NEAR EAST AND SOUTH ASIA REVIEW

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP05S02029R000300860002-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 31, 2012
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: December 5, 1986
• Content Type: REPORT

Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 :CIA-RDP05S02029R000300860002-8
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Directorate of
Near East and
South Asia Review
Supplement
5 December 1986
NE.SA NF,.SAR Rh-0~7C'
eceD tuber 1486
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Near East and
South Asia Review
Soviet and Afghan forces attempted throughout September to
secure Kabul from rocket attacks and to counter insurgent successes
against aircraft through the use of Stinger surface-to-air missiles.
Strong insurgent activity in the east probably led to Kabul's
announcement of a plan to relocate up to 300,000 Afghans to the
southwest.
Soviet and Afghan combat activity in October centered on
supporting the safe withdrawal of six Soviet regiments from
Afghanistan. Insurgent rocket strikes on Kabul continued
intermittently despite numerous counterinsurgent operations in the
environs of the city.
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Some articles are preliminary views of a subject or speculative, but the contents
normally will be coordinated as appropriate with other offices within CIA.
Occasionally an article will represent the views o a sin le anal st ? these items
will be designated as noncoordinated views. 25X1
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Near East and
South Asia Review
Afghanistan in September
Soviet and Afghan forces attempted throughout
September to secure Kabul from rocket attacks.
Soviet concerns about security in the capital prompted
a month-long operation in Paghman, including brutal
assaults against the civilian population there. A "get-
tough" policy against civilians was also suggested by
the regime's announcement in early September of a
plan to relocate some 30,000 Afghan families from
the strategic eastern provinces-where they form a
support base for the insurgents-to sparsely inhabited
provinces in the southwest.
Soviet concern over aircraft losses was almost
certainly heightened by the first insurgent successes-
two confirmed aircraft downings-with Stinger
surface-to-air missiles.
Soviets recently modified their SU-17s to counter the
growing missile threat. Insurgent effectiveness with
antiaircraft weapons will raise the cost of the war for
Moscow and is already having an adverse effect on
morale in the Afghan Air Force.
Trying To Secure the Kabul Area
Efforts to secure the Kabul area from insurgent
attacks in preparation for the partial Soviet
withdrawal dominated Soviet military operations
during the month of Sepember. A major Soviet-
Afghan offensive was initiated on 4 September in the
Paghman area with an artillery bombardment. The
next day, SU-25 ground attack aircraft conducted
strikes in the foothills north of Paghman, according to
the US Embassy in Kabul. Subsequently, Soviet
heliborne assaults were conducted in the area. During
the second week of September the offensive shifted to
the area north of Kabul but returned to Paghman by
the third week. Fighting, reported to be heavy,
continued through the month's end.
The tenacity of the resistance in the Paghman area-
with the consequent implications for security in
Kabul-has been troublesome for the regime. US
Embassy sources indicate that the Soviets and
Afghans, seeking to weaken support for the
insurgents, conducted a "brutal" campaign against
civilian targets during these operations.
An engagement between Soviet and insurgent forces
in early September near Jalalabad resulted in heavy
casualties on both sides,
a Soviet force from
a a a a was engage y t e insurgents 30
kilometers southeast of the town in fighting that
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lasted over a week. According to the US Embassy in
Kabul, on 9 September a flight of 20 MI-8 and MI-24
helicopters departed Kabul heading east toward
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Impact of Greater Insurgent Antiaircraft Capability
The increasing effectiveness of the insurgents in using
surface-to-air missiles, especially Stingers, has forced
changes in Soviet and Afghan air tactics. The first
insurgent successes with the Stinger missile occurred
on 25 September when the insurgents shot down two
helicopters and damaged a third near Jalalabad,
These revetments provide protection for
Afghan aircraft against blast damage from rockets
and sabotage, such as the incident at Shindand in
June 1985.
Preparations for the Withdrawal of Soviet Troops
During September the Soviets continued preparations
for the announced withdrawal of Soviet troops.
two additional tank
by these missiles have lowered the morale of Afghan
fighter pilots. Some have asked for tran
a
transport units or ground assignments
complained that the Afghan military is
enough to counter the insurgent threat.
In response to the increased threat to a
the Soviets probably began to employ s
sfers to
nd have
not doing
it operations,
tandard
countermeasures to keep losses down, including
modified flight profiles, using at least four aircraft on
attack missions, and increased application of onboard
countermissile systems such as infrared jammers and
flares. If air losses continue to rise, the Soviets are
likely to increase efforts to intimidate Pakistan by
stepping up air violations-already at record levels-
and increasing shallow cross-border strikes by Afghan
and possibly Soviet aircraft. In addition, they may
resort to more sabotage and subversion along the
border.
The Soviets have already modified the SU-17 in a
continuing effort to upgrade its capability to counter
the threat of man-portable missiles such as the SA-7
and the Stinger. On 26 September, Soviet SU-17
fighter bombers, with modified chaff/flare dispensers,
were identified for the first time in Afghanistan,
These chaff/flare
dispensers have been used on MIG-23s in
Afghanistan for over a year.
Revetments for Afghan Aircraft
The increasing threat to Afghan aircraft-from
insurgent rocket attacks or internal sabotage-almost
certainly prompted the construction of earthen
revetments at Afghanistan's major airfields.
battalions (40 tanks) from the USSR arrived at the
24th Guards Tank Regiment, Shindand, between 8
Regime Plans Population Relocation
Strong insurgent activity in the eastern section of the
country, sustained by the support of the local
population, probably led to Kabul's announcement in
early September of a plan to relocate 30,000 Afghan
families-some 300,000 people-from Konar,
Laghman, and Paktia Provinces to the less populated
western provinces of Nimruz, Helmand, and Farah.
The government clearly sees a military advantage in
depopulating the area but claims that the program is
a result of overpopulation
harsh Soviet and regime retaliation against
civilians aiding the insurgents has forced many
Afghans to flee to Pakistan.
The relocation program has not been implemented. It
would probably have to be carried out by force
because of strong tribal attachments to traditional
landholdings. The use of coercion would led to more
refugee flight.
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Top Secret
Afghanistan in October
Soviet and Afghan combat activity in October
centered on supporting the safe withdrawal of six
Soviet regiments from Afghanistan. Insurgent rocket
strikes on Kabul continued intermittently despite
numerous counterinsurgent operations in the environs
of the city. In response to resistance activity and to
preempt insurgent resupply efforts, Soviet and
Afghan forces conducted operations in Paktia,
Nangarhar, and Konarha Provinces. A combined
Soviet-Afghan offensive was also under way near
Qandahar by month's end.
Soviet Sham Withdrawal Completed
During October, the Soviets withdrew the recently
reinforced tank regiment, two newly formed truck-
and BTR-60/70-equipped motorized rifle regiments,
and three air defense regiments from Afghanistan.
For the purposes of the withdrawal ceremonies-
staged for numerous foreign journalists-both
motorized rifle regiments underwent a hasty
metamorphosis in mid-October. Two battalions of
BTR-60/70 armored personnel carriers from units
normally stationed in Afghanistan replaced the two
truck-equipped motorized rifle battalions in each
regiment at Shindand and Konduz. But those BTR-
60/70s did not depart the country. The two motorized
"regiments" that the Soviets had formed expressly to
be pulled out both reverted to a configuration of two
truck-eauinned battalions for the return to the Soviet
Union,
Continued Insurgent Activity Around Kabul
Resistance forces continued to strike targets in Kabul.
Insurgent rocket attacks hit Soviet installations in
northern Kabul several times during the month,
according to US Embassy sources. Increased security
concerns resulted in unusual flight patterns, reduced
air traffic, and periodic shutdowns at the airport. The
insurgents shot down a Soviet SU-25 ground attack
aircraft in the Kabul area early in the month.
Soviet and Afghan regime forces continued
counterinsurgent operations north, west, and south of
the capital to push guerrilla forces away from the city
and to secure lines of communication. Operations in
the Shomali Plain north of Kabul were characterized
by the US Embassy as especially brutal. Crops and
livestock were destroyed, and residents were kept
from fleeing into Kabul.
the fighting between insurgent forces and
Soviet and Afghan troops in Khowt-e Ashrow, west of
Kabul, resulted in a complete breakdown of civil
authority by early October.
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border regions of Afghanistan.
Counterinsurgency Operations in the East
Soviet and Afghan forces were active in the eastern 25X1
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Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 :CIA-RDP05S02029R000300860002-8
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Soviet and Afghan forces also conducted combat
operations in Nangarhar Province in response to
insurgent activity and to preempt insurgent
stockpiling of supplies for the winter. Elements of the
Soviet 66th Independent Motorized Rifle Brigade at
Jalalabad departed garrison in early October,
US Embassy sources
assert that heavy regime casualties resulted from the
fighting around Jalalabad.
Fighting Intensified in Qandahar
Soviet and Afghan forces launched a major offensive
southeast of Qandahar city late in the month,
probably to inhibit insurgent attacks in the
beleaguered city. Earlier in the month Soviet and
regime forces failed to establish four new security
posts north of the city in the Arghandab Valley in the
face of stiff resistance opposition,
The insurgents shot down one Soviet
and four Afghan aircraft in the area during October.
US Embassy sources say that the continuing combat
has created difficult living conditions in the city, with
virtually no electricity or telephone services and city
water available only two hours per day.
Noncombatants can leave their homes for only a few
hours during the day
the civilian population around Kabul may well prompt
more widespread use of harsh tactics by Soviet and
Afghan forces. Heavy fighting is also likely to
continue along the Pakistani border as Soviet and
Afghan forces attempt to impede the guerrillas' last
major supply caravans before the onset of winter.
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Outlook
Enhancement of the security of the capital is likely to
remain a high priority for the Soviets and the Afghan
regime. The strength of support for the insurgents by
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