CURRENT CONDITIONS IN SISTAN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP08C01297R000100130008-1
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 6, 2012
• Sequence Number: 8
• Publication Date: May 31, 1960
• Content Type: MISC

atri, CiI111.*1
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PRIORITY (Security Classification)
FOREIGN SERVICE DESPATCH
Anactioul 1-1151D 34
DEEP. NO.
THE DEPARTMENT OP STATE. WASHINGTON.
Tehran Despatch lo. 636 of Anril 9# 1960
ACTION
apt.
lay 31,1 1960
DATE
} /tee- // 2
REVD F OTHER
.04.7 /AL /-6?
114,46
SUBJECT:
CO:11E11S
SMEARY
CURREZIS CCE1DIS/0116 SISSA1
Agricultural ConditLans
Attitudes toward Afghanistan
The nous or X1110(1153L7
colsuLitsx cOTE rr5 ups itAt LE APPoRli marl
PROSPEas OF aOLIY11311
STIttlARY
2
4
5
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This year's stater crepe in Siatan (wheat and barley) apperr satisfactory
despite the feet that the flow of neloondurter into Stat an during the winter wre
abommallylcur.
The attitude of Iranirns in Mean tourrd Afghanistan is strongly colored
by the water problem* Iranians think the Afghans culpable of controlling at will
The flow into Siston red believe the Afghans deliberately use this paler to inflict
harm on Irtn.
Italconsult engineers are busy on a development progrrm far Steen. Their
work is still chiefly in the !Arra of survey. Py the end of 1960 Iialconsult
intends to present the Plea Organisation vith its proposrls, thich will probrbly
inelude an eatimate of Ms:tents rte' needs as uell rs alternrtive development
promms depending on that, if nuy, aapecnent nay be reached between Afghenittrn
and Iran on lelreudtelter epportionment* Italconsultts report will probably firui
that Sista, if it is to bit developed according to its potential, requires an
'average annual floe conelderably in excess of that Afghanistan has so far offc.-
Rahomastry t30JPILL:71 IAL
REPORTER
INFORMATION COPY
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The question at water wportionmeat should be a technical rather flan a lit.
ical 008 Siam all available ?video?e indiantaa that the total TielnuArtnaff is
sufficient, at-least in manual yeares to meet all the present end anticipated
needs of both Countries. But while there seems little liklihooa that the total
manual flow into Staten has be or Will be it too 3= far Iranian needs, it
appears probable that Afghan works ori the upper Retimead can adversely afftct the
seasonal flow 1140 Sistan, Therefore a tecivaical Study is needed to deteradne
how lite flow cat be regulated to the best advantage of both COUIttriee?
Shore are Strong incentives, both economic and political, pressing Iran to
seek a solution Of the Selmand Tatters issue* Referring the prablen to an inter-
national orgenizietion would be one poesibility* If further bilateral negotiations
are to he et/ esepted,? it is up to Iran to maim the next approach. /t might well be
advantageous for Iran to accept on an basis the best Afensa offer obtainable
on average annual flat into Sista= in sbflm for Afghan agreement to make a Joint
technical study. The United States might encourage the Iranian Government to make
such an approach it an appropriate times and perhaps also encourage the Afghan
Covernaent to consider such an Iranian approach sympathetically. An additional
stimulto toward reaching an undaratanding might be provided if the United States
announced its mulingeoss to consider sympathetically the possibility of assisting
in the constructioa of works which the two countries, as the revolt of a technical
study, agreed upon as necesste7 or desirable in order to regulate the Helmand
flow to the best interests of both countries*
CURRENT CONDITIMIS 1 SWIM.
Agricultural Conditions
In Staten the major crops are dieat and barleys which. are planted in the fall
and harvested In the spring* harvesting of berlev was in progress at the time of
the reporting officer's visit to the region in late 'il, thile harvesting of
wheat WA due to begin in about two leeks. Although he mild not molly statistics,
the Director of Agriculture and Irrigation for Steen, Engineer () ruriAnsp
estimated that this spring's crape wild be Sightly la Thu
rger then last years,
This would indicate that 19t0 crape are likely to be better than average as compared
with recent years* Chiefly responsible for the laprovemant? saiording to Mr,
Manasis was the opening of a new course for the Amer canal, which carries water
from Just above the Koh& icr tiladanagi) diversion dem ncrThaxd to the fertile
Itienicangi district, (The course formerly followed by the Asir canal had become
blocked by said dunes') Even with the resaligned coma in operation it is only
passible to irrigate a part of the itiankaigi district, The yield on this land,
however, was apparently sufficient to raise &Wants total crop yield despite a
Sight decrease in another district, Stdbab, (The Mayor of *bolo Dirt ruartexas
stated that 33 of about 75 villages in Shibab were deserted because of the leek
of water reaching that district. HowMirip much of this exodus, thich may in any
case be eacaggerateds probably took place in peat years rather than Jost recently.)
In the other two districts (bakhaths) into which Staten is administratively divided,
Posht-Ab and Shahrekieklaruis the yield this year is expected to appraelmate that
of last year,
In view of the paucity of letter reaching Sisten during the past winters the
relatively satisfactory condition of the area's crops is remarkable* With an
*
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average annual rainfall of only 2.07 inches, Sistan is overebelminglytteemslant
upoa the Helmond waters which reach it fete Afttanistan, UormeIly the river flow
buildatoctring the fall months to reach its highest rate daring February and
March, after which it gradually falls off to its nadir in the late summer. From
The spring of 1959 this cycle apparently proceeded mare or lees normally until
neer the end of 1959* then the flow, instead of continuing to lemmas, began to
casidee According to Iranian officials in Staten, the rats of flag/readied a
log of 16 cubic meters per second in Februag7 and early Mereh, just wham the
greatest flow is usuaIly needed and expected. (According to the Report of the
Heammmilttear Delta Caemission, the average diversion requirement for Elston during
February is 66 and during March 62 chble esters per emend. These two maths alone
acdount for almost half of the total annual reqpirements computed* the Commission.
Sea Camincion Report, po 95e) In the third week of March, Iranian officials
state, the Mw roes to 38 cubic tere peramond, but then subsided again to 18.
Aleut in Amil an adequate flow (over 40 WM* meters per second) began to arrive.
Engineer Manavi estimated that the totalamunt of Hamad eater received by
Siatee during the Irenien year 1336 (March 22, 1959-1areh 20 1960) was hOE less
than that received in the previous year. Even allowing far 1Pralable inaccuracy
in this figures, as wen as in Mope reported above for water flaw, it is certain
that the flow of water reedhing Mem during the pant winter use considerably
belts, normele This fact was oorrOborated by Italian engineers attadhed to Ital..
coneult? an organization engaged by the Plan Organization to work on a dsvelopmenL
protTem for the whole Sten-Balnehestan area. What saved the crops &Garvin was,
on The one hand the indreasedflowwhidh finally reached Stet= and, on the other
hand, abnormal; high rainfall in the latter part of Wrch and in April..
The total population which Staten supporta has apparently not diadmished in
recant years; in fact any Change seems to have been in the direction of moWth.
Estimates given to the reporting officer this spring were in the range of 1160000
to 10,000. This neer be Compared with the eatimate of 100,000 to 125,000 fOrniebed
Coagulate officers visiting Sistan five years ago. One Is still inbreed by local
offleials that many people have had to leave the regions most of then going to the
Careen plain east of the Caspian Sea. It is probable that same migration of this
type did take place some years ago but that in recent years little has been added
to it. In any case mommaant of this nature is probably largely seasonal, some
persdhs supplementing their incomes by working part of the year in the Dorgan area.
Local officials state that there is no migration fron Stettin acme the border into
Afghahistane On the contrary* they claim that same momemmat in the opposite
direction takes place,
Estimates of the total area of land under cultivation In Slates vary so
widely That it is impossible to determine elhether there has bean any eigalacant
Ohm&
in recent yearee Engineer Monad ateted that about 75,000 hectares ware
under buitivation during the 195944960 season, The Governor of Sistan? Mre (feu)
MINI, gave the figure as 60,000 haetarese Fromestody of aerial photogrerawip
nal:moult anglneers estimate that the total area currently Irrigable is about
100,000 hectares, of which in my given year crayons half or less is actually
cultivated, theremaimier lying fallow. With these figures =orbs compared the
70*000 hectares reported to Consulate officers in 1955 and the estimate of 62,000
hecteree arrived at by the Helmand Fiver Delta Ccamiaaion in 1950.
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Whatever the trus figures twar be, it seems probably that a slightly larger
area vas cultivated during 1959.60 than hal been cultivated the previous season,
owing simply to the additional land in the Miankangi district which we irrigated
by the re-aimed Asar canal. %waiver, there is no indication that there has been
any shbstantial change in area under cultivation since the study made by the
Helmand River Delta Coomission.
Iranian officials repart that, as a result of the subnormal flour of water,
there is considaisably less water than usdal in t (lake) area. As a result,
they claim, fewer cattle can be supported by the marl land around the lakes.
hbginver &avid estimated that there uere now About 60,000 heed of cattle in
Sultan, a figure far below the 150,000 reported by a previous Director of Agri-
cultura in 1955 and 1956. riouever? an this subject too accurate statiatice are
lacking,
Attitudes toward Afgilenistan
It is not surprising that in Sistan sentimeate taaard Afghanistan, and, to soap
extent toraerd the United States aid the Soviet Union, are profatedly calmed by
the water problem, The conviction encomatamni in the Iranian portion of the Hawed
delta is that Afghanistan try means of its new works an the upper Helmand, is
able to control almost dal' the flow of water into the delta, and therefore into
Iranian Staten. For having made this possible by aiding the Afghans with their
upper Helmand projects, the United States comes in for atmwery share of blame.
It is further believed that Afghanistan twee its power over the water flow not
merely without regard to Iranian needs but for the deliberate purpose of inflicting
harm on Iran. In so doing the Afghans tire presumed to be carrying out the purposes
of their Soviet masters, for Afghanistan is regarded as essentially a Soviet
satellite.
Lacking any reliable information about conditions in Afghanistan, Iranians
In Sistaa are not in possession of facts Which would tend to modify the prevrleat
type of attitude described above. They do not know, far example, Utast extent
the upper Helmand projects are really capable of controlling the flow into the
Delta; nor do they have any infermation as to the VW the Afghans are operating
Their works. Whether condition() in the Helmond basin in Afghanistan, ehldh also
profoundly affeot the flan of water into the Delta, are also UnkeONIS. As at the
time the Delta Coarission uus stuOyina the area, and again in 1955 and 1956 %i
Consulate officers visited Sistaa, there is still today ne oil:Change of hydrological
or meteorological data across the border between Afghanistan and Iran. Under such
circumetanoes Iranian) in Staten are free to ascribe either shortages or surpluses
avatar entirely to Afghan action 'without reference to natural causes beyond
Afghan control. In the spring of 1955 the prdblem was flood, vbidh the Afghans
are supposed to have caused by storing up a vast quantity of water behind their
dale (prenatally The Kajakai), then releasing it all at anon, The Argument That
The Afghans would not have deliberately done sudh a thing eines the resulting flood
would have passed through hundreds of miles of Afghan territory, causing mudh
damage there before roaching Iran, makes little impreesion on Iranians. The pre-
sent Governor cd'Sistan =pressed the belief that the Afghans ware egite capable
of inflicting some darege on their oval territory simply to cause serious trouble
for Iran.
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Since 195$ there has been no major problee of flood in Staten, This past
winter, hotewers the opposite type of difficulty was encountered-shortage of water.
Again the prevalent conviction is that the low flow was deliberately caused ty
Afghan managemint of the upper Helmand Works, In support of this theory several
Iranian officials pointed out that the rate of flow rose from a law of 16 cubic
meters per sectond to 38 =tic meters per seconci just at the time Afghan Prigs
Minister DAM) tes visiting Teln-an (March 17-March 219 1960), One officials the
mayor of Zabol* even opined that it was no accident that the rate of flow mas at
its lowest thile Soviet Premier KHRUSHCTIM was Visiting Kabul (Mar% 2-4iarch 5* 1960).
*Ale Iretdan vises are based more upon cobjecttre than upon facto it is
significant ttikt an Italian exigineer for Italoonsults Pk*, (fez) P/R0* taw is a
spec:tate; on Water qtaestionsa also attributes both the flood of 19'55 and this
year's low'lew to Afghan operation of the upper Helmand works* in particular The
Kajakai demo He suggests that in 1955 the Afghans tem perhaps 130 litcreared end
pleased by the, acauellation of water behind the may coupleted Kajakei dam that
,Thw: were mon Itng to let any escape despite the advice of American engineers
uorldng for Mcfrrison-anedeem Afghanistan (VEA). Finally* hammer* Thor began to
fear that the dam was I "roll t* cracks arid for this reason suddenly released a
great quantity of water, As *cards this yearis paucity of waters Mr, Piro alleges
that a basin df the sire and nature of that of The Hebaand must necessarily provide
even in the wet unfavorable seasons a meth greater supply of muter than has been
rerching Sistab *Airing The past season,and that therefore the abnormally low flow
mist have beeri caused by Afghaa contro amasures,
The Iranian attitude being laust it is, construction of a dam on the lower
Helmand in Afghanistan* near Slatting would naturally be of great concern to Iranians.
be 00Vernar or sistan at ted *at, according to his infontations the Afghans had
intended to cciustruct such a dais and a team of Sotiet engineers had even come to
survey the sitar. However, be understood that preastre by MA, *deb had Threatened
to stop lark oh the upper Helmand and withdraws had obliged Afgbanistal to abandon
this projects at least for the Present,
1Ht RCLE OF ITALCONSULT
Since 195i an organisation called Italconsult4 a coalbination of Italian firms*
has been engsgxki by the Plan Organisation cm a bask development program for the
Whole Sistan-bilechestan region, Inevitably some aspeots or the work Italoonsult
is doing in Staten are closely involved with the giestion of The flow of water
reaching the region from the Halanaxd River, Italetteult projects may be divided
into those applicable to the 3ietan.u.Babicheotai province as a chole and Those
conorctrated upon particular sections of The provinte, Zle following projects for
the entire region have been undertaken:
1, Meteorological End hydrdersphic service, titmeraus stations have been
established throughout The provinbe and the date is being processed &womanly,
2. Research for underground eater, (Preliminary studies indicate that there
is little possibility of using undermound water for irrigation in Sistano)
3. Potable water supply to villages, (Several water paints have been set
up in Staten.)
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h. Health and sanitary assistance.
5. Driultipxrpose technical training program,
For Sista* in particular Italcoesult is :livered in the following projects:
1. Flood eamtrol awl irrigatios plan, In connection with this a laboratory
has beam eatabllsbed at Zabel to analyze sal samples, hydrelogical stations have
been 1m:tailed:Nod data is being:processed, endows oft** area based, largely
on an aerial survey made by the ?aim Campemy in 1956 have been prepared.
2. Oeodetio survey, This project has been completed
3. Agricultnral development. An experimental farm north of Zabel le under
construction, mei its linistay or Agriculture's experimental garden at Zabol has
been takea over, Some pilot extensicn service bee been started, and agricultural
equipment has been acquired, Aveterinary campaign involving mass Inoculations
and pest control has been carried out,
h. Land reelamation. Construction of 60 kilometers of secondiclass lazd
reclamation roads is underway, the contract being held by the MEMOS Company*
a joint Dutch.lranian fire
5. Central of shifting seed dunes. Surveys are being made.
6. Protection dikes, Surveys are being made.
7. Reconditioning of the Azar canal, A field survey is being carried out,
In the course of carrying out come these projects, Italconsult has been
eollecting considerable information about the flow of water entering Sistan, the
land currently Irrigated, the land Web might be irrigated if an adequate supply
Of water could be ensured, the water requirements of the soil of various ports of
eistan in order to prodrave the best yield, and other related, objects, Before the
4ind or 1960 Italconsult hopes to present its recommendations to the Plan Organ-
ization. While Italconeult's purpose is not, to prepare a ceee for Iran vie.a.avie
Afghanistan in the rialmand dispute, it is probable that Italomneult's report will
thclude an estimate of the flow or Efoiound water necessary to alow the beet develop-
of Siaten. Actually Italcameult may propose several alternative development
program booed an differing mbar flows Obtainable from Afghanistan, Including one
proms based on the asswption that no agreement with Afghanistan is reached.
For intbrmation on actual voter flow ItalcaamiTtiumtheen largely dependent
oe data itrniehed by the Staten Departemmt of Agriculture and Irrigation. Analysis
of them data has made it clear that some inaocureey existe; however* Italconeult
apparently believes that the Iranian data gives a faitl:y true overall picture,
Iranian measurememts of water flow are made am the Sistan River at * point below
the Soh:* dam, Virtually all the Tkilmand water entering Sistan comes in via the
Aston River. At scam time in the past the Porten River, uhleh farms the boundary
between Afghanistan and Iran for some distance after thelkalmand divides at the
border Into the Staten and Perim Rivers, entered Iran further north than the Steen
River* thus constituting a second source of Helmand water entering Iran. Ramer,
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a change in the course of the Farina probably calmed Iv iiftng ?and dunes has cut
Iran off fren This source of Helmand mter. Thus mcsu aoni c of utter flow on
the Staten Fiver snould indicate closely emu the ant Tiolnond runoff readying
Iran.
Um, Iranian neasurenenfs on the Staten P.ivor r, ?Inv pre': as far as 1942-43
testify that the tralitional average annual flow her be somewhere in the neigh-
berhood of 100 cubic meters per second. During the Lr,iian year 1337 (larch as
1958-TAIrell 24 1959) The average now is said to have brut CIC cubic meters
per second, still far more than neeessery to meet c1ljf Staten's irrigation needs.
Ae mentioned earlier, however, during the past wintee:he flow was very much below
averages particularly for a season then the flow is nciaally at its highest.
t.
Italconsult has also made some river flow meamri4ents of its own which,
while not frequent enouph to constitute a reliable re,;ond? have been useful in
Verifying The Iranian data. For example, Italconsultfound that in rebrureys 1960
the flow on the Sistan River below Itohak was, as Ira,* data showed, only 16
table meters per second. At the sine time Ita1conm0 measured the float on the
Pastan River there it forma The international boundecky, finding it to be 39 able
Meters per second. (Measurement of the Parian's floe, is not undertaken mg:Amity
or openly since it involve? crossing to the Afghan Wide of the river, and there
is no agreement with the Afghani) pencitting such dat;l; collection. Italocasult has
telt justified in maldng such measurements owasionaily without Arden knowladge
since the data thus acquired is necessary in commotion with its study?)
This information is of interest in that it aeons to ohm that, at least at
this time of low flow, most of the 71elmond runoff ti the Delta was not reaching
Iron. To the 16 cubic meters per second an the Siam River below the ICchak den
can be added the flow into the /tsar canal just above the dam, about 2 kilometers
indide Iran; at the time of the above reasuremente this wrs found to be 3 cubic
meters per second. Uwe it would appear that Iran was receiving altogether about
one-third of the TIelmred runoff reaching the border, The remainder flowing along
the border and thence back into Afghanistan; this despite the fact that Afghanistan's
needs in This region (Chakhanaur) are tech less than Those of Iranian Siston.
(According to the Rancid river Delta Comdanion Report, pf 12), &tette in 1950
rewired almost four tines as much water as Chaithansur.,)
It is possible that operation of the Kohak (!liankangi, .) dam on the Aston River
two kilometer? inside Iran from the point of bifurcation of the TTelmand into the
Staten and Parisi rivers has played a port in increasing the water flow in the
Parlez relative to that in the new river. The Delta Ccemisel on panted out
that this dam could be used to divert an appropriate share of voter into the ?mien.
khat vey have happened is that it has diverted so much water into the Porten as to
cause a lowering of the Parian's bed, Thus leering too small a share of water for
the Staten river at times of low flow. In may ease Italcansult engineers believe
this does usefulness to Iran is quite limited. It is so close to the border that
at time of high flow closing it rarely diverts the water into the Parton river
and thus asmy from Iran, rather than storing the water inside /ran for later use.
The dam does ate it possible to divert some water into the Azar canal, bit This
canal is too mall to take off any large auantity of writer.
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It is not yot clear what propose's Italconault will make to the Plan Oraan-
ization far furthse irrigation developuent in Staten. Wilmer Piro suggested
that one possibility would be enlargement of the Azar canal. Te also mentioned
That the most deoireble lacy of dividing the lalmand urters between Iran and Afghan-
istan would be kr means of a jointly.operyted diversion dam at the point of bi-
furcation of the Helmand into the Sistan and Parien rivera. It woad be a simple
natter to divide the waters there in any desired ratio* Re thought the ratio
should be four parts to Iran for every one part to Afghanistan, apparentlyhasing
this division on the Delta Commissiods findings pa to the requirements (teach side
(Delta Commission Report, p4 120).
Italconsult engineers state that their analysis is not yet far enough advanced
to perat them to estimate the average annual flow of water required in Sistan.
3everthe1ess it seems certain that their estimate vill be considerably bhp's the
Afghan offer of 22 (or 26) cabin meters per second. Engineer Piro said he had
heard that Senator (and retired Lieutenant General) Amsnoilah JAHADBANI wes proposing
that the Iranian Government agree to a figure of 25 cubic meters per second* 1z4
Piro thowet this would be much too Iowan amount to met Iran's needs.
COUSULATE CCIMITS cii WASEEI AppoMiloarain
Analyzing the information reported above in the light of that is already known
about the Helmmmlitiver Delta, it is possible to stdce certain Observations which
beer on the question of apportionment of the Tiolammd veers between Afghanistan
and Iran. While information avallsilla to the Constlatc? particularly on conditions
in Afghanistan *doh affect the lowmr Helmand flow, is not complete, it is believed
that the following tentative conclusions are justified:
1. In met years, at levet* the total annuel Relmand runoff is sufficient to
satisfy all the present and foreseeable future irrigation requirements of bath
Afghanistan and Iran in the river basin and delta. This was the judgment of the
Delta Commission (p. 113 of their report) and also of the Tudor Engineering Company
which prepared, a report in 1956 for I.C.A. on the Development of the Helmami Valley,
Afghanistan (pp. 21.22 of the ludar Report). If this conclusion is tenable then
the questions of regulations use and apportionment of the wrter are technical ones
which should be decided by technical experts.
2. The total annual Mamma runoff reaching Sistan in past years, even since
the Afghan works on the upper 361mand ha'13 been in operation, hrs been more than
sufficient for Iranian irrigation needs. The awarage annual flow into Sister:
appears to htla3 been in the neighborhood of 80 to 100 cable meters per timpani,
far above not only the Delta Commission's estimate of Iranian Staten's needs but
also the highest Iranian demands. Even if a season like the poet winter, uten
water flow was *normally low, be imcluded in coeputed a yearly averaae, it is
probable that the total runoff for the year would be sufficient far Staten's
requirments.
3. She upstream irrigrtion works in Afghanistan, even if they do not reduce
the total Tkilmand runoff retching 'the Delta to an mount too small to satisfy
Siatealrneeds, are appareatly capable of affecting the seasonal flaw to such an
extemt as to be detrimental to agriculture in Staten. This sitatement can be made
only tentativAy since little Information is available to the Consulate on conditions
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in Ate:Gaston and the operation of the Afghan =irks. Judging by the knots capacity
of the Kajakai Beservtdr as reported in the Tudor Report, however, it multi aprear
that the Kajakai dem could be operated in such a say es to roduce the flow Into
the Delta below the amount necesserj at seasons whoa the requirements them are
greatest. bether or not the dam has been so operrted is not Isom to the Consulate.
layovers it is aorta in that during the pest minter the flow into Iranian Sistan
was well below the normal requirements at that season, end it is the opinion of
an Italconsult engineer that the floe could only have been reduced so low by being
blocked by men-ciade obstacles.
14. The Kohak (Miankangi) dam on the Sister river just inside Iran from; the
bcrcbar has not been of great benefit to iron because its use has forced water to
back up into the Parton river and thus escape from Iranian hands. Moreover, it
may have contributed to lowering the bed of the Porten river so that at time of
los flow the Sistan river does not bring into Iran its necessary shade of the
Ikamend waters, Sven Afghans complain about this dem saying it has caused flooding
in Afghan Chakhaneur. (See Kabul Despatch No. 78 of den,
10, 19590
S. Basing their VIEWS on Italconsatts studies, the Iranians wiU retbably
continue to want considerably sore water than the average annual flew of 22.26
cubic meters of by Afghanistan. At least as important as the average ennual
flow in any agreement satisfactory to Iran would be proper seasonal distribution
of the flow.
PROMO'S or SOlglial
The Consulate is not competent, of course to suggest possible solutions
of the 'Mauled waters problem. Ikmasver, in the =urea of preparing the present
report caretain points have came to the Consulate's attention yhich ;dent have a
bearing on The Trospects for eventual resolutien of the problem,.
In The first pleas, it is clear that early solution of this problem is of
vital importance to Iron for a number of reasons. FM one thing Iranians Amer
that Sistan's water needs may in the future be even lees vein met Than at present
as develq:nent on the Afghan aide continues. Particularly they fear that the
Afghani; may undertake some new project, such as a dan an the layer rielmand thich
will drastically reduce the flow of water into Sietan if not out it off al
Moreover, Iran is interested in more than simply maintaining present conditions
in Staten. As evidenced by the engagement of italconellt, the Iranian Oovarnmsnt
is seriously Interested in The possibility of developing the region. rlo realistic
dwelt:trent progrein can be undertaken in Slatan unless it is knots how =NM Thalami
water the area can expect to remeive in future years.
Political consideralices also motivate Iran to seek a solution to this problem.
2341 extant of Soviet influence in Afghanistan is a cause of genuine fear to Iranians,
who see themselves flanked on the east as well as on the north by a hostile, or
potentially hostile, power, improvement of Iranian relations with Afghanistan
might contribute to relaxing the closeness of the Afghan-Soviet relationship.
Solution of The %bend waters problem yould be a major and probably essential
step in improving Afghan-lranian relations.
Afghanistan, being the upper riparian and in possession of the entire Helmand
COHFIDS/IIAL
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From Tleehod
except for a portion of its delta, presumably libels much less than Iran the need
for arriving at agreement on the Inoue. Under these circumetences it vapid be
natural that Iran should be the party tooake the greatest concessions. In Iranian
eyes this ha been the case in the negotiations so fez conducted. While Afghan?
istan has only budged slightly from its original offer of an average annual flow
of 22 cubic meters per second (up to 26), Iran has come down in its demands Prom
57 to 35 cubic meters per second. In view of the fact that the traditianal annual
flow into Iran has been far grerter (appareatiy In the neighborhood of 80.100
cubic meters per second in recent years, on the average), and considering Iran's
desire to develop Staten, Iranian willingness to accept an annual average flow of
as little as 35 WNW meters per second must seem to Iranians a most generous
ConeWaian. Certainly it was the reporting officer's impression during his recent
visit to S-Dstm that Irani= officials sincerely believe Sistan really needs sore
water than the.
The question nos:tracing 'Iran is %tether to reduce her demands still farther
or to mak another taw of resolving the issue, An ?Metal of the Iranian Foreign
Ministry recently suggested bringing the subject before some international organ..
isation. If both countries would agree to this procedure, it might Indeed offer
some hope of breaking the prevent impasse in a goy nore satisfactory to iron than
acceptant* of the present Afghan offer. ?king use of data which has become
available since the Delta Commission's study, particularly that collected by
Italconault, Iran might be able to chow that Melton, if it is to be developed
according to its potential, will require a greater flow of water than that computed
by the Delta Commission in 1950 (upon which the Afghan offer of 22 cubic meters
per second is based). At the same time it night be possible to show, using the
data contained in the Tudor Report and other data vihish ney have been subsequently
collected in Afghanistan, that even after all Afghan weft are met ertintlateat
Reasend runoff remains to tarot& Sistan with all the water it requires,
If solution continues to be sought through direct negotiation between the two
countries, then it seems inevitable that Iron met he the next approach with
reduceddheands, Distasteful as this rior be to the Iranians, they might still
consider it worth trying in order to get Afghenisten to agree to ferther studies
vhich might lead to SLUMS comprehensive aoreemest alloying Iranian fears and
permitting realistic Sistaa development. The Iranian approach sight be along the
following unset
1. Both aountries naturally at* tome*. the best possible use of their
natural resources to benefit their peoples* Iran appreciates Afghanistan's efforts
to harneas the waters of the Ranged for such beneficial purposes, and le sure that
Afghanistan reciprocally appreciates the Iranian desire to develop the region of
Staten, shift has always boon depenlent upon Relmend, water for irrigation,
2* C* the basis of the limited data now available to her, Iran is inclined
to believe that the total Helmand runoff, at least In normal years, is sufficient
to meet the present and anticipated future needs of those parts of both countries
which can be served by Mese voters. Therefore /ran believes that the question
of proper distribution and regulation of the Tfelsamd flow is a technical matter
vhich Should be determined by qualified tedinical expert*.
3. /ran is quite willing to accept the report of the iTelrxind River Delta
commnain
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Deep. Uo. 34 rEPIDENTIAL
Prom tieslued
Commission as a basic document Contain-7ng data t1th should be considered in
determining proper regulation ahd distribution of the Uelmand waters. riouever,
as the Delta Comic-mien itself pointed out (p. 123 of their Report), the technical
infOrmation available at the title of the Commis/fairies study .woe not sufficient to
allow the irradiate definition df a workable emoorEnto During the ten years sinav
theDdlta Gammiszion studied the subject much new data ha become available on the
actual flow of water, the water requirements of both countries, and the operation
of works on both sides (particularly the Afghan side) vhich were only under con-
struction or contemplated at the time of the Commission's study.
44 Iran therefore proroses that a. technical study now be making
use of the. Delta :Commission: Report plus the additional data thieh has since becone
available az tell as any other pertinent data which may be collected in the course
of the propmed teahnical study. :The body vvich mold make the study could be
Chosen as jointly aereed upon by tile two countries. It nighty for example, consist
of one Afghan, one Imam, and or6 impartial specialist (repreeenting,', for example
the World rank). Or it might be the joint Washington committee, reactivated for
the purpose!. in this ease, however* it would be nocesarry to Appoint a sdbcommittee
tamale investigations in the field. Still mother possibility would be an impartia1.
body including repreeentativee of Whither side. Nhatever right be AB compaction,
this technical body would study and report upon the relive:Ian&
(a) The total Helmand runoff.:
(b) The preeent and anticipated.future needs in both Afghanistan and Iran
which could be met by Helmand waters.
(c) The best means of contrclling and regulating
The most effective myths requirenente of each side.
(d) Recammendations as to any additional works vhich might be constructed
either individually or jahntly co as to hake it possible to regulate and distribute
the HelmandPeatere properly, in accordeftee with (c).
S. /ran believes a technical study such as that suggested-above absolutely-
necessary before any lasting ameament cah be reached. However, should Afghanistan
be unwilling to participate in such a joint study unless an interim accord is first
reaChed, Iran, in order to show her good faith and, because of her desire to reach
agreement so that a major development program far Sietan can be undertaken, would
be willing to conclude an interim agreement (e.g., for three years) on any reason-
able basis. Such an interim agreement mold not of course, prejudice the position
of either side in reaching a lasting ameement based an further technical study.
In this connection Iran would point out that the Delta Commissioramade no
reccmcendation as to the flow of water Iran should receive either in an intim
or In a final egreaeaVt. The Commission did estimate thel present water requiremen
of Iraniam. Sietan a? well es of Afghan Chakhansur, finding that the former area
required an average annual flow of 22 cubic- meters per second ahile the latter
required only 6 cubic meters per second, All available evidence, incluang that
asseidAed by the Delta Commission, indicates that the averece annual flow into the
Delta has always been far greater than 28 cubic peers per second, the total of
the requirements estimated by the gamaission. This would appear to be the case
cornavira,
ow so as to meet in
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seen today, with the Afghan vorks on the upper nelmand in operation. Thus there
is no moon to suppobe the Ccanisnion intended these estimate? to be used as the
basis of an ornament according Iran an average annual floe of only 22 cubic
meters per second; it mipht equally well be argued that the eetimates should be
used as the teals of an agreement providing Iran vith about four.fiftns of all the
Helmand water machine the Delta*
Iran believes that further study such as that proposed above will establish
that 61st:tree meter requirements are greater than 22 cubic mottoes per second, es-
pecially if the region is to be denieloped as Iran desires* Iran further believes
That additional study will in all probability show that the runoff of the Heloot
River is sufficient to provide Iran with considarobly more than 22 ethic meters
per second even artesr all present and future Afghan requirements are met*
Ueverthslees# if Afghanistan requires that an interim agreement he reached
before fortisr technical stair is utwierteicen Iran is ready to consider pympethet-
ically Afghanistan's suguestions regarding the terms of such an agreement.
In the reporting officer's opinion, Iran would gain far more by getting
Afghanistan to wee to further technical study than she mad lane by agreeing
to accept temorarily an average aannal flow of even as little as 22 cubic meters
per second. Actually it is doubtful whether the Afghans could hold The flow this
los even if they wished to. If an interim agreement were reached at the level of
22 (or some higher figure such as 26), it would be important that the agreement
include previsions no to monthly distribution in accordion with the findings of
the Delta Commission (p0 95 of their report). In this say Biotin would be assured
of receiving a flow of over 60 cubic meters per second during thew:Mho of greatest
need, this obviating conditions such as prevelledttring the pest winter. Probably
in certain other months the flow would be much greater than neceesary, so that
the averrge annual flow would be consideretUabove 22 cubic meters per second*
Whether the United States could or should play a mile in brbedisr Iron and
Afghanistan closer to an understanding on this teem is a question beyond the
competence of this poet to answer. Perhaps the United States could suggest to the
Iranian Iloveramant the desirability of trying on approadh along the lines described
above at an eppropriate time (soft as during in Minister EQPAL'S visit to Kabul).
tt feasible, the Afgham Government might also be eamraged to consider smatiort.
locally such am approadh an the part of Iran* Greater stimulue toward reaching
wrement night result if the U.S. Government lore able to announce to both sides
its villingnees to give sympathetic consideration to assisting in the construction
of sew %Arks which, as the result of further technical study, the two countries
agreed sem incessary or desirable in order to rogarte and distribute the Helmand
waters for the greatest benefit of both countries.
.1,has
American Consul
Copies sent Ameitxunies Tehran, Kabul Aracauratlates Isfahan* Khorramshahr* Tabriz
t
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