB initiated, coordinated, and com-
pleted an interagency report on the problems and feasibility of an
igspection program for a possible US-USSR agreement to ban production
MA deployment of long-range ballistic missiles.
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We PLwning for Wartime Operations
Economic and geographic intelligence personnel participated in the
1958 operation Alert exercise. An ORR representative has been serving
as a member of the General Committee on Mobilization Planning for
manic Warfare and has participated in discussions of the Economic
Defense Intelligence Committee concerning the role of the economic
defense intelligence community in mobilization planning. Recognizing
that one of the principal problems of planning for wartime operations
centers on coordinated interagency understanding of possible wartime
relationships among agencies with related responsibilities, the Economic
Intelligence Cciittee has established an ad hoc working group to examine
the impact of war on the organization and functions of the EIC and to
eftmine problems which might arise in a wartime emergency situation. In
addition, plans are being made to initiate bilateral discussions with
other agencies to further clarify the possible wartime needs and capa-
bilities of agencies concerned with -the fields of both economic and
geographic intelligence. These discussions will be undertaken within
the framework of directives from the Intelligence Boards
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