PROSPECTS FOR INCREASED TERRORISM AGAINST THE UNITED STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE LATEST BOMBING IN BEIRUT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP09-00438R000605820003-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 1, 2012
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: September 28, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

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DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
28 September 1984
Prospects for Increased Terrorism Against the United States
in the Wake of the Latest Bombing in Beirut
Although the bombing of the US Embassy Annex in Beirut could
well signal a new wave of terrorist attacks against US personnel
and facilities around the world, we see no indications at present
that any coordinated effort by international terrorists is
underway. Rather, the principal threat continues to come from
the Middle East, where Iran, working through and with various
fundamentalist Shiite terrorist groups, appears to be undertaking
a concerted program of terror to drive any US presence or
influence out of Lebanon. Over the next several months, Iranian-
connected groups are likely to launch additional attacks against
Americans in Lebanon, and possibly in other Middle Eastern
States. The most likely targets will be diplomatic and military
personnel and their official facilities and residences--though
civilians will not be exempt--with terrorists choosing those that
appear most vulnerable. Though we cannot rule out Iranian-
inspired attacks outside the Middle East, anti-American terrorism
in other regions is more likely to be stimulated largely by local
or regional issues. In Latin America, Americans will be most
vulnerable in El Salvador, particularly if a new rebel offensive
begins, and in Colombia, where established terrorist groups have
been plotting against senior diplomatic personnel. In Europe,
attacks most likely would come from radical leftist groups in
France, Italy, Greece, or Turkey.
This memorandum was prepared by
Terrorism Analysis Branch, Instability and Insurgency Center,
office of Global Issues. The information provided here is
current through 28 September 1984. Comments or queries may be
directed to the Chief, Terrorism Analysis Branch,
Copy
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Prospects for Increased Terrorism Against the United States
in the Wake of the Latest Bombing in Beirut
Indications of Heightened Threat
Several considerations lead us to anticipate that serious
incidents of anti-American terrorism could occur over the next
several months.
0 The latest spectacular suicide bombing against the
United States in Beirut by the so-called Islamic Jihad--
the third since April of 1983--is significant in two
ways: on one level, it signals Iran's continuing
willingness to use terrorism to attempt to get the
United States out of Lebanon; on another, however, it
serves as a powerful example and possible incentive to
users of terrorism in other countries.
o The coming Presidential election in the United States
offers an inviting opportunity for some terrorist groups
to attempt to showcase their grievances and to influence
the campaigns of the candidates and perhaps even the
results of the voting, as Iran did through the hostage
crisis tour years ago.
Duirng the first nine months of 1984, terrorist attacks
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against US persons and facilities around the world have been
marginally below those tallied in the comparable period of past
years, and there are no indications that the tempo has
accelerated in recent months. Moreover, the character and number
of explicit threats--most of which turn out to be groundless--
have not noticeably changed since the beginning of 1984. In
fact, when the Middle East is excluded from the 1984 count,
international terrorist activity elsewhere in the world actually
has been running at low to moderate levels compared to the last
two years.
Any increase in terrorism would most likely come in the form
of more vicious, casualty-producing attacks against Americans
than as a significant increase in the number of attacks. over
the past several years, the principal users of terrorist tactics
have increasingly favored the bomb as their weapon of choice, and
this has been particularly true in the Middle East. Moreover,
though diplomatic and military personnel and their facilities and
residences would be the most likely targets, many Middle Eastern
and European terrorist groups have shown a growing willingness to
hit "softer" targets--civilians and low-level officials.
Consequently, it a new campaign of terrorism were to start,
especially in the Middle East, any American should be viewed as
at some, if only incidental, risk. This is particularly true in
that many terrorist groups tend to choose their specific targets
on the basis of apparent vulnerability.
There are no indications at present that any new campaign of
terrorism against the United States would come as a worldwide,
coordinated effort. There is occasionally contact between
terrorist groups--typically on such matters as weapons
exchanges--but most have unique motivations and goals
What orchestration occurs comes mainly
through state supporters like Iran or Syria, and tends to be
region-specific and limited to groups under their influence.
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Regional Perspective
Middle East and Africa
Terrorism originating in the Middle East poses the greatest
near term threat to US persons and facilities. The number of
attacks on interests by Middle Eastern terrorists thus far in
1984 are up sharply over 1983, while attacks by terrorists in
other regions have declined or remained roughly constant. The
Iranian threat exists in the Middle East and beyond, and Iranian-
sponsored groups, such as the Hizballah (Party of God) in Lebanon
and the Dawa (Islamic Call Party), are the most dangerous. The
Iranian threat also extends beyond the Middle East into Europe.
Among the Palestinian groups, only the Syrian controlled groups
Abu Nidal and possibly Saiqa pose a serious threat to US
interests. one or
two other radical Palestinian groups could target US
facilities. We believe the Palestinian threat in the near term
is limited to Turkey and the Middle East. An act of Liby n-
sponsored terrorism against
US target has never
occurred, but
Libya may be inciting terrorists
in Africa and the Middle East to attack American targets on its
behalf.
Iranian-Sponsored Terrorism Radical Lebanese Shias--
operating under the cover name of Islamic Jihad--pose the most
serious terrorist threat to US interests. These religious
fanatics are dedicated to eliminating the US presence in Lebanon,
and their willingness to sacrifice their lives in pursuit of this
goal makes them virtually impossible to deter. Iran has provided
religious indoctrination, military training, and material support
to the extremist Shias. This support has enabled them to conduct
successful, sophisticated terrorist operations, particularly in
the chaotic atmosphere of Lebanon.
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The radical Shias are the leading suspects in three major
terrorist attacks against US facilities in Beirut during the last
18 months, including the recent bombing of the US Embassy Annex
in a Christian-controlled suburb of East Beirut. This attack
clearly demonstrates their capability to
Iran continues to recruit and train radical Shias from
nearly all the Arab States in the Persian Gulf, and
some of these individuals have been infiltrated back
anywhere inside
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into their homelands for potential terrorist activities. Iraqi
and Kuwaiti members of the Shia Dawa Party were responsible for
the bombing of the US Embassy and other US targets in Kuwait in
December 1983, probably with the assistance of more experienced
Lebanese Shia terrorists. No attacks on US targets in the
Persian Gulf have occurred since then, but the Iranian terrorist
threat remains serious. Iran views the United States as the
principal backer of the moderate regimes that Tehran would like
to replace with Islamic governments like its own. We believe
Iran has Shia sympathizers available tor terrorist operations in
most of the Gulf States and Iranian embassies are available to
support, plan, and direct attacks. Only it Iran is sincerely
interested in improving diplomatic relations with its neighbors
would the terrorist danger from Tehran be likely to decline in
the near term.
o In Kuwait, local security is improving but still is not
sufficient to eliminate the terrorist threat. Two
Iranian-backed plots against non-US targets have been
aborted since May, but Kuwait probably remains a prime
target. Dawa Party members convicted for the December
bombings, remain in jail in Kuwait, and US interests
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could be targets of any Iranian attempt to secure their
release through extortion.
0 In Bahrain, the Dawa organization and the Iranian-
controlled Islamic Front for the Liberation of Bahrain
(IFLB) have been disrupted by government action.
Nevertheless, Iran is continuing its 25X1
efforts to infiltrate trained Bahraini Shias back into
the country. On 16 August an IFLB infiltrator was
arrested, and he admitted a US-owned oil refinery was
one of his targets. The US Navy facility received an
anonymous threat from Islamic Jihad early last summer.
o In Iraq, goverment security is extensive, but has not
prevented several Dawa attacks against British and
French targets during the past year. Us diplomatic
personnel could be attacked in the future.
In the UAE,
local security is poor and the US
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Embassy is highly vulnerable.
o In Saudi Arabia, the government improved its security
measures substantially prior to the recently concluded
Hajj. We believe an attack on Americans is less likely
than in other Gulf states,
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Iranian-backed terrorism also poses a danger outside Lebanon
and the Persian Gulf. The potential threat to US interests
probably is greatest in Western Europe.
Iranian operatives demonstrated their capabilities by hitting
non-US targets.
o A prominent Iranian exile was assassinated in Paris in
February.
0 Anti-Khomeini students were attacked in West Germany
last year.
o In Spain, Islamic Jihad claimed credit for the murder of
a Saudi citizen in September and the wounding of a
Kuwaiti in August. Moreover, Spanish authorities
arrested several Iranians plotting to hijack a Saudi
airliner this summer. Vulnerable US consulates or other
small, accessible facilities may be at the greatest
risk, as would be exposed US officials in large European
cities.
In our judgment, the Iranians pose the greatest potential
foreign terrorist danger within the United States, although we
still consider that threat fairly low. Violence against Iranian
exiles is the most likely Iranian action, although Tehran could
be stimulated by events in the Middle East to direct attacks
against US Government property or prominent citizens. The
Islamic Society is the largest pro-Iranian student group in the
United States, and it receives government support.
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We believe Iran
would be more likely to select more accessible and vulnerable US
targets outside the United States.
Palestinian Terrorism The short term threat to Us
facilities and personnel from Palestinian groups is considered to
be generally low. Groups within the PLO continue to observe
Arafat's 1974 ban on terrorism outside Israel and the occupied
territories. We believe that Arafat would sanction a return to
international terrorism only it he felt the survival of the PLO
as an organization or his continuation as its leader depended on
it. Alternatively, a widening of the schism between pro- and
anti-Arafat groups also could lead some of the more radical
groups such as Saiga or the PFLP to commit acts of terrorism
against US or other international targets in an effort to
demonstrate their power, gain publicity, and force the United
States and others to reckon with them. Maneuvering among the
competing PLO factions over the future of the organization is
likely to continue at least until the end of this year, making
either of these developments unlikely.
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The non-PLO Abu Nidal Group (previously known as the Black
June Organization), based in and probably controlled by Syria,
poses a serious threat in Jordan and possibly elsewhere. Abu
Nidal placed bombs near US diplomatic facilities in Jordan last
summer. We believe the group is used by Syria--along with the
Jordanian Revolutionary People's Party--to pressure King Hussein
not to negotiate with Israel or to support Arafat. The recent
Jordanian resumption of diplomatic relations with Egypt may
provoke more terrorist attacks in Jordan, possibly against Us
targets. The Abu Nidal group has demonstrated its capability to
conduct assassinations throughout the world, and its overseas
cells could be turned against the United States. In July, a
number of US Embassies and other facilities in the Middle East
received threats from the Arab Revolutionary Brigades, a cover
name previously used by Abu Nidal.
During the next few months attacks by other Palestinan
groups on US targets outside the Middle East are unlikely,
although we cannot rule them out. The Iraqi-based 15 May
organization attempted to place bombs on commercial airlines
flying between Europe and Israel earlier this year, but Iraq
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appears to have forced a temporary suspension in its activities
after US objections.
Should there be Palestinian attacks they would most likely occur
in Greece or Turkey because of the ease with which foreign
terrorists can operate in those nations.
Armenians While Armenian terrorists have killed Turkish
diplomats in the United States, they have not thus far targeted
US personnel or property and do not appear to have a strong
Libyan Terrorism Libyan-backed terrorism became a major
problem in 1984 after a year of relative quiescence, but none of
Tripoli's 25 attacks this year have been against US targets.
Despite Qadhafi's strident anti-US rhetoric, he appears reluctant
to strike at the United States directly. Qadhafi might abandon
that reluctance if he were to become convinced that US support
for his opponents was seriously threatening him or it he believed
himself faced with a direct US challenge. Libya's strong ties
with some terrorist groups, the growth of its own terrorist
capabilities, and the nation's substantial economic resources
give Qadhafi the capability to threaten US targets abroad at any
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time. An act of Libyan terrorism in the United States is
possible but we believe Libya would be hard-pressed to mount such
an operation because of US security measures.
US persons and facilities are vulnerable to Libyan attacks
in Western Europe and the Middle East.
The only serious terrorist threat to US personnel and
facilities in Africa is likely to come from hostile Libyan-
sponsored groups in countries that stretch south and east from
Libya itself. With French troops in the process of pulling out
of Chad, US facilities in the capital may be at greater risk from
a crossboarder operation by GUNT insurgents. Libyan-sponsored
terrorists arrested in Chad earlier this year said the US Embassy
was on their target list. In Sudan, Libyan sponsored rebels in
the south probably represent the greatest threat to US facilities
in that country.
In Ethiopia, through which most of
Tripoli's aid to the Sudanese rebels is funneled, a large Libyan
infrastructure could carry out attacks on American diplomats with
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little or no warning. A house in Addis Ababa occupied by Libyans
who were building a bomb, blew up on 11 May, just after the
resolution of the seige of the Peoples' Bureau in London.
Zairean exiles operating out of neighboring states are
recieving increased support from Libya and could attack US
facilities.
Elsewhere in Africa, the threats are more difficult to
assess. Small pockets of Islamic fundamentalists throughout
Africa--for example in northern Nigeria--could threaten US
interests and we would have little or no warning of attack from
such a quarter. These groups, however, are closely watched by
host governments, which view them as threats to regime
stability. In other African countries, the combination of
inadequate security and endemic political violence--such as in
Uganda--could also affect official and nonofficial US personnel
at any time.
Latin America
Terrorism in Latin America usually occurs in the content of
leftist guerrilla insurgencies--and its violence tends to be much
more localized and limited than in the Middle East. The United
States is identified by the guerrillas in those countries as
being the major supporter and manipulator of the governments they
seek to overthrow and is thus rationalized as a legitimate
target. The greater the US presence, the stronger the argument
for attacking it. Moreover, insurgent leaders could be tempted
to attack US interests it they come to believe that such attacks
against Americans in a US political year could erode US support
for the government.
A serious risk to Americans comes from Colombia, where tour
major groups and their splinters have been fighting the
government for years. The high US profile in Colombia, and US
support for the government's actions against narcotics
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traffickers and subversives make US officials and facilities
compelling targets. The most virulently anti-US group is the
Ricardo Franco Front--a faction of the Revolutionary Armed Forces
of Colombia. The Front claimed responsibility for a series of
bombings in Bogota on 23 May 1984 directed primarily against
offices of the US Government and American businesses such as ITT
As the 1980 seizure of Ambassador
Diego Asencio by M-19 demonstrates, the Colombian groups have
both the will and capability to hit US targets.
Ecuador's nascent terrorism has a distinctly anti-US
flavor. The most active group is Alfaro Vive Carajo (AVC), which
bombed the Embassy in May 1984.
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limited resources lessen its ability to conduct an attack, but
the ill-equipped government security forces would have difficulty
countering them.
The scene of extensive anti-government demonstrations this
year, Chile is experiencing a rising tempo of bombings that has
included US businesses as incidental targets. We do not believe,
however, that US interests have been singled out for these
attacks.
In the Caribbean, the upcoming 19 October anniversary of
former Grenadian Prime Minister Maurice Bishop's death may
provide regional leftist groups with an excuse for anti-US
violence. Leftwing groups in St. Lucia and Dominica have
discussed marking the date with anti-US violence. This could
include actions against our Embassies in Antigua and Barbados.
Threats in Central American countries other than El Salvador
are more potential than real at present. A Costa Rican group,
La Familia, was surveilling Embassy personnel last January, but
most members of the group were jailed this year. The
Revolutionary Armed Forces, a Guatemalan group responsible for
anti-American attacks in 1983, may be planning soon to engage in
urban terrorism--which, it true, could include US targets.
Elsewhere in South America, the threat to Americans is less
immediate. Peru's vicious guerrilla group, the Maoist Shining
Path, has so far not directly targeted US interests, being
content instead to commit atrocities against the rural population
in south-central Peru. Although the Ambassador's residence in
Bolivia was bombed on 4 March 1984, the anti-US threat there is
from drug traffickers rather than terrorists. Rightist
frustration in Argentina prompted threats against US
installations during President Alfonsin's just concluded visit to
Washington, but no attacks directly tied to the visit occurred.
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Western Europe
Indigenous terrorist groups in the region are no longer as
active as they were at the beginning of the decade--largely as a
result of police successes in Italy and Germany over the past
three years. Indeed, a good portion of the more lethal terrorist
incidents now occurring in Western Europe is either a spillover
from the Middle East or the work of separatist or irredentist
groups like the Basques, Armenians, and IRA for whom the United
States is not a target of choice. But, while small and placed on
the defensive by more aggressive and effective government
countermeasures, these leftwing or anarchistic groups cannot be
discounted in some countries as a significant threat to US
personnel and property.
A major imponderable in France and perhaps elsewhere in
Europe is the Lebanese Armed Revolutionary Faction (LARF), a
shadowy group of unknown membership and organization. We believe
it may be composed of radical Palestinian and leftist European
terrorists. LARF has made sporadic attacks on US and Israeli
diplomats since 1981, most recently it attempted to assassinate
the US Consul in Strasbourg, France in March of this year.
its focus on US
targets makes it a serious threat to US personnel at any time.
According to Turkish police warnings to the US Embassy, the
27 September sentencing of Turkish terrorists belonging to the
Marxist-Leninist Armed Propaganda Unit (MLAPU), a group
responsible for assassinating several Americans during the
chaotic days prior to the September 1980 coup in Turkey, could
provoke a terrorist attack. Turkish police believe that MLAPU,
largely quiescent since 1981, may have been responsible for the
bombing of the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce in July. Based on
MLAPU's past record and the propaganda value an attack on a US
target would have--and assuming the group has been able to
recover from the extensive government countermeasures--we believe
its threat to US servicemen and property, though not high, is
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increasing.
The leftist Greek terrorist organization 17 November remains
a significant threat to US personnel and property. The group
claimed responsibility for the assassination of US Navy Captain
Tsantes in late 1983 and the shooting this year of a JUSMAGG
military courier, and has labeled the United States "a power of
occupation and terrorism." The 17 November's Group's harsh anti-
Us rhetoric, coupled with the Greek government's lax attitude
towards terrorism against foreign targets creates a climate
conducive to further terrorist attacks on US targets.
A French leftist group, Direct Action (AD), poses a
potential threat. Although historically the AD has not
concentrated on US targets--even though it has bombed US business
interests in the past--its anti-Jewish, anti-Israeli stance would
make it easy for the group to rationalize attacking US officials
or buildings. The AD was active in Paris last summer, bombing
offices of the Atlantic Institute for International Affairs, the
European Space Agency, and the Western European Union. According
to an Embassy report, Direct Action stole 800 kilograms of TNT
from a Belgian quarry in June, and has threatened to attack
"symbols of Western Imperialism" by placing five car bombs around
Paris.
West German groups historically have been the most active
against the United States in Western Europe. But the leftist Red
Army Faction (RAF), which attempted to assassinate then NATO
Commander Haig and CINCUSAREUR Kroesen, has not committed a
terrorist act since 1981. Police counterterrorist operations
since 1982 have done much to reduce RAF's effectiveness, and in
July 1984, their capture of RAF personnel and documents may have
prevented the staging of attacks against US and NATO targets.
Among the targets were the US Army airfield in Karlsruhe, Dolan
Caserne in Schwaebisch, the caserne and housing area at bad
Toelz, the Campbell Caserne in Oberammergau, and about 30
locations along the NATO pipeline. The RAF's surprising ability
to recruit new members despite West German police successes makes
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it a continuing threat to US interests. Another group, the
Revolutionary Cells (RZ), has been responsible for most recent
terrorist acts in West Germany. RZ attacks, however, have been
mostly explosive and incendiary harassment attacks against US
military installations and "soft" targets.
Italy this summer suffered through a spate of low level
bombings carried out by leftist groups against US commercial
interests and targets related to the NATO presence. But Red
Brigades (BR) documents
indicate a continuing interest in NATO installations as well as
domestic political and military targets. The BR claimed
responsiblity for the February 1984 assassination of Sinai MFO
Chief Leamon Hunt.
there are indications that the BR has improved internal
security practices, at least in northern Italy . Key members
remain at large, and the BR continues to reorganize. Even more
ominous, recent reforms in the preventive detention system could
allow the release of some 300 accused terrorist from prison,
including several suspected of being involved in the Aldo Moro
kidnaping and murder.
Most Spanish and Portuguese groups usually do not target US
personnel or property. The exceptions are two Spanish groups:
Iraultza--presently in disarray and probably incapable of
mounting attacks--and the small leftist group, First of October
Anti-fascist Resistance Group (GRAPO). The GRAPO hardcore, which
probably numbers under 10, this summer embarked on a bombing
campaign that included among its targets the General Motors
showroom in Aviles, Spain. GRAPO has survived repeated attempts
by the Spanish police to destroy it, and its "anti-imperialist"
stance could cause it to target US military installations in
Spain. The group is known to have gathered data on the US
military residence connected with the Torrejon base but its
capability to conduct an attack is minimal.
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Although there is currently no evidence of any ongoing
terrorist plots targeting US personnel or facilities in Asia, the
history of terrorist attacks in the region suggest that American
interests in some countries will remain at varying levels of risk
through the short term and beyond.
The most serious threat comes from South Asia. The
Pakistani group Al-Zulfikar has recently targeted Americans both
inside and outside that country. Last December, Al-Zulfikar
members were apprehended while planning to kill the US Consul
General in Lahore. Members of another Al-Zulfikar cell were
arrested in Vienna last summer after planning to seize American
hostages there and in Rome. Within Sri Lanka, Tamil terrorist
groups represent an increasing threat to US personnel and
facilities. Since May, an American USAID couple has been
kidnaped, the hotel housing the Israeli Interests Section has
been bombed, and the main USAID office was the object of a
planned bombing. In Bangladesh, a new threat could grow out of
an "Islamic Jihad organization" with reported ties to both Libya
and Iran. The group has stated its intention to attack "un-
Islamic" Western targets, beginning later this year.
Elsewhere in Asia, we believe the short term threat is
somewhat lower, and in Japan, for instance, the left-wing radical
group Chukaku-ha (Nucleus Faction) conducted a series of minor
firebombings against lightly-guarded US facilities last summer
Firebombings
also characterize the threat to US installations in South Korea,
where three American cultural facilities have been attacked since
1982. South Korean dissidents are thought to have been
responsible for the bombings, which killed or injured several
South Koreans. In the Philippines, anti-Marcos violence by the
Communist New People's Army could attect US interests with little
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or no warning. The last attack against American servicemen was
in 1971, but the United States remains a high-visibility target
because of its many military and diplomatic installations.
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