LEBANESE SITUATION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP06T00412R000707380020-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 28, 2013
• Sequence Number: 20
• Publication Date: September 20, 1988
• Content Type: REPORT

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/10/28: CIA-RDP06T00412R000707380020-4
SUBJECT: Lebanese Situation
Distribution:
10 - DCI
1 - DDI
1 - ADDI
1 - NIO/NESA
1 - D/NESA
1- DD/NESA
(1-C/NES/
1 - C/NESA/AI/L
1 - NESA/AI/L/ht
1- Chrono
DI/NESA/AI/L
(20 Sep 88)
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/10/28: CIA-RDP06T00412R000707380020-4
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/10/28: CIA-RDP06T00412R000707380020-4
Talking Points for the DCI
21 September 1988
Lebanese Situation
Lebanon's Christians have rejected the Syrian and US backed presidential candidate
Mikhail Daher, increasing the risk of a violent crisis. We believe it is unlikely that the
Lebanese will be able to elect a new President on Thursday. Even if the election is held and a
grimo-Syrian like Daher is elected, hard-line Christians almost certainly would try to assassinate
-- The Christians will pull out all the stops to prevent Parliament from electing
Daher on 22 September, the day before Gemayel's term of office expires. If
there is no election, President Gemayel almost certainly will then appoint a
transition government headed by Christians.
-- Syria will not recognize a Gemayel-appointed regime but will recognize the
current cabinet as the legitimate authority, leaving Lebanon with two rival
governments.
-- At Syrian urging, Muslim Army brigades appear to be readying for a
confrontation with the Christians.
-- Well-armed Christian Army units and militias are preparing for clashes with the
Muslims.
Implications for US Interests
Several US interests are at risk if the crisis deteriorates into partition or violence.
-- First, the Christians see themselves as increasingly isolated, and their search for
external assistance could expand the problem. Christian hopes of Iraqi and
Israeli support?however exaggerated?will stiffen their opposition to Syria.
-- Iraq has been providing financial and military support to the Christians over the
past few months. Although we believe arms deliveries have been limited
If fighting breaks out, US officials in Beirut will be at serious risk. Syrian and pro-
Syrian forces will shell the Christian enclave where our Embassy is located. In addition, hard-
Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/10/28: CIA-RDP06T00412R000707380020-4
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/10/28: CIA-RDP06T00412R000707380020-4
line Christians who privately condemn the US for "selling out" to Syria on Daher's candidacy
could target the Embassy or its personnel.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/10/28: CIA-RDP06T00412R000707380020-4