PACIFIC OCEAN ISLANDS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP08C01297R000800160002-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 28, 2012
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: April 17, 1979
• Content Type: MEMO

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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/28: CIA-RDP08C01297R000800160002-7
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17 April 1979
MEMORANDUM FOR: Deputy Director for National Foreign Assessment
FROM: Director of Central Intelligence
SUBJECT: Pacific Ocean Islands
1. Attached is a two-page paper on why the island areas of the
Pacific Ocean are important today and how their importance may grow
in the future. With it is a longer study of this issue. Both were
done by a professor friend of mine from the University of Kansas
named Felix Moos. He did the basic study while on assignment with
the Department of State recently. He did the two-page condensation
at my request. I had in mind that this is an area we have never
discussed during my time with the Agency. It's an area I have never
presented anything to the President on. Perhaps it is not worth
either but I suspect it might make a useful topic for a short discussion
in both fora.
2. I would appreciate your looking it over with a particular
reference to whether there are intelligence requirements that might
come out of this area in the next few years.
STANFIELD TURNER
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/28: CIA-RDP08C01297R000800160002-7
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/28: CIA-RDP08C01297R000800160002-7
WHY THE PACIFIC?
1. The "fisheries issue" - and the US's position on off-shore fishing
of "highly migratory species" within the 200 mile economic zones of the
Pacific Island nations.
South Pacific Forum nations control more than 6 million square miles
of ocean that are extraordinarily rich in fish and other marine resources.
Estimated annual fish catch is some 462,000 + metric tons, mostly tuna,
but Pacific Island nations so far account for only 10 per cent of that catch,
Japan 60 per cent, ROK, Taiwan and USSR are principal other "outside"
beneficiaries.
Greater US interest is advisable as eastern Pacific waters are being
rapidly depleted. (The US currently consumes more than half of the
world tuna production).
Pacific Island perception is that control of fisheries resources is the
only option for island-micro-states to control their economic destiny--
this becomes major foreign policy issue for the Pacific region.
With Micronesia's 1.5 million square miles of ocean and the SPF's 6 million
square miles these potential resources, ultimately recoverable, may surpass
any dry land area contained resources.
2. Not until the late 1960s did the idea of independence spread in the
Pacific --most major powers have been rather indifferent until now. The
Japanese are back. The Chinese are here and so is the USSR. What was
primarily a Western-controlled area (every island from Indonesia to Hawaii
controlled by France, Britain, Australia, New Zealand or the United States)
has become an arena for potential conflict.
? 3. With the assumption that Japan no longer can use the Malacca straits for
super tanker traffic to and from the Middle East, the straits of Lombok have
assumed an immense importance for Japan. Japan's sea lanes now pass through
Micronesian waters, and in terms of traffic with Australia, through the waters
of Melanesia as well. Soviet naval activities in the Pacific are on the rise,
and so is the USSR's ability to influence,potentially, Japan's continued
access and supply of raw materials. As a result the USSR's direct interests
in the Island nations are concomittently, also heightened.
_ -
4. With an assumption that Japan has decided not to rely on the United States
any longer for all of its defense needs and capabilities, Japan may choose
eventually a) becoming a neutral andnuclear-free Pacific power, or b) she
will, in earnest commence to re-arm and thus,eventually require different
security and strategic arrangements in the Western and South Pacific.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/28: CIA-RDP08C01297R000800160002-7
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Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved forRelease2012/09/28 : CIA-RDP08C01297R000800160002-7
a---;S: Japan has established embassies in Papua New Guinea and Fiji. Japanese
Overseas Volunteers (Peace Corps) personnel are active in Western Samoa
and on other Pacific islands. Japanese tourists are the most visible
of all the tourists in the area -- The Pacific Island nations want the
United States to re-assure them, in terms of this extensive Japanese presence,
by some increased attention, either by regional or bi-lateral arrangements.
6. The USSR has, through her overtures to countries like Tonga and Western
Samoa, brought about a greater PRC presence in the area. The PRC Embassy
in Western Samoa has some 14 individuals assigned to it!
7. There continues to exist a great reservoir of good will towards the
United States in Melanesia and Polynesia. This good will can be maintained
by small-scale, low cost and well planned_ economic and technical assistance.
However, such integrated planning for Micronesia, Polynesia and Melanesia
should be initiated now.
8. The negotiations with Micronesia have entered. a critical (final?) phase--
In Micronesia the US has created economic and political expectations that
- may not be fulfilled. The "price" for Micronesian options is rising rapidly,
good will towards the United States in Micronesia is being eroded - and thus,
other political influences may well play an increasing role. Thus, the
relationship between the four Micronesia entities (N. Marianas, the Federated
States of Micronesia, Palau and the Marshalls) and the US will become more
complex, rather than less.
9. Although a new base agreement with the Philippines has been concluded,
other Pacific options may have to be kept open. Such options should take
into account possible other defense arrangements in Japan, Korea and the
Philippines than those now in existence. Pacific islands may provide some
interim solutions. (Palau, N. Marianas).
10. IkalLAustralia and New Zealand have tacitly come to welcome a greater
role for the7US-in the Pacific islands region. .
11. Low intensity conflict on Papua New Guinea's border with West Irian,
and strong support for the PM movement within Papua New Guinea, may provide
-eventual possibility for "outside" involvement in this conflict.
12. Fijits-600,000 population is now more than half Indian. Some racial
unrest could well become an issue- that might be exploited by "outside"
forces.
13. Rising social tensions in such traditional island societies as Tonga and
Western Samoa - may result in changed political and economic aspirations
in which "outside" forces may increasingly become involved.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/28: CIA-RDP08C01297R000800160002-7