THE IMPACT OF FERTILIZER ON SOVIET GRAIN OUTPUT, 1960-80

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP08S01350R000602060001-3
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 27
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 6, 2012
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 1, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08SO135OR000602060001-3
National
Foreign
Assessment
Center
The Impact of Fertilizer on
Soviet Grain Output, 1960-80
A Research Paper
ER 77-10557
November 1977
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08SO135OR000602060001-3
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08SO135OR000602060001-3
This publication is prepared for the use of U.S. Government
officials. The format, coverage and contents of the publication are
designed to meet the specific requirements of those users. U.S.
Government officials may obtain additional copies of this document
directly or through liaison channels from the Central Intelligence
Agency.
Non-U.S. Government users may obtain this along with similar
CIA publications on a subscription basis by addressing inquiries to:
Document Expediting (DOCEX) Project
Exchange and Gift Division
Library of Congress
Washington, D.C. 20540
Non-U.S. Government users not interested in the DOCEX
Project subscription service may purchase reproductions of specific
publications on an individual basis from:
Photoduplication Service
Library of Congress
Washington, D.C. 20540
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08SO135OR000602060001-3
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08S01350R000602060001-3
Note: As a result of a reorganization, effective 11 October 1977, intelligence
publications formerly issued by the Directorate of Intelligence are now being issued
by the National Foreign Assessment Center.
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08S01350R000602060001-3
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08SO135OR000602060001-3
The Impact of Fertilizer on
Soviet Grain Output, 1960-80
Central Intelligence Agency
National Foreign Assessment Center
Key Judgments
Since 1960, grain output in the USSR has increased about 6 million tons a
year on the average. About one-fifth of this gain is attributable to an
elevenfold increase in fertilizer use. Before 1965, grain was a low priority
recipient of fertilizer. Between 1965 and 1975, however, applications rose
from 6 million to 25 million metric tons. The impact of fertilizer would have
been even greater except for major problems with application technology,
storage, and quality, which have held fertilizer gains well below their
potential. These problems are gradually diminishing but will still be
important.
The USSR plans to double fertilizer applications during the current five-
year plan (1976-80) as the chief way of achieving a one-fifth increase in
annual average grain output over 1971-75. Planned grain output during 1976-
80 will average 220.4 million tons per year. Over the range of expected rates
of application during 1976-80, we estimate that each additional ton of
fertilizer will add approximately 1.1 tons of grain output.
While the greater use of fertilizer clearly will aid Brezhnev's efforts to
bring grain production up to the high levels needed to support his livestock
program, it will not be sufficient to ensure achievement of the grain target.
Substantially better than normal weather, as occurred in 1976 and 1977, as
well as better nonfertilizer technology are also needed.
Two projections of average annual grain production have been made
based on different assumptions of fertilizer use.
? Projection I assumes that Soviet plans for fertilizer applications and
other technological advances are achieved. This increment, when
applied to a 1975 base projected from Soviet grain output in 1962-65-
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08SO135OR000602060001-3
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08SO135OR000602060001-3
a period of nearly normal weather-suggests an average crop of about
212 million tons during 1976-80.
? Projection II is based on attainment of (a) 80 percent of the fertilizer
goals and (b) 50 percent of the planned gains from other technological
improvements. Projection II is consistent with the experience of recent
years. Using the weather-adjusted 1975 base results in an average crop
of 200 million tons for 1976-80.
Beyond 1980, we expect continued large increases in applications of
fertilizer to grain. Planning authorities have incentives to increase applica-
tions. Even after the state subsidies are included in the price paid by state and
collective farms, the ratio between the current value of fertilizer's contribution
to grain output and its cost is more than 3 to 1. This ratio will remain well
above 2 to 1 even if fertilizer applications grow during 1981-85 at the rapid
rates planned for 1976-80.
Projection II, based on assumptions that seem more probable than those of
Projection I, is about 10 percent below 1976-80 Soviet grain goals for average
annual grain output and 25 million to 30 million tons less than our estimates of
average annual grain requirements for 1976-80. Annual average purchases of
foreign grain could thus be as large as those following the 1972 and 1975 grain
harvest failures if the Soviets choose to cover the deficit by imports. It is more
likely, however, that a grain crop failure would be followed by a reduction of
short-run goals for meat output and livestock inventories.
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08SO135OR000602060001-3
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08SO135OR000602060001-3
Page
Key judgments ........................................................................................
Introduction .............................................................................................. 1
Environmental Constraint on Fertilizer Use ...................................... 1
Allocation of Fertilizer ............................................................................ 2
Impact of Fertilizer on Grain Yields .................................................. 4
Outlook for 1976-80 ................................................................................ 9
Projections I and II .............................................................................. 11
International Comparisons of Fertilizer Use .................................... 13
Appendixes
Appendix A: Mineral, Fertilizer Production, Net Exports, and
Deliveries to Agriculture .......................................... 17
Appendix B: Derivation of Applications of Mineral Fertilizer
1. Mineral Fertilizer Applications ...................................................... 4
2. Fertilizer Response Rates ................................................................ 6
3. Mineral Fertilizer Applications to Grain, 1975 .......................... 8
4. Average Fertilizer Response Rates, Countrywide ...................... 9
5. Growth of Grain Output ................................................................ 10
6. Annual Increases in Grain Production ........................................ 12
7. Fertilizer Applications to Grain .................................................... 13
8. World Fertilizer Consumption (by Region) ................................ 14
9. World Fertilizer Consumption (by Country), 1974/75 ............ 15
10. US and USSR: Fertilizer Use and Wheat Yields, 1975 .......... 15
B1. Estimated Applications of Mineral Fertilizer to Crops ............ 19
B2. Mineral Fertilizer Application Rates to Crops .......................... 19
Figures
1. Precipitation in the Grain Belt .................................................... iv
2. Grain Production and Fertilizer Applied to Grain .................. 5
3. Application Rates of Mineral Fertilizer, 1975 ............................ 7
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08SO135OR000602060001-3
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08SO135OR000602060001-3
USSR: Precipitation Levels in the Grain Belt
9 ~ ,Z , r~V Central Asia
L
ANNUAL PRECIPITATION
MOIST over 20 inches(over 500mm)
DRY 8 thru 20 inches(200 thru 500 mm)
EXTREMELY DRY under 8 inches
(under 200mm)
Belo-
? jussia
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08SO135OR000602060001-3
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08SO135OR000602060001-3
The Impact of Fertilizer on
Soviet Grain Output, 1960-80
Introduction
Since 1960 both average grain yields and total
grain output in the Soviet Union have increased
roughly 55 and 78 percent, respectively. Much of
this improvement is weather-related, but part
results from increased fertilizer use and other
improvements in technology. During this period,
the amount of fertilizer allocated to grain crops
increased elevenfold. Only since the late 1960s
has fertilizer use on grain become relatively
widespread. Nevertheless in 1975, less than half
the grain crop was fertilized.
Soviet planners are calling for annual average
grain output to reach 220.4 million tons during
1976-80-about 20 percent more than annual
average output for 1971-75. The importance to
the economy of rapidly increasing grain output is
difficult to overstate.
? Brezhnev's livestock program is limited in
part by the availability of grain.
? More meat on Soviet tables is a basic plank in
the regime's program to raise levels of living.
? Massive grain imports in drought years
contribute to large hard currency deficits and
limit Soviet ability to purchase much needed
Western technology.
Success in boosting grain output during 1976-
80 will depend on weather and fulfillment of
ambitious plans for technological improvements
in grain growing, especially increased use of
fertilizer. An earlier study on the relationship
between weather and grain output concluded
that weather during 1976-80 is likely to be worse
than that in the recent past, which was unusually
favorable.'
This report-using the weather-related trends
established in the earlier report on Soviet climate
conditions-assesses the probable impact of in-
creased use of fertilizer and other technological
advances on grain output during 1976-80. It (a)
briefly describes the conditions under which
grain grows in the Soviet Union and the benefits
derived from fertilizer use, (b) traces recent
trends in fertilizer applications to grain and
discusses the impact that fertilizer has had on
grain yields, and (c) examines Soviet grain
prospects during the Tenth Five-Year Plan,
presenting two projections of grain production
for 1976-80 based on fertilizer application plans
and likely response rates.
Environmental Constraint on Fertilizer Use
Only a small proportion of the Soviet Union's
vast land area is suitable for grain growing.2 The
grain belt extends nearly 4,800 kilometers from
the western border of the USSR to the Mongolian
border in the east (see figure 1). In 1975, 128
million hectares were planted in grain, almost 60
percent of the total sown area in the USSR.
Spring wheat (42 million hectares) and spring
barley (31 million hectares) accounted for three-
fifths of the area sown to grain. Winter grains-
winter wheat, barley, and rye-covered 29
million hectares, or about one-fifth of the total
grain area.
' CIA, USSR: The Impact of Recent Climate Change on Grain
Production, ER 76-10577U, October 1976.
' The tillable area exceeds that of the United States, but overall
productive capabilities per hectare are considerably lower.
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08SO135OR000602060001-3
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08SO135OR000602060001-3
Vast differences in soil and climate in the grain
belt affect the production of grain and the impact
of fertilizer on grain yields. In general, available
moisture determines the areas where fertilizer
can be used most effectively. As fertilizer
applications increase, the moisture required to
secure full benefits also increases. Although half
of Soviet arable land nominally has adequate
moisture for grain growing, precipitation varies
widely from year to year and from region to
region. Furthermore, untimely seasonal distribu-
tion often reduces its effectiveness.
Most grains require at least 10 inches of
precipitation per year and a frost-free growing
season of at least 90 days. These conditions
generally are met or exceeded as far south as the
chernozem (black earth) soil belt. The chernozem
zone-where wheat, barley, and corn sowings are
concentrated-extends from western Siberia
through . northern Khazakhstan and a large
portion of the southern European USSR. The
relatively high water-holding capacity of cherno-
zems enhances their ability to accommodate
fertilizer, particularly in regions with low
precipitation.
North of the chernozem zone, annual precipita-
tion ranges from 20 to 25 inches. While the
response of grain to fertilizer is higher than in the
chernozem zone, soils are heavy and acidic,
requiring large applications of lime and fertilizer
for best results. Soviet planners have designated
much of the northwestern USSR as the "zone of
guaranteed moisture." This area, which consists
mainly of the Baltic republics, Belorussia, and the
nonchernozem region of the Russian Soviet
Federated Socialist Republic (RSFSR), is consid-
ered a prime area for increasing and stabilizing
crop yields through land reclamation and greater
use of fertilizer.
West of the Urals and in the Volga Valley,
annual precipitation usually is adequate to meet
grain growing needs. Rainfall varies from year to
year, usually peaking in July or August-too late
to benefit much of the crop. Precipitation
decreases eastward and is lowest in the desert
steppes. In these areas, rainfall is light, variable,
and unpredictable. Grain yields are low, and
mineral fertilizer is applied sparingly except
where grain lands are irrigated. Application of
fertilizer in drought conditions usually is
counterproductive.
When applied properly, mineral fertilizers
supplement the soil's nitrogen, phosphorus, and
potassium used during plant growth. In most
areas, Soviet grains benefit from annual applica-
tions of nitrogen, which is needed to form plant
proteins that are contained in leaves and seeds.
Grain crops also benefit from (a) cumulative
effects of fertilizer applied in earlier years and
(b) predecessor crops.
More than half of Soviet arable land, especially
areas with podzolic or chestnut soil, is deficient in
phosphorus, which is needed for rapid seed
formation, plant maturation, and resistance to
cold temperatures-desirable characteristics in
the short Soviet growing season. Soviet soils
contain large quantities of potassium, which
promotes kernel development and the formation
of carbohydrates. Natural potassium in the form
of insoluble silicates, however, is not easily
available to plants throughout much of the Soviet
grain belt; therefore, readily soluble potassic
fertilizers are needed.
Allocation of Fertilizer
In the USSR, central planning replaces the
market; facin chronic fertilizer shortages, plan-
ners make allocations mainly according to (a)
crop priorities and (b) where "fertilizers will yield
the greatest effect for the national economy"-
that is, where the marginal product of fertilizer is
highest.' Analysis of the distribution of fertilizer
among Soviet grain growing areas suggests that
the planners attempt to equalize the marginal
product of fertilizer by region.
Currently, prices for fertilizer and grain are
structured to encourage fertilizer use, especially
where response rates are high. The prices Soviet
farms pay for fertilizer are set below production
N. N. Baranov, Ekonomika ispol'zovaniya udobreniy, Moscow,
1974, p.17.
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08SO135OR000602060001-3
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08SO135OR000602060001-3
costs by the government; grain and other crop
prices are set sufficiently high that, on average,
fertilizer use is highly profitable. For example,
one Soviet author claimed that in 1972, a
relatively poor crop year, collective and state
farms paid 1.5 billion rubles for fertilizer and
produced 6.3 billion rubles of additional crops.
Even with the government subsidy " added, the
ratio of the revenues from sale of the additional
output to the cost of fertilizers was more than 3 to
1.5
The planning process begins with setting
targets for grain yields by administrative region
and estimating the portion of the yield increase
that is to come from fertilizer. The amount of
fertilizer needed to meet grain output targets is
derived from regional fertilizer application
norms that indicate the fertilizer nutrients
necessary to increase grain output by one ton.
These norms, derived from experimental plots in
various soil-climate zones, show yield responses to
weather and other growing conditions. Only if
these growing conditions do not change over the
plan period will these norms be valid. At current
levels of application, the grain crops that are most
responsive to fertilizer-irrigated rice and corn-
are given priority in applications. Priority de-
clines with response rates that run from those of
winter grains to those of spring wheat, barley,
oats, legumes, millet, and buckwheat.
Allocation is designed to provide farms with
the fertilizer they need to meet plan targets for
crop yields. In practice, however, production and
delivery bottlenecks mean that actual fertilizer
allocations are rarely sufficient to meet the plan
for grain even if precipitation is normal or above
normal. At present, much of the spring grain area
gets only the aftereffects of fertilizer applied to
predecessor crops. Some shortages are made up.
by diverting fertilizer -from sown grasses_ and
Vpasturage to grain` crops1
' We estimate fertilizer subsidies averaged 400 million rubles per
year during 1971-75.
? The financial incentive to fertilize wheat crops is relatively
greater in the USSR than in the US. The ratio of wheat prices to
fertilizer prices in 1976 was 0.68 for the USSR and 0.41 for the US.
Soviet farmers face other problems with
fertilizer not normally encountered by their
Western counterparts. These include:
? Low quality: In 1975 the average nutrient
content of fertilizer was only 35 percent,
compared with approximately 43 percent in
the US. The low nutrient content in the USSR
means higher transportation and application
costs to the farms per unit of nutrients.
Granular fertilizers, which are much easier to
apply than powders, account for only 40
percent of fertilizer supplies, far short of the
85 to 90 percent recommended by Soviet
experts.6 Much of the nitrogen content in
ammonia water is lost through evaporation.
Furthermore, phosphate meal comprises a
large share of phosphorus fertilizer despite its
insolubility in water. Also, the production of
multinutrient fertilizers-those with optimal
ratios of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium
for specific crops and climatic zones-
comprise only 15 percent of Soviet fertilizers,
whereas in the US it is more than 50 percent.'
Finally, the Soviets produce only six types of
multinutrient fertilizers; Soviet experts con-
sider a minimum of 12 to 13 types necessary.'
? Improper mix: Fertilizer application norms
indicate that on average Soviet grain crops
need nitrogen and phosphorus nutrients in a
ratio of 1 to 1.2.s In 1975, however, the
average proportion was one part nitrogen to
0.61 parts phosphorus. This shortfall may
result partly from the steady decline of
? Despite higher wholesale prices, concentrated granulated, mul-
tinutrient fertilizers are less expensive to use per ton of nutrient than
single nutrient, powdered fertilizers. Soviet calculations show that
the average cost in 1971 for acquiring and applying one ton of single
nutrient fertilizer was 222 rubles for nitrogen, 212 rubles for
phosphorus, and 75 rubles for potassium. The comparable cost for
multinutrient fertilizers, however, was only 174 rubles per ton
(Baranov, op. cit., pp. 316-317).
Vestnik sel'skokhozyaystvennoy nauki, No. 4, 1976, p. 48.
? Khimiya v sel'skom khozyaystve, No. 10, 1976, pp. 3-9.
? These averages mask considerable diversity in requirements by
area and crop. For example, the norm for nitrogen on spring wheat
in the Urals is about 80 kilograms of nutrients, while the nitrogen-
phosphorus ratio is about 1 to 1.5. In the central region, spring
wheat requires 100 kilograms of nitrogen and a nitrogen-phosphorus
ratio of 1 to 1.05.
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08SO135OR000602060001-3
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08SO135OR000602060001-3
phosphorus nutrients as a share of fertilizer
deliveries to agriculture. Past fertilizer pro-
duction and allocation policy has emphasized
nitrogen fertilizers.
? Excessive losses: By Soviet accounts, 10 to 15
percent of the fertilizer earmarked for
agriculture is lost during transportation and
storage because of uncovered trucks, spillage
in handling, and storage in open areas where
moisture causes caking and loss of nutrients.
This can be compared with a 5-percent loss
rate between factory and field in the US.1o
Construction of proper transport and storage
facilities has not kept pace with increases in
fertilizer output. For example, in 1975, total
fertilizer storage capacity on farms equaled
less than 5 million tons, only two-fifths of
what Soviet authorities considered ade-
quate."
? Improper application: Inefficiency on Soviet
farms is keeping crop yields below what they
should be with current levels of fertilizer
application. Widely used application tech-
niques, such as broadcasting and aerial
application, are very inefficient and cause
10 US Department of Agriculture, unpublished estimate.
11 Ekonomicheskaya gazeta, No. 52, 1975, p. 9.
excessive losses. Farm managers chronically
complain of insufficient technical informa-
tion on optimal fertilizer application rates,
late deliveries of fertilizer, and shortages of
machinery to mix and to apply fertilizer.
Currently, farms have 30 to 40 percent of
needed fertilizer application machinery.12 As
a result, applications are often too late to
benefit crops. Furthermore, underfulfillment
of requirements for lime and organic fertiliz-
er supplements dampen the benefits obtained
from mineral fertilizers." The relative price
of liming materials and grain supports the
implied contention that the marginal product
of liming greatly exceeds the marginal cost. A
Soviet calculation indicates that inadequate
applications of lime currently reduce grain
production by about 12 million tons.14
Impact of Fertilizer on Grain Yields
The use of fertilizer on grain in the USSR has
become widespread only recently (see table 1).
? Ibid.
" Organic fertilizers (manure and compost) improve water reten-
tion and air circulation in soils and reduce the harmful effects of soil
acidity on plant growth; thus, application of organic fertilizer tends
to enhance the effects of mineral fertilizer. Between 1965 and 1973,
the use of organic fertilizer on grain crops increased from 76 million
tons to 185 million tons.
11 Zernovoye khozyaystvo, No. 3, 1976, p. 19.
Table 1
Mineral Fertilizer Applications 1
CPH' MMT' CPH'
Grain ................................................ 0.2 2.2 0.5
Forage crops, grasses, cultivated
meadows, and pastures .............. * 1.4
Technical crops
Cotton .......................................... 11.3 2.5 13.1
Sugar beets, industrial ................ 6.2 1.9 8.3
Flax .............................................. 5.5 0.9 5.5
Sunflower seeds and other 1.1 0.7 *
Potatoes ............................................ 2.3 1.1 3.2
Vegetables and melons .................. 2.4 0.4 4.4
Orchards and vineyards .................. 1.0 0.3
MMT' CPH' MMT' CPH' MMT' CPH' MMT'
6.0 1.2 14.6 2.0 25.2 4.0 51
3.2 16.9 4.6 18.8
3.2 10.6 3.6 16.9
0.8 5.6 0.7
* 1.8 1.3
1.3 6.6 2.3 10.4
0.6 5.4 0.8 8.2
* 2.7 0.8 7.2
5.5
6.2
3.6
8.2 10.0 10
1.4
2.2 7.2 2
* Not available.
' Appendix B contains a description of the methodology and sources used in deriving these estimates.
' Centners per hectare.
' Million metric tons.
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08SO135OR000602060001-3
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08SO135OR000602060001-3
USSR: Grain Production and Fertilizer Applied to Grain
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08SO135OR000602060001-3
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDPO8SO135OR000602060001-3
Until the mid-1960s, Soviet fertilizer policy
favored cotton, sugar beets, and potatoes. Since
then the priority of grain has risen sharply; in
1975 grain received 7 million tons of fertilizer
nutrients,15 or over one-third of all fertilizer
delivered to farms, and 11 times the amount
applied in 1960. Still, in 1975 about half the grain
area was fertilized.
The response of grain to fertilizer is governed
by the law of diminishing returns. The response
rate, or the average product of fertilizer, is largest
for the initial fertilizer applications. With addi-
tional fertilizer use, the response rate drops.
When the marginal product of fertilizer reaches
zero, additional fertilizer yields no more grain.
Even with good statistical data, the impact of
fertilizer on grain is difficult to isolate and to
measure. Response rates depend on a host of
natural factors, such as weather and soil types;
the level and timing of fertilizer use; the
responses of different grain varieties; institutional
characteristics, such as cropping practices; and
the quality of fertilizer. Weather dominates year-
to-year changes in grain production, which
plummets in drought-stricken years-despite in-
creased use of fertilizer-and soars in years of
good weather. For example, Soviet fertilizer
applications increased by nearly one-fifth be-
tween 1973 and 1975 while grain production
declined by two-fifths following years of poor
weather (see figure 2).
Because of these factors, response rates of grain
to fertilizer are not uniform within the Soviet
grain belt (see table 2). The highest and most
consistent response rates occur in the noncherno-
zem soil zone of the RSFSR, Belorussia, the Baltic
republics, and the western Ukraine where mois-
ture is adequate for efficient fertilizer use. As
expected, these areas receive the most fertilizer.
"Nutrient content refers to the sum of nitrogen, phosphorus,
and potassium actually applied and excludes ballast or "filler"
material. Soviet fertilizer statistics are often expressed in "standard
units," which include the filler. Much of what the Soviets call filler,
however, is composed of chemically combined elements necessary
for the fertilizer compound. Under standard units, nitrogen fertiliz-
ers contain 20.5-percent N; phosphate fertilizer, 18.7-percent P,O,;
and potassium fertilizers, 41.6-percent K,O. Unless otherwise stated,
fertilizer is expressed in standard units.
Fertilizer Response Rates'
Winter
wheat
Winter
rye
Spring
wheat
Central chernozem ......
1.7
1.7
1.3
Northern Caucasus ......
1.4
1.3
1.0
Wet areas ..................
1.6
1.3
1.2
Dry areas ..................
1.4
1.2
1.0
Ukraine
Western regions ......
1.3
NA
NA
Forest steppes............
1.1
NA
NA
Steppes .....................
1.3
NA
NA
Belorussia ......................
1.2-1.7
1.2-1.5
NA
Estonia ..........................
1.2-1.7
1.2-1.5
NA
Latvia ............................
1.2-1.7
1.2-1.5
NA
Lithuania ......................
1.2-1.7
1.2-1.5
NA
' Tons of grain per ton of standard unit fertilizer. The response
rates shown are probably averages for each area in the early 1970s as
opposed to the marginal response, i.e., the increment in grain output
from the last unit of fertilizer. These response rates could be
consistent with marginal responses for all regions.
Sources: N. N. Baranov, Ekonomika ispol'zovaniya udobreniy,
Moscow, 1974. D. A. Koren'kov, Vestnik sel'skokhozyaystvennoy
nauki, No. 3, 1971, pp. 46-54.
For example, virtually all grain fields in the
Baltic republics receive mineral fertilizer com-
pared with only 20 percent of the grain area in
Kazakhstan.
Response rates are lower and less consistent in
the steppes of the southern Ukraine, the northern
Caucasus, and the southeastern RSFSR. In the
drier areas of the northern Caucasus and the
Volga Valley, a ton of fertilizer already returns
less than a ton of grain. As table 3 and figure 3
show, these drier areas receive lower applications
of fertilizer. Furthermore, spring grains dominate
in the dry area east of the Urals and generally
receive less fertilizer than the fall sown grains
that are grown primarily in the moister areas of
the European USSR. As a result, spring grain
yields are considerably lower than yields of
winter wheat.
The lack of Soviet statistical data on fertilizer
applications makes it impossible to calculate the
exact shape of the average product curve. Trends
in the response rate, however, can be roughly
gauged from statements by Soviet agronomists.
These data suggest a downward trend in average
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDPO8SO135OR000602060001-3
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08SO135OR000602060001-3
USSR: Application Rates of Mineral fertilizer on Grain-1975
Kilograms of nutrients
per hectare sown
? 190-230
0
55-80
130-160
0
30-45
Q 95-125
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08SO135OR000602060001-3
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDPO8SO135OR000602060001-3
Mineral Fertilizer Applications to Grain, 1975
Corn
Other grains
Corn
Other grains
USSR ................................................
93
48
155
42
Belorussia E ....................................
98
230
Latvia' ............................................
98
203
Estonia I ........................................
97
199
Georgia ........................................
94
86
188
136
Lithuania % ....................................
99
140
Kirgiz ............................................
98
91
278
103
Armenia ........................................
53
86
248
120
Turkmen ......................................
88
85
166
95
Moldavia ......................................
86
85
76
109
Ukraine ........................................
98
86
170
70
Azerbaydzhan ..............................
96
83
222
100
Tadzhik ........................................
96
66
491
57
Uzbek ............................................
93
35
332
31
RSFSR ..........................................
90
47
115
37
Kazakhstan ..................................
95
16
302
7
' Kilograms of nutrients per hectare.
a Corn is not cultivated in these republics.
Source: Vestnik statistiki, No. 5, 1976, p. 95-96.
response rates since 1964-consistent with the
law of diminishing returns.
? In 1964 a leading Soviet authority on
fertilizer use, N. N. Baranov, claimed that 10
million tons of fertilizer would yield 20
million to 30 million tons of grain-a
response rate of 2 to 3. He presumably is
referring to the average product of the first
10 million tons of fertilizer. By 1970,
according to Baranov, 30 million to 35
million tons of fertilizer would provide at
least 45 million tons of grain, implying a
lower response rate of 1.3 to 1.5. 16
? In 1968, Baranov stated that each ton of
mineral fertilizer yields 1.2 to 1.5 tons of
grain. 17
? In 1969, two Soviet econometricians con-
structed a model for optimum fertilizer use
on.grain. Their data on regional applications
and response rates imply a countrywide
average response rate of 1.3.18
? Baranov alleged that the response of grain to
fertilizer was 1.3 in 1970.19
? The most recent reference to average re-
sponse rates states that in 1973 a ton of
mineral fertilizer yielded 1.2 tons of grain.20
Table 4 summarizes the available information
on past response rates. Although the estimates are
crude, the pattern of diminishing returns shows
clearly.
By fitting the historical application data to the
pattern of yield responses above, we estimate that
fertilizer accounted for roughly one-fifth to one-
quarter of the increase in grain yields since 1960.
During 1962-74, overall grain yields rose at an
18 A. V. Sokolov et. al., "Postanovka zadachy khimizatsii zernovogo
khozyaystva SSSR," Ekonomika i matematicheskiye metody, No. 5,
1969, p. 717.
18 N. N. Baranov, Ekonomika ispol'zovaniya udobrenty i gerbitsi- 11 N. N. Baranov, Ekonomika ispol'zovaniya udobreniy, Moscow,
don, Moscow, 1964, p. 145. 1974, p. 59.
1' N. N. Baranov, Doklady i soobshcheniya, No. 45 (sbornik Y0 G. P. Rudenko and V. V. Miloserdov, Teoriya i prakttka
nauchnoissledovatel'skikh rabot), Moscow, 1968, pp. 83-89. planirovaniya sel'skogo khozyaystva, Moscow, 1976, p. 160.
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDPO8SO135OR000602060001-3
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08SO135OR000602060001-3
Table 4
Average Fertilizer Response Rates, Countrywide
Fertilizer
Applications Response Rates
(Million Metric (Tons of Grain per
Tons) Ton of Fertilizer)
Before 1969 1 to 10 2 to 3
1969-1973 up" to 20 1.2 to 1.5
1974-1975 up to 25 1.2 to 1.3
average rate of 0.61 centners per hectare. Grain
crops benefited mainly from more precipitation;
weather accounted for about 0.31 centners of the
average increase in yields per hectare.21 Fertilizer
applications during the period rose by an average
of 0.11 centners per hectare per year. If average
response for this period is assumed to fall into the
1.2 to 1.5 range, grain yields rose an average of
0.13 to 0.16 centners per hectare because of
increased use of fertilizer. An estimated 0.04
centners per hectare came from reducing spring
wheat area while expanding areas sown to higher
yielding barley and winter wheat. 22 The remain-
ing average increase in yields, 0.10 to 0.13
centners per hectare, was the result of other
changes, such as improved varieties of grain and
the like. The following tabulation summarizes the
various sources of additional yield between 1962
and 1974.
Total yield increase ....................
100
f
Increase
rom:
Rising precipitation ............
51
Increased use of fertilizer....
21 to
26
Restructured sown area ......
7
Other ....................................
16 to
21
Outlook for 1976-80
According to the draft directives for the Tenth
Five-Year Plan (1976-80), the high priority
E' CIA, op. cit., p. 14.
se The estimated increase in grain yields from restructuring sown
area was derived as follows: Average 1959-61 yields for spring
wheat, winter wheat, and barley were multiplied by area sown to
these crops in 1960 and 1974. The resulting output figures were
added and then divided by sown area to derive weighted average
yield for the three grains in 1960 and 1974.
enjoyed by the fertilizer program will be
continued during the next five years.
? Total fertilizer production is to increase by
three-fifths. Production of phosphate fertiliz-
ers is scheduled to grow faster than nitrogen
and potash fertilizers in order to improve
product structure. Reportedly, phosphorus
will account for 35 percent of all fertilizers in
1980, compared with 29 percent in 1975.
? The share of technologically advanced fertil-
izers, including multinutrient, highly concen-
trated, and granulated fertilizers, will in-
crease to 88 percent of the total, compared
with 70 percent during 1971-75.
? Nutrient content is to increase to 40.6 percent
from 35 percent in 1975.
? Applications to grain will double.
Achievement of these ambitious targets de-
pends on the construction of dozens of large,
modern production facilities. New production
capacity needed to meet the 1980 goals probably
will not be operating before 1977-78; therefore,
fertilizer supplies probably will grow slowly until
1978 and more rapidly thereafter as new plants
start producing.
Soviet planners are counting on increased
applications of fertilizer-to account for 55 percent
of the boost in grain output during 1976-80.21
Yearly grain production during this period is
planned at 220.4 million tons.24 If achieved, this
would represent a 21.4-percent improvement, or
a cumulative increase of 194 million tons over the
?J Ekonomika sel'skogo khozyaystva, No. 4, 1976, p. 49. In
addition, there is to be some restructuring and expansion of the
grain area. Higher yield grains such as winter wheat, winter rye,
spring barley, and corn are to be emphasized. The area under pulses
is also to expand. Land reclamation and the use of fertilizer on
pastures and on fodder crops is to increase yields of these grain crops
to the extent that pasture land can be switched to grain. Double
cropping on irrigated land and the expanded use of irrigated land
for grain are also to boost production. In addition, more liming will
support the program. Moreover, the availability of higher quality
machinery is to improve the speed of sowing and harvesting,
allowing the harvest of another 6 million tons of grain yearly.
(Zernovoye khozyaystvo, No. 3, 1976, p. 2-3, 18-19.)
?` The figure for the boost in grain output from increased
fertilizer application (55, percent) referred to the original 1976-80
goal of 215 million to 220 million tons.
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08SO135OR000602060001-3
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08SO135OR000602060001-3
preceding five years. An increase of this scope is
not unprecedented; production during the last
half of the 1960s exceeded the first half by 29
percent, as shown in table 5.
Table 5
Growth of Grain Output
Annual Average
Production
(Million Metric
Tons)
Change over
Preceeding Five-
Year Period
(Percent)
1956-60
........
121.5
37.3
1961-65
........
130.3
7.2
1966-70
........
167.6
28.6
1971-75
........
181.6
8.4
1976-80 Plan 220.4
21.4
To achieve the planned gain for 1976-80, grain
crops are scheduled to receive a minimum of 50
million tons (standard units) of mineral fertilizer
annually by 1980, and application rates will be
about four centners per hectare-twice the 1975
rate. These data imply a marginal response rate
of 1.1.25 The corresponding average response rate
is 1.2, which is consistent with the pattern of
diminishing returns illustrated in table 4.
Fertilizer allocations are planned to rise most
sharply in grain areas with sufficient moisture for
high response rates. Included in this area are the
RSFSR nonchernozem zone, Krasnodar, the
's This calculation was made as follows:
1. Annual average grain production 1971-75 - 181.6 million tons
2. Annual average grain production originally planned for 1976-
80 - 217.5 million tons
3. Planned annual average increase in grain production (line 2
minus line 1) - 35.9 million tons
4. Planned increment due to fertilizer (55 percent) - 19.7 million
tons
5. Planned increment in fertilizer application - 17.7 million tons
6. Response rate (line 4 divided by line 5) - 1.1.
We do not know how Soviet planners separate the effects of
fertilizer and nonfertilizer technology in making this calculation. In
practice the effects of fertilizer alone are difficult to measure in
estimating response rates. The alternative assumption-that all
increases in output should be attributed to fertilizer-produces an
overall response rate of 2 for 1976-80. This is derived by dividing
planned increases in grain output (35.9 million tons) by the planned
increment in fertilizer applications (17.7 million tons), which is
clearly an overstatement of the return to fertilizer. Output gains
attributable to improved cultural practices, use of other agricultural
chemicals, liming, improved varieties of grain, and the like help
boost yields.
southwest portions of the Ukraine, Belorussia, and
the Baltic republics. By 1980, grain crops in this
area will receive 7 to 9 centners of fertilizer per
hectare-up from 4.5 centners in 1974. The
RSFSR nonchernozem zone is to provide 31
million tons of grain in 1980, compared to an
annual average output of 20 million tons during
1971-75.
Supplies of fertilizer for the 1976-80 five-year
plan may be inadequate, however. Even if
production goals for 1980. are met, planned
applications to grain cannot be made unless
transportation and storage losses are reduced. If
losses remain at their present level of 10 to 15
percent of deliveries to agriculture, crops will
receive about 100 million tons of fertilizer in
1980 instead of the 115 million tons needed to
make planned applications on all crops.
Prospects for reducing losses are dim because
investment in transportation and storage is not
keeping pace with the rapidly growing fertilizer
supply. For example, the 1971-75 plan stipulated
a capacity of 20 million tons for bulk transporta-
tion of fertilizer in specialized, self-unloading
railroad cars by the end of 1975-about one-
fourth of 1975 deliveries to agriculture. Develop-
ment of specialized machinery to support bulk
transport is also behind schedule.
To double applications to grain by 1980 if
losses remain at 10 percent, the Soviets would
have to divert fertilizer from other uses. Higher
fertilizer applications to grain, however, will not
likely be made at the expense of technical crops.
Furthermore, with the increasing priority of
livestock, allocations of fertilizer to nongrain feed
crops are also important. On balance, plan
fulfillment over the next five years for applying
fertilizer to grain is likely to remain about 80
percent. Even at this rate, fertilizer promises to
.be the major weapon in the Soviet arsenal to
increase grain production.
The impact of increased fertilizer use over the
next five years will depend not only on the
Soviets' success in fulfilling application plans and
on response rates but also on a number of factors,
particularly weather, which is the dominant
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08SO135OR000602060001-3
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08SO135OR000602060001-3
variable in determining crop size. We do not
know what assumptions Soviet planners made
about weather in determining their original goal
for 1976-80 of 215 million to 220 million tons of
grain annually. As a test of the reasonableness of
the plans, we have prepared two projections of
grain output for 1976-80. Both projections assume
that the nearly normal weather of the early 1960s
will prevail during the period and that the
marginal response of fertilizer will be 1.1.26
Although these assumptions are too gross to
permit year-to-year predictions of grain produc-
tion, we believe they are precise enough to
indicate the trend in production and the potential
importance of technology, especially fertilizer.
Our projections incorporate the 1975 bench-
mark for grain output used in our recent study on
the impact of climate change on grain produc-
tion.27 Under Projection I, which assumes fertil-
izer goals are met, average annual production
during 1976-80 would equal 212 million tons, and
average yields would be 16.5 centners per
hectare.28 Projection II, which we believe con-
tains a more realistic assumption about fertilizer
88 In examining the impact of fertilizer on grain yields, we tested
a second methodology, which we discarded because it did not
produce reasonable projections. The methodology was derived from
a United Nations study of crop yields and fertilizer applications in
40 Western countries. (Food and Agriculture Organization, Crop
Production Levels and Fertilizer Use, Rome, 1962). Cross-sectional
data on grain yields per hectare and fertilizer applications to all
arable land were used for 1950-58. Data were not available for
fertilizer applications to grain alone. Moreover, the UN study did
not separate the contribution of fertilizer from the contribution of
other factors in increasing grain yields. The increases in yields were
taken as an expression of technological advances in agriculture, and
the average consumption per hectare of fertilizer was assumed to
represent the total input effort made. The projection was high to the
degree that weather has improved or advances have taken place in
harvesting practices, seed variety, and the like.
Although these assumptions appear reasonable, the formula
yielded an estimate of grain output for 1980 that is clearly too high:
22 centners per hectare and a total of 280 million tons. With average
annual output for 1976-80 planned at 220.4 million tons and yields
at 17 centners per hectare, grain output envisioned by this tech-
nique seems completely out of reach.
Assuming fertilizer plans are met and recent weather holds, the
UN formula predicts a total annual increment of 38.7 million tons of
grain during 1976-80. Reducing fertilizer applications would lower
the additional grain by a like amount.
81 CIA, op. cit. Our study of the impact of climate changes
grouped the years since 1962 according to weather conditions.
Weather in 1962-65 was near the long-term norm, whereas 1970-73
was characterized by favorable, or above average, weather. Each
applications, results in an average crop of about
200 million tons and average yields of 15.6
centners per hectare. The tabulation compares (a)
Soviet plan goals, (b) Projections I and II, and (c)
the projection used in the climate study.29 Actual
Annual
Yield Average Output
(Centners per Hectare) (Million Metric Tons)
Soviet plan goal 17.2 220.4
Projection I ...... 16.5 212
Projection II .... 15.6 200
Climate study.... 15.4 197
grain production may be considerably higher or
lower than projected, depending primarily on
weather conditions. Grain output in 1976 was
223.5 million tons, and a crop of 194 million tons
is estimated for 1977.
Projections I and II
The two projections differ in the assumptions
about the amount of fertilizer applied to grain
period was used to derive a 1975 benchmark from which to
extrapolate grain output to 1980. In projecting to 1980, however, the
climate study used the long-term technology trend (including
fertilizer), which does not account for Soviet plans to accelerate the
growth of grain-growing technology during 1976-80.
E8 Estimates of crop size from Projections I and II depend on the
choice of the 1975 benchmark. Possibilities include the planned
output of 205 million tons, actual output of 141 million tons, and a
value of a 195 million tons derived from .the long-term trend. For
this report-as in our climate study-we chose a fourth procedure: a
base of 184 million tons, which was derived by projecting the trend
in Soviet grain production during 1962-65, the period of near
normal weather. Although the base of 184 is consistent with the
planned response rate of 1.1 and with Soviet grain output goals for
1976-80, it is below the long-term trend and may also be below the
base used by Soviet planners to reconcile goals for fertilizer
applications and grain output. There is some support for an
alternative set of assumptions. Use of the long-term trend for the
base, given grain output goals, implies a lower response rate.
Plotting annual fertilizer applications to all crops against grain
output during 1960-76 suggests that the total response associated
with fertilizer may be somewhat less than 1.1. Regardless of the base
used for ex ante statistical projections, a return to "normal" weather
over the next several years would be reflected ex post in lower
response rates to fertilizer and other technology.
28 The climate study multiplied the projected yield times 130
million hectares to obtain estimated output of 200 million tons. This
report uses recently published Soviet plan data on grain area of 128
million hectares in 1980. Adjusting the climate study area to 128
million hectares yields an estimate of 197 million tons.
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08SO135OR000602060001-3
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08SO135OR000602060001-3
1977
1978
1979
1980
Projection I
Total ' ............................................
8.0
7.6
10.2
12.5
12.7
Additional grain from
fertilizer 8 ..............................
4.4
4.2
5.6
6.9
7.0
Additional grain from other
sources ................................
3.6
3.4
4.6
5.6
5.7
Projection II
Total ..............................................
2.3
5.6
6.8
7.8
7.9
Additional grain from
3.3
4.5
5.5
5.6
Additional grain from other
sources ' ................................
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
' Derived by dividing additional grain from fertilizer by 0.55 in accordance with Soviet plans that call for
increased use of fertilizer to account for 55 percent of increased output.
2 Table 7.
Total increase minus the increase from fertilizer.
' Assumes increments from other sources will be half the planned level during 1976-80.
and the impact of technology other than fer-
tilizer. Projection I assumes that goals for
increased fertilizer application and implementa-
tion of nonfertilizer technology are met (see
table 6). Projection II assumes that only four-
fifths of the fertilizer plan for grain will be met-
the record of the recent past-and only half of
the planned increases in nonfertilizer technology
are realized.30 Thus, under Projection I, fertilizer
applications to grain will increase from 2.0
centners per hectare in 1975 to 4.0 centners in
1980 (see table 7). Plans probably will not be met
because of losses in transportation and storage.
Under Projection II, therefore, application rates
would be only 3.2 centners per hectare in 1980.
The basis of the implicit Soviet plan for
nonfertilizer technology to contribute a cumula-
tive total of 87 million tons to grain production
over the current five-year period is uncertain,
although increased use of irrigated and drained
10 Although this assumption is arbitrary, generally the Soviets have
underfulfilled their plans for gains in yields from improved crop-
ping practices, introduction of higher yielding varieties, use of
pesticides and herbicides, expansion of sowings on irrigated land,
and other components of "technology gains." There is no way to
quantify the effect of these shortcomings on grain production.
land evidently will play a large role.31 The effects
of fertilizer and nonfertilizer technology, how-
ever, are inseparably linked in the case of land
reclamation; therefore, Soviet plans for increasing
grain output through land reclamation were not
quantifiable under the assumptions of Projections
I and II, which require separation of the
contributions of fertilizer and nonfertilizer tech-
nology. Another source of increased grain output
is restructuring the sown area to favor higher
yielding grains such as winter wheat, winter rye,
spring barley, and corn. By 1980, spring barley
and oats will occupy an additional 8 million to 8.5
million hectares, and corn area will increase by 2
million to 2.5 million hectares. Soviet planners
expect an increase of 3 million to 3.5 million tons
of barley and oats as well as a doubling of corn
output.32 Like land reclamation, however, these
output increases will be the result of both
fertilizer and nonfertilizer technology.
91 Grain output on irrigated and drained land is scheduled to grow
from 11.3 million tons in 1975 to 38 million tons in 1980. If plans are
met, a cumulative total of 68 million tons of additional grain could
be derived from these sources. Because fertilizer application plans
for reclaimed land have not been published, the 68 million tons
could not be allocated between fertilizer and nonfertilizer
technology.
32 Zernovoye khozyaystvo, No. 3, 1976, pp. 2-3.
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08SO135OR000602060001-3
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08S01350R000602060001-3
Projection I
Mineral fertilizer applied' ................................ 2.3
Total fertilizer applications ? .............................. 29
Increments in fertilizer applications 5 .............. 4.0
Additional grain attributable to fertilizer' ...... 4.4
Projection II
Mineral fertilizer applied ' ................................ 2.0
Total fertilizer applications 2 .............................. 25
Increments in fertilizer applications' .............. 0'
Additional grain attributable to fertilizer' ...... 0
Centners Per Hectare
2.6 3.0 3.5 4.0
Million Metric Tons
33 38 44 51
3.8 5.1 6.3 6.4
4.2 5.6 6.9 7.0
Centners Per Hectare
2.1 2.4 2.8 3.2
Million Metric Tons
26 31 36 41
3.0 4.1 5.0 5.1
3.3 4.5 5.5 5.6
' Data for 1976-79 are interpolated using 1975 and 1980 data and average annual rates of growth.
Application rates times hectares sown to grain in the socialized sector.
Calculated from unrounded data.
Increments in applications times response rate of 1.1. Unless the response rate function shifts upward
substantially, the response rate will be somewhat higher than 1.1 in 1976 and lower than 1.1 in 1980
consistent with the principle of diminishing returns. Soviet data, however, provide only an average response
rate for the entire period.
' Assumes that the 1976 application rate was the same as 1975. Eighty percent of the 1976 plan would put
the 1976 application rate at 1.8-below the 1975 rate of 2.0. Since a decline in the application rate was
unlikely, we assume no change for Projection II; thus, under the assumptions of Projection II, increases in
1976 grain yields came from sources other than mineral fertilizer.
The reasonableness of the goal for 1976-80 for
increases in yields from sources. other than
fertilizer cannot be gauged; but based on the past,
prospects for achievement seem dim. For exam-
ple, a Soviet agronomist implied that periods for
growing grain in 1971-75 were to be shortened
chiefly by removing present delays in sowing,
cultivation, and harvesting, contending that
delayed harvesting alone causes losses of 10
million to 13 million tons of grain per year.33
There is no evidence, however, that significant
improvement occurred in this area. Western
observers generally agree that no substantive
success in developing and disseminating new seed
varieties has been evident recently, that the use of
chemicals for weed and pest control is behind
schedule, and that expansion of fallow and anti-
erosion cropping fell below planned levels. The
average area under clean fallow during 1971-71-
declined from 18.4 million hectares in 1970 to
11.2 million hectares in 1975.34
ae F. Savitskiy, Ekonomika sel'skogo khozyaystva, No. 4, 1972, p.
10.
International Comparisons of Fertilizer Use
Data on world fertilizer consumption provide a
crude benchmark for gauging the Soviet record.
It is impossible, however, to compare the Soviet
fertilizer program with that of other countries
despite substantial international data on aggre-
gate fertilizer production, trade, and consump-
tion.35 Lack of aggregate country data on
fertilizer use by crop limits meaningful interna-
tional comparisons. The US Department of
Agriculture reports that "available data on food-
crop response to fertilizer are inconclusive and
inconsistent, particularly in the aggregate. "36 The
validity of international comparisons of fertilizer
use is further limited because of varying soil
'* Under the practice of clean fallowing, the land is not planted
and is cultivated only as needed to prevent weeds from growing.
The practice also permits accumulation of moisture and nitrogen in
the soil.
sa See, for example, Food and Agriculture Organization, Annual
Fertilizer Review 1974, Rome, 1975.
S6 USDA, Economic Research Service, Supplement to: World
Agricultural Situation, The World Fertilizer Situation: 1975 and
1980, p. 39
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08S01350R000602060001-3
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08SO135OR000602060001-3
types, moisture conditions, cropping practices,
and differences in relative factor costs and
product prices. For example, the primary US
grain crop is corn, which has high fertilizer
requirements, especially for nitrogen. The USSR
and Canada produce relatively little corn. As we
have seen above, the relative price of fertilizers
and wheat in the US and USSR would argue for a
relatively greater use of fertilizer per hectare in
the USSR-other things held equal.
Between 1960 and 1974, world consumption of
fertilizer almost tripled.37 Growth in use in the
Soviet Union has been more than twice the world
rate since 1960, but Soviet consumption still lags
behind most developed nations.SB According to a
United Nations study, Soviet use in 1960 of
nitrogen fertilizer per hectare of arable land
was about one-third that in developed nations (see
"National Fertilizer Development Center, Tennessee Valley
Authority, Fertilizer Trends 1973, p. 7.
se Data on Soviet fertilizer production, trade, and consumption
are provided in Appendix A.
World ............................................ 7.8 7.4 6.2 13.3 10.5 8.7 21.6 13.5 11.3 25.8 15.1 13.2
Developed countries .................... 18.2 20.2 16.3 28.4 27.3 20.9 39.2 31.0 24.8 41.3 28.7 24.7
North America' ........................ 12.5 11.7 9.1 22.8 17.4 13.8 32.7 20.0 17.2 33.2 18.2 16.9
United States ............................ NA NA NA 27.0 19.7 16.3 38.4 22.7 20.0 37.7 19.7 19.4
Western Europe ...................... 30.8 34.2 32.3 46.5 43.8 39.3 67.3 56.6 49.5 78.3 54.5 50.1
Oceania .................................... 1.0 26.0 3.1 2.0 34.1 4.5 3.4 24.0 4.4 4.3 20.8 4.8
Other ........................................ 44.1 34.9 34.2 47.0 38.7 35.8 53.3 46.3 35.3 47.6 51.4 42.6
Developing countries ................ 2.5 1.0 0.7 3.9 1.7 1.0 7.9 3.4 2.0 10.6 5.1 3.0
Africa .......................................... 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.5 1.5 1.2 0.7 2.2 1.6 1.1
Latin America .......................... 4.2 2.6 2.1 6.0 3.8 2.4 10.2 6.8 4.8 13.8 10.9 6.9
Middle East .............................. 3.6 1.1 0.1 5.8 2.1 0.2 9.8 3.9 0.3 14.5 6.4 0.6
Far East .................................... 2.9 0.7 0.4 4.4 1.4 0.9 10.8 3.1 1.9 13.8 4.2 3.2
Other ........................................ 1.3 0.1 NA 4.4 0.9 0.2 4.8 1.1 0.6 10.1 2.4 3.1
Centrally planned countries .... 5.8 4.6 4.7 13.7 8.5 9.1 26.5 12.7 13.3 35.2 18.0 18.5
Asia ............................................ 5.1 2.1 0.4 12.8 5.1 1.6 25.7 7.1 2.8 31.1 11.5 4.7
European USSR ........................ 5.9 5.7 6.5 14.2 10.1 12.5 26.9 15.3 18.2 37.3 21.2 25.3
' Data for the non-Communist countries are for the fertilizer years beginning 1 July of the stated year.
' Nutrients per hectare of arable land.
? Including the United States.
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization, United Nations, Annual Fertilizer Review, 1974, Rome, 1975, p. 47, 505; Annual Fertilizer
Review, 1975, Rome, 1976, pp. 56-62. Arable land includes land used for rotational crops, permanent crops, rotational meadows for mowing or
pastures, market and kitchen gardens, and rotational fallow.
table 8). By 1974, the ratio had risen to 90
percent. The complexity of international com-
parisons is illustrated by the fact that total
consumption in Canada was roughly one-tenth
that in the USSR. When measured by dosage per
hectare of agricultural land, however, fertilizer
usage in Canada was roughly half the USSR (see
table 9).39
Soviet fertilizer application patterns for grain
are similar to those in the US, where applications
to wheat increased by over half between 1965
and 1975. As in the USSR, fertilizer use is
concentrated in moist areas.40 For example, in
1975, 92 percent of wheat fields in the Great
Lakes area received an average of 139 kilograms
99 The UN use of "arable" land for some international compari-
sons and the more inclusive measure "agricultural" land for others
adds to the analytical problem.
'? This and subsequent comparisons of fertilizer use are for wheat
only. Ideally, comparisons should include all small grains; but US
fertilizer statistics are available only for wheat, corn, and soybeans.
Soviet fertilizer application rates for all grain, excluding corn, are
assumed the same as the rates for wheat.
Table 8
Consumption (by Region)
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08S01350R000602060001-3
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08SO135OR000602060001-3
Table 9
World Fertilizer Consumption (by Country), 1974/75
Total Consumption
(Million Metric Tons of
Nutrients) Percent of World Agricultural Land
World ............................ 81.5
United States ............ 15.9
USSR ........................ 13.7
Australia .................... 0.9
Canada ...................... 1.2
Argentina .................. 0.8
Index: World
Kilograms Total=100
100.0 17.9 100.0
19.5 37.2 207.8
16.8 34.9 195.0
1.1 1.8 10.0
1.5 17.9 100.0
1.0 0.5 2.8
' Agricultural land includes arable land (see table 8) plus land under permanent meadow and pastures.
Statistics for the USSR are for calendar year 1974, whereas data for the other countries are for the fertilizer
year beginning 1 July.
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization, United Nations, Annual Fertilizer Review 1975, Rome, 1976
p. 63-73, 181.
per hectare, whereas only 55 percent of Ne-
braska's relatively dry wheat area was fertilized,
with dosages averaging only 109 kilograms per
hectare.
US-USSR comparisons of fertilizer use and
wheat output in roughly comparable soil-climate
regions are shown in table 10." Only a small
share of the total wheat area can be compared
because most of the USSR's wheat growing region
is like the prairie provinces of Canada. Further-
more, Soviet fertilizer application data is avail-
able by republic and not by soil-climate zone.
Comparisons are thus limited to areas where
Soviet soil-climate zones and republic boundaries
coincide.
Overall, wheat yields and fertilizer use are
higher in the US than in the USSR. On a regional
basis, however, the picture is mixed. In the wet
areas of Lithuania and Michigan, where fertilizer
application rates are similar, wheat yields are
slightly higher in the USSR. The analogous areas
of the Ukraine and western Washington, how-
ever, have about the same yields with the Soviet
area receiving less fertilizer. The Georgian
" USDA, Future Crop Yields and Fertilization in the Soviet
Union, 1964. Analogies were selected for comparability in produc-
tion conditions such as soil, climate, and length of growing season.
Comparisons of other crops require different analogies.
Republic - Oklahoma comparison shows greater
fertilizer use and higher wheat yields in the
USSR.
Table 10
US and USSR: Fertilizer Use and Wheat Yields, 1975
Area
Annual
Average,
Receiving
Nutrients
1971-75
Fertilizer
Applied'
Wheat Yield e
US ................................
63%
57
20.4
USSR ............................
48%
42
14.5
Analogous Regions
Nebraska ............
55%
56
24.0
Washington .........
97%
122
28.8
Ukranian SSR ....
86%
70
28.4
Minnesota ............
95%
134
22.8
Michigan ............
98%
152
25.6
Lithuanian SSR ..
99%
140
28.8
Oklahoma ............
66%
64
16.0
Georgian SSR ......
86%
136
17.9
' Kilograms per hectare.
Centners per hectare.
Sources: USDA, Fertilizer Use on Crops: 1975, unpublished
manuscript, p. 10; USDA, Fertilizer Situation, 1977, p. 17.
Narodnoye khozyaystvo SSSR, v 1974, godu, pp. 347, 357. USDA,
Agricultural Statistics, 1975, p. 6. The Soviet yields shown represent
a 10-percent reduction of the officially claimed yields given in the
sources. This minimum discount reflects a correction for the excess
moisture and trash beyond that found in US wheat.
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08SO135OR000602060001-3
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDPO8SO135OR000602060001-3
Mineral Fertilizer Production, Net Exports, and Deliveries to Agriculture
1980
1960
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975 Plan
Standard Units'
Production ? ......................
13.9
17.3
19.9
25.5
31.3
35.8
40.1
43.4
45.8
55.4
61.4
66.1
72.3
80.4
90.2 143
Exports ..............................
1.1
1.7
1.9
1.3
1.5
2.1
2.8
3.3
3.3
5.0
5.6
5.9
6.6
7.6
7.8
Deliveries to agriculture
11.4
13.6
15.9
22.0
27.1
30.5
33.7
36.2
38.8
45.6
50.5
54.8
60.0
65.9
75.3 115
Nitrogen ........................
3.7
5.2
6.6
8.6
11.1
13.0
15.1
16.8
18.5
22.5
25.3
27.4
30.5
32.9
36.1
Phosphorus ....................
5.8
6.3
7.0
9.8
11.3
12.9
13.4
14.0
14.7
16.9
18.5
19.5
20.7
24.0
27.0
Potassium ......................
1.8
2.0
2.2
3.4
4.6
4.6
5.1
5.2
5.6
6.2
6.7
7.8
8.7
8.9
12.0
Nutrients '
Production ? ......................
3.3
4.1
4.6
6.0
7.4
8.4
9.4
10.2
10.7
13.1
14.7
15.9
17.4
19.4
22.0
Exports ..............................
0.37
0.54
0.61
0.42
0.48
0.67
0.92
1.1
1.1
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.9
3.0
Deliveries to agriculture
2.6
3.1
3.6
5.0
6.3
7.0
7.7
8.3
8.9
10.4
11.4
12.5
13.8
15.0
17.5
Nitrogen ........................
0.8
1.1
1.4
1.8
2.3
2.7
3.1
3.4
3.8
4.6
5.2
5.6
6.2
6.7
7.4
Phosphorus ....................
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.8
2.1
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.8
3.2
3.5
3.7
3.9
4.5
5.1
Potassium ......................
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.4
1.9
1.9
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.6
2.8
3.2
3.6
3.7
5.0
' All data are from official Soviet statistics on production, exports, and deliveries of fertilizer. Nutrient values are calculated based on the
following assumptions of nutrient content: phosphate fertilizers, 18.7-percent P,O,; ammonium sulfate, 20.5-percent N; potash, 41.6-percent
K,O.
Fertilizer production is allocated to exports, agriculture, industrial use, and inventory change; statistical information is not available on
inventory change or industrial use.
*Not available.
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDPO8SO135OR000602060001-3
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDPO8SO135OR000602060001-3
Derivation of Applications of Mineral
Fertilizer to Crops
This appendix is a description of the sources and methodology used in
deriving the estimates presented in tables B-1 and B-2. For the most part, total
fertilizer applied is the product of the application rate and hectares sown in
the socialized sector of agriculture. In some cases, however, total applications
Mineral Fertilizer Application to Crops
1960 1965 1970 1972 1975 1980 Plan 111 f ? 7*
Total applications .................... 11.29 35.92 45.17 73.18 115 'N.9
Grain ...................................... 2.19 5.97 14.62 19.07 25.20 51 Z9.
Forage crops, grasses,
cultivated meadows,
and pastures ...................... 1.40 2.60 7.20 10.2 20.93 35 2-f-2-
Technical crops ...................... 5.96 * 10.21 11.02 15.31 17
Cotton ................................ 2.48 3.20 4.65 4.76 5.46
Sugar beets, industrial ...... 1.89 3.22 3.56 4.15 6.20 * s'
Flax .................................... 0.89 0.81 0.72 0.801 3.65 * ~? 2
Sunflower seeds and other 0.70 * 1.28 1.31
Potatoes .................................. 1.08 1.30 2.27 2.76 8.201 11,y
Vegetables and melons ........ 0.38 0.62 0.82 1.32 1.39 } 1,
Orchards and vineyards ........ 0.28 0.80 0.80 2.15 2 f
* Standard units. 5, 19") $ rs`I
Not available.
Table B2
Mineral Fertilizer Application Rates to Crops
1960 1965 1970 1972 1975 1980 Plan
Grain ...................................... 0.19 0.47 1.24 1.6 2.0 4.0
Forage crops, grasses,
cultivated meadows,
and pastures ...................... * 1.2 1.7 2.0 3.1
Technical crops ...................... 4.5 7.0 7.6 10.9 12.1
Cotton ................................ 11.3 13.1 16.9 17.4 18.8
Sugar beets, industrial ...... 6.2 8.3 10.6 11.9 16.9
Flax .................................... 5.5 5.5 5.6 6.4 *
Sunflower seeds and other 1.1 * 1.8 1.9 4.4
Potatoes .................................. 2.3 3.2 6.6 8.1 10.4 10.0
Vegetables and melons ........ 2.4 4.4 5.4 8.3 8.2
Orchards and vineyards ........ 1.0 * 2.7 2.7 7.2 7.2
'Centners per hectare sown.
* Not available.
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDPO8SO135OR000602060001-3
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08SO135OR000602060001-3
are given; and application rates are derived by dividing total applications by
sown area. Data on annual fertilizer applications to individual crops are scarce.
For 1960, 1965, 1970, and 1972, however, fairly complete data have been
assembled. Data for the intervening years-1961-64, 1966-69, 1971, and 1973-
74-contain numerous gaps. Total applications of mineral fertilizer and
application rates for industrial crops are derived as follows.
1960
Grain-Total applications in 1960 are from T. P. Unanyants, Ekonomi-
cheskaya effektivnost' khimizatsii sel'skogo khozyaystva, Moscow, 1964, p.
48. Application rates are derived by dividing total applications by sown area.
Data on sown area are from the Soviet statistical handbooks.
Forage crops, grasses, cultivated meadows, and pastures-Total
applications are from the source above. Data on sown area are not available to
calculate application rates.
Cotton-Methodology and sources are the same as those used for grain.
Sugarbeets-Application rate is from V. M. Borisov, ed., Spravochnaya
kniga po khimizatsii sel'skogo khozyaystva, Moscow, 1969, p. 623. Total
applications are derived by multiplying the application rate times sown area.
Flax-Application rate is that for flax and hemp combined. Methodology
and sources are the same as those used for grain.
Sunflower seeds, other technical crops, potatoes, vegetables, and
melons-Methodology and sources are' the same as those used for grain.
Orchards and vineyards-Total quantity of fertilizer applied is from
Unanyants, op. cit. Hectares sown are not readily available in statistical
handbooks; therefore, hectares for 1970 were estimated by dividing total
quantity of fertilizer applied in 1970 by 1972 application rates from N. N.
Baranov, Ekonomika ispol'zovaniya udobreniy, Moscow, 1974, p. 59.
1965
Grain and Cotton-Doklady i soobshcheniya No. 45, Moscow, 1968, p.
Forage crops, grasses, cultivated meadows, and pastures-Total
applications are from A. M. Yemel'yanov, Osnovy ekonomiki i upravleniya
sel'skokhozyaystvennym proizvodstvom, Moscow, 1972, p. 189.
Sugar beets-Application rates for 1965 are from Borisov, op. cit., which
also gives 1960 application rates. Total applications are derived by multiplying
application rates times hectares sown.
Flax-The application rate is arbitrarily estimated at the 1960 level. Total
applications are derived as for sugar beets above.
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08SO135OR000602060001-3
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08S01350R000602060001-3
Potatoes-See source for grain and cotton.
Vegetables and melons-Application rate in kilograms of nutrients is
from Narodnoye khozyaystvo, 1965, p. 362. Nutrients are divided by 20
percent to obtain standard units. Total applications are derived by multiplying
application rates times hectares sown.
Grain-Total fertilizer applications in nutrients are given in Baranov, op.
cit. p. 120. These are converted to standard units by dividing by 22.4 percent.
Total applications in standard units are divided by hectares sown to grain to
derive the application rate.
Forage crops, cultivated meadows, and pastures-Total applications in
standard units are from A. M. Yemel'yanov, op. cit. Total applications are
divided by hectares sown to derive the application rate.
Cotton, sugar beets, flax, sunflower seeds, potatoes, vegetables, and
melons-Total fertilizer applied to these crops is from Baranov, op. cit. p. 59.
Total applications are divided by sown area to derive the application rate.
Orchards and vineyards-Total applications and the application rate for
1972 are arbitrarily assumed valid for 1970.
All crops-Application rates are from Baranov, op. cit. pp. 30, 315. Total
applications are derived by multiplying application rates times hectares sown.
1975
Grain-Ekonomika sel'skogo khozyaystva No. 4, 1976, p. 50 gives total
applications which are divided by 1975 sown area to obtain application rates.
Sown area for all crops in 1975 is from SSSR v tsifrakh v 1975 godu, p. 111.
Forage crops, grasses, cultivated meadows, and pastures-Total
applications are derived as a residual. Application rates are derived by
dividing total applications by sown area which is the sum of the official figure
for forage crops (65.6 million hectares) and 42.1 million hectares for meadows
and pastures.
Technical crops, orchards, and vineyards-Vestnik statistiki, No. 5,
1976, pp. 95-96 gives application rates in nutrients for cotton and sugar beets.
These are converted to standard units by nutrient contents of 20.9 percent for
cotton and 23.6 percent for sugar beets. Total applications are derived by
multiplying application rates times sown area. Application rates are derived
by dividing total applications by sown area.
Potatoes-Methodology is the same as for cotton and sugar beets.
Nutrient content of fertilizer used is 24.4 percent.
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08S01350R000602060001-3
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08SO135OR000602060001-3
Vegetables and melons-These crops are assumed to receive 74 percent
of the quantity of nutrients applied to potatoes as in 1973. Derivation of
application rates is the same as for cotton and sugar beets.
1980 Plan
Application rates for 1980 are estimated by assuming that 115 million tons
of fertilizer will be delivered to agriculture in 1980.
Grain-Total applications will be about 50 million tons according to A. I.
Stepanov in Zernovoye khozyaystvo, No. 3, 1976, p. 19. Sown area is estimated
by dividing planned grain yield for 1976-80 of 17.2 centners per hectare
(Ekonomika sel'skogo khozyaystva, No. 4, 1976, p. 44) into planned grain
output of 215 million to 220 million tons (ibid.). Application rates are derived
by dividing 50 million tons by estimated sown area.
Forage crops, grasses, cultivated meadows, pastures, and technical
crops-Total fertilizer applications are derived as a residual assuming a total
supply of 115 million tons. The application rate is derived by dividing total
applications by 1975 hectarage.
Potatoes, vegetables, and melons-Application rates are held at 1975
levels reflecting the Soviet claim that by the end of the 1971-75 plan, the
annual fertilizer needs of these crops will be fully met or almost fully met. See
Gosudarstvennyy pyatiletnyy plan razvitiya narodnogo khozyaystva SSSR na
1971-75 gody, Moscow, 1972, p. 190; also Pronin in Ekonomika sel'skogo
khozyaystva, No. 1, 1971, p. 12. For potatoes, actual 1975 applications are
used; for vegetables and melons, 1975 plan data are used.
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP08SO135OR000602060001-3