NEWSPAPER COLUMN ON MIG-23 AIRCRAFT IN CUBA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP06T01849R000100040038-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 17, 2012
• Sequence Number: 38
• Publication Date: November 15, 1978
• Content Type: CABLE

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/16: CIA-RDP06T01849R000100040038-0
STAT
4
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FRP: , , ,4, ,b, ,
STATE
78 1567591
PAGE 001
TOR: 1517062 NOV 78
NC 1567591
00 RUEAIIB
ZNR UUUUU ZOC STATE ZZH
TOO RUEHMO RUEHUB.
DE RUEHC 09866 3191643
ZNR UUUUU ZZM
0 151626Z NOV 78
FM SECBTATE WASHDC
TO RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW IMMEDIATE 0000
INFO RUEHUB/USINT HAVANA IMMEDIATE 0000
ST
iWft*S STATE 289866
E.0, 11652; N/A
TAGS: PEPR, UR, US, CU
SUBJECT: NEWSPAPER COLUMN ON MIG?23 AIRCRAFT IN CUBA
TREATY
. FOLLOWING'IS TEXT OF COLUMN BY EVANS AND NOVAK
WHICH APPEARED IN WASHINGTON POST ON NOVEMBER 15.
BEGIN TEXT.
THE SOVIET UNION_.IS SURREPTITIOUSLY ARMING CUBA WITH
M1G23 AIRCRAFT OF THE TYPE NOW DEPLOYED IN EUROPE+?FOR
NUCLEAR ATTACK AGAINST NATO? A DEVELOPMENT CASTING'A
LONG SHADOW ON PRESIDENT CARTER'S HOPE FOR SENAT.E
RATIFICATION NEXT YEAR OF A STRATEGIC ARMS LIMITATION
IN A TOP-SECRET MEMORANDUM INFORMING PRESIDENT CARTER
OF THIS ON OCT, 23, DEFENSE SECRETARY HAROLD BROWN
SPECIFICALLY RAISED THE QUESTION WHETHER SUPPLYING.CUBA
WITH HIGH-PERFORMANCE MIS23 VIOLATES THE " UNDERSTANDINGS'.
BETWEEN PRESIDENT KENNEDY AND THE KREMLIN THAT ENDED
THE CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS IN OCTOBER 1962.- THOSE
UNDERSTANDINGS FORCED MOSCOW TO REMOVE BALLISTIC MISSILES
AND OTHER NUCLEAR-ARMED WEAPONS FROM CUBA, INCLUDING THE
BADGER BOMBER,
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/16: CIA-RDP06T01849R000100040038-0
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/16: CIA-RDP06T01849R000100040038-0
ADMIN INTERNAL USE ONLN
STATE
78 1567591 PAGE 002
TOR& 151706Z NOV 78
NC 1567591
ACCORDING TO U.S. INTELLIGENCE FINDINGS ON WHICH BROWN
BASED HIS MEMORANDUM TO THE PRESIDENT, THE CUBA-BASED
MIG23 HAS THE CONFIGURATION OF THE NUCLEAR-ATTACK, AIRCRAFT
THAT MAKES UP THE WARSAW PACT'S MOST ADVANCED NUCLEAR-
DELIVERY TACTICAL STRIKE FORCE.
THERE WAS NO SUGGESTION IN BROWN'S MEMORANDUM TO CARTER
THAT THE CUBA-BASED MIG238--BELIEVED NOW TO NUMBER SOME'
12 TO 15 AIRCRAFT--HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN FITTED OR "WIRED,"
IN THE TECHNICAL PHRASE, FOR CARRYING A NUCLEAR PAYLOAD,
WHAT CAN BE SAID IS THAT THE MIG23 NOW IN CUBA .
APPEARS TO BE THE SAME MODEL D OR F LONG OBSERVED IN
THE WARSAW PACT'S NUCLEAR-DELIVERY TRAINING EXERCISES:
AN ATTACK, NOT AN AIR-DEFENSE, AIRCRAFT.
TOP CARTER ADMINISTRATION OFFICIALS, NOT CONCEALING
C THEIR SHOCK AT DISCOVERING THE MIG23 WITH ITS ONE-WAY
1.200-MILE RANGE BASED 90 MILES OFF THE FLORIDA COAST,
ARE NOW HOTLY DEBATING WHAT TO DOAND SAY ABOUT IT.
C. AS BROWN WARNED CARTER IN HIS MEMO, THE TOTALLY
UNEXPECTED SOVIET.MOVE PRESENTS THE PRESIDENT WITH A
PROBLEM OF "HIGH POLITICAL- SENSITIVITY."
C TO MAKE THE FACT PUBLIC POSES THIS UNPLEASANT CHOICES
DEMAND THAT MOSCOW IMMEDIATELY REMOVE ALL MIG233, AS-THE
U.S. SUCCESSFULLY DEMANDED OF THE SOVIET MISSILES:. .
AND BADGER BOMBERS IN 1962, WHEN THE STRATEGIC BALANCE
WAS OVERWHELMINGLY:IN WASHINGTON'S FAVOR, OR TRY TO
EXPLAIN IT AWAY AS A MERE UPGRADING OR MODERNIZATION OF
CUBA'S AIR FORCE, WHOSE MIG21S ARE NOW LARGELY IN
THE SERVICE OF CUBA'S AFRICAN ADVENTURES.
IF CARTER CHOSE THE FIRST OPTION, ODDS ARE PROHIBITIVE
THAT MOSCOW WOULD TELL HIM TO GD JUMP IN THE.LAKEb
DIPLOMATICALLY OR NOT, AND-PROBABLY-MAKE IT STICK;... THAT
WOULD BRING AN INSTANT CRISIS IN DETENTE AND PUT THE NEW
SALT AGREEMENT IN JEOPARDY,
BUT TO ACCEPT THE*PRESENCE OF THE MIG23 IN CUBA,
KNOWING ITS APPARENT CAPABILITY FOR BEING FITTED FOR
ADMIN INTERNAL-USE ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/16: CIA-RDP06T01849R000100040038-0
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/16: CIA-RDP06T01849R000100040038-0
ADMIN INTERNAL USE ONLY
78 1567591 PAGE 003 NC 15e7591
.TORS_151706Z NOV 78
NUCLEAR?DELIVERY, WOULD VIOLATE THE DOCTRINE LAID
DOWN BY JOHN F. KENNEDY DURING THE CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS
AND BY THE NIXON-KISSINGER STRATEGISTS IN 1970.
IN THAT YEAR, RICHARD NIXON AND HIS THEN?NATIONAL
C' SECURITY ADVISER HENRY KISSINGER DELIVERED WHAT AMOUNTED
TO AN ULTIMATUM AGAINST SOVIET-CUBAN CONSTRUCTION OF
SUBMARINE PENS AT CIENFUEGOS CAPABLE OF SERVICING
NUCLEAR-MISSILE SUBMARINES. THAT ULTIMATUM WAS BASED
SQUARELY ON THE KENNEDY DOCTRINES ANY NUCLEAR-CAPABLE
( WEAPON--WHETHER IT WAS ACTUALLY FITTED WITH NUCLEAR
ARMAMENTS OR NOT??WAS IPSO FACTO INTOLERABLE IN FIDEL
CASTRO'S CUBA, THE SUBMARINE PENS WERE NOT BUILT..
IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT EVEN A SIGNED CUBAN "PLEDGE" THAT
ITS NEW MIG23S WOULD NEVER BE EQUIPPED FOR NUCLEAR
DELIVERY WOULD DO MUCH TO SOLVE CARTER'S POLITICAL.
PROBLEM IN THE SENATE WHEN THE NEW SALT.AGREEMENT COMES
UP FOR DEBATE NEXT YEAR, WITH THE SOUTHERN PART OF`THE:
UNITED STATES EXPOSED TO ATTACK WITHIN THE MI623'.S NON,
STOP. 1.200-MILE-RANGE, THE SALT DEBATE MIGHT WELLi TURN
INTO AN ANTI-SOVIET FREE-FOR-ALL,.
C,
INDEED, THE SHREWDEST ANALYSTS HERE ARE HARD PUT TO
EXPLAIN THE SURREPTITIOUS DEPLOYMENT OF~THE M1G23 IN
TERMS OTHER THAN SOVIET MUSCLE-FLEXING, MIXED WITH
DETERRENCE, IT WOULD SEEM TO PROVIDE MOSCOW WITH.
A POWERFUL OPTION TO BE BRANDISHED WHEN AND IF NECESSARY
AS A COUNTER TO AMERICAN POLICY ANYWHERE IN THE-WORLD
CONSIDERED HOSTILE:BY THE SOVIET UNION.
( U.S. DEFENSE OFFICIALS SAY THAT THE MI923 MODEL=NOW IN
CUBA HAS NEVER BEFORE BEEN DELIVERED TO A SOVIET ALLY.
AFTER THE ARAB-ISRAELI WAR IN OCTOBER 1973, SYRIA
RECEIVED THE AIR-DEFENSE VERSION OF THE M1623??
ESSENTIALLY A FIGHTER PLANE NOT EQUIPPED FOR TACTICAL
STRIKES AGAINST GROUND TARGETS. THE DIFFERENCE IS
SIMILAR TO THAT BETWEEN THE U.S. F4 AND THE'FSE:
THE F4 HAS BEEN DENIED TO TAIWAN BECAUSE IT COULD ATTACK
THE CHINESE MAINLAND; THE,FSE, A PLANE DESIGNED PURELY
ADMIN INTERNAL USE ONLN
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/16: CIA-RDP06T01849R000100040038-0
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/16: CIA-RDP06T01849R000100040038-0
ADMIN INTERNAL USE ONLfY
78 1567591 PACE 004 -
.-TORS 151706Z NOV 78.
NC 1567591
FOR DEFENSE, IS BEING SUPPLIED INSTEAD.
THAT THE SOVIETS HAVE CHOSEN THIS CRITICAL MOMENT IN
OFF-AGAIN, ON-AGAIN DETENTE TO THREATEN THE UNITED
STATES IN ITS OWN BACK YARD IS A VICIOUS IRONY FOR
JIMMY CARTER. UNLESS HE CAN CONJURE UP A JUSTIFIABLE
EXPLANATION FOR THE MIG23S WHERE NONE APPEARS TODAY,
HIS HOPES FOR SALT II MAY TURN TO DUST..
END TEXT. VANCE
END OF MESSAGE ADMIN INTERNAL USE ONL*
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/16: CIA-RDP06T01849R000100040038-0