SPECULATING ON A POSSIBLE SINO-SOVIET SUMMIT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP04T00990R000300210001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 13, 2012
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 3, 1988
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/13: CIA-RDP04T00990R000300210001-5
ti G 25X1
Central Intelligence Agency
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
03 February 1988
Speculating on a Possible Sino-Soviet Summit
We speculate that improving US-Soviet relations and a desire both
to support Gorbachev and reward recent Soviet flexibility could lead
Beijing to agree to a high-level meeting. By agreeing, Beijing would seek,
to restore lost leverage in Sino-US relations and unnerve Hanoi and New
Delhi. Because a Deng-Gorbachev meeting would cause the greatest
concern in the West, we judge it would be less likely in the near term than.
a meeting of Foreign Ministers, Premiers, or Presidents. Chinese practice
suggest to us that, should a meeting occur, the period between the next
US-Soviet summit and a visit to Beijing by a senior US official is a
particularly likely time.
This memorandum was prepared by China Division, Office of East Asian Analysis.
Information available as of 3 February 1988 was used in its preparation.' Comments and
queries are welcome and may be directed to the Chief, China Division, OEAF_~
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/13: CIA-RDP04T00990R000300210001-5
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/13: CIA-RDP04T0099OR000300210001-5
Responding to Soviet Overtures
precede a summit with Gorbachev.
Soviet General Secretary Gorbachev in the last few months has twice called for a
Sino-Soviet summit meeting, most recently in an 11 January interview published in a
Chinese foreign affairs journal..' As in the past, the Chinese have responded by
reiterating Deng Xiaoping's condition that resolution of the Cambodia problem must
logic of the situation in which Beijing finds itself.
A series of recent developments, however, leads us to speculate that the chance
of a senior level meeting has increased. Our speculation is not based on hard evidence
but rather on our appreciation of China's foreign policy goals, Chinese style, and the
Reasoning That Could Lead to a Summit
believed significantly improved the environment for China's reforms.
At its most basic, Chinese foreign policy seeks a stable, non-confrontational
relationship with the Soviet Union -- especially along the border -- so that Beijing can
concentrate on its reforms and devote maximum resources to economic modernization.
Beijing simultaneously seeks to deepen its relations with Washington partly. because of
the Soviet long-term threat and partly to gain access to US markets and technology
essential to the success of the modernization effort. This suggests that China would be
more receptive to a summit if (1) it concluded that it was losing leverage in the
Sino-Soviet-US strategic triangle or (2) it wanted to encourage Soviet behavior that it
are pushing China toward just such a conclusion
A case can be made that -- from Beijing's perspective -- recent developments
The Strategic Triangle. The most significant development is the improvement
in US-Soviet relations, which has left Beijing pondering the implications for China.
Publicly, China has welcomed the upturn in US-Soviet relations for reducing
international tensions and improving the environment for China's reforms.
The Liaowang interview consisted of answers to three questions posed by the
Chinese weekly in writing and dealing with Sino-US relations and Soviet reforms. It
is the first interview with a Soviet leader to be published in a Chinese journal in more
than two decades. In the interview, Gorbachev said there was an "objective
necessity" for a Sino-Soviet summit at the "highest level" and pointed to similarities
in Soviet and Chinese perspectives on arms control and domestic reform. Gorbachev
called for a summit with Deng last November, during a meeting with Zambian leader
Kaunda.
-2-
SECRET
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/13: CIA-RDP04T0099OR000300210001-5
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/13: CIA-RDP04T0099OR000300210001-5
}
help China get what it wants.
Regional Concerns. In the. last year, Moscow has altered its approach on China's
top regional concerns: Indochina, the Sino-Soviet border, and Afghanistan, the so-called
three obstacles. After telling Beijing for years that it had no role in a Cambodia solution
and that China should discuss its differences with Vietnam directly, Moscow agreed to
discuss the Indochina problem at the 9th round of their political normalization talks.
More significant is the light pressure Moscow has begun to put on Hanoi and Phnom
Penh to negotiate a compromise solution with Sihanouk. We believe the Chinese remain
deeply suspicious of Hanoi and worry that Sihanouk still might negotiate an agreement
they cannot live with, but Beijing is also aware that Moscow has taken a step that may
Gorbachev.
The Soviets have also shown surprising flexibility on the Sino-Soviet border .
issue, and real progress has been made in these negotiations over the last year. The
Soviets have made most of the significant concessions, and although much has to be
worked out, we believe a resolution of this issue is a real possibility in. the next few
years. As with the Cambodia problem, the Chinese attribute the movement to
not threaten`China.
Progress is less evident on Afghanistan, but the Chinese have taken note of
recent Soviet rhetoric. They believed that Gorbachev might say something significant
on this issue during the Washington summit and were disappointed when he did not.
But Afghanistan has always been the least important of the three obstacles for China,
and Chinese officials have stated privately for years that the Soviet presence there does,
-3-
SECRET
25X1
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/13: CIA-RDP04T0099OR000300210001-5
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/13: CIA-RDP04T00990R000300210001-5
Truly Obstacles?
Although China is concerned about Soviet actions along its borders and still
worries about Soviet encirclement, in our opinion the three obstacles are essentially a
foreign policy tool and as such are not an insurmountable obstacle to either a summit
or better Sino-Soviet ties. Beijing uses the obstacles in three ways: to modulate its
relations with Moscow, the obstacles waxing and waning in importance depending on
Beijing's goals; to press the Soviets for further concessions on the border and
sales, stand in the way of other Chinese goals.
The obstacles function in much the same way as the Taiwan issue does in the
Sino-US relationship. Beijing seeks concessions on this issue and raises and lowers the
temperature to fit its mood, but Beijing does not let US ties to Taipei, including arms
generations would work out the details.
The Taiwan issue provides a useful analogy. In the early 1970s, Beijing took a
very hard line on Taiwan, insisting that there could be no official relationship with the
United States unless Washington broke all ties with Taipei. Ultimately they settled for
far less -- Liaison Offices in 1972 and continuing US arms sales to Taiwan after
recognition in 1979 -- because they believed they had more to gain by moving ahead
with the United States despite the differences over Taiwan. Beijing declared that
Washington had essentially accepted its principled position on Taiwan and that future
when it has -- the Chinese show great flexibility in applying the principle.
In our judgment, progress on the three obstacles sufficient to permit a summit is
a matter of definition. Beijing can declare at any time that Moscow has substantially
met its concerns on the obstacles. When negotiating, the Chinese insist that their
"principled position" be accepted by the other side, but once it has -- and China defines
China could conclude that a summit or senior-level meeting would serve its
interests in a number of ways. First and foremost would be to redress what it may see
as an imbalance in the.strategic triangle. Beijing may believe that a Sino-Soviet summit
would remind Washington that it cannot take China for granted and that, unless
satisfied, China can take steps that significantly change the US security environment.
. The Chinese may also see a senior-level meeting as helping Gorbachev. After a
period of doubt, Beijing has concluded that the General Secretary sincerely wants better
relations with China and that his focus on domestic development contributes to a stable
international environment that China's reform program needs to succeed.
-4-
SECRET
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/13: CIA-RDP04T00990R000300210001-5
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/13: CIA-RDP04T0099OR000300210001-5
To Beijing's way of thinking, a summit also could be useful in dealing with Hanoi,
especially if it comes before agreement is reached on a Cambodia solution. A senior
meeting would play on Vietnamese fears of being sold out, especially because China has
stressed that the Soviets must meet its demands on Cambodia before a summit can
occur.3 Beijing may hope that this would make Hanoi more flexible, but, in any case,
increasing the discomfort in Hanoi is an end in itself.
China may hope to have the same effect on India. The border dispute escalated
last year, and isolated clashes and even hostilities are possible. Moscow has avoided
taking New Delhi's side in the border dispute. During his visit to India in November
1986, Gorbachev offered only platitudes on the need to resolve regional issues, avoiding
endorsement of India's position. China may conclude that a summit can only add to
Indian doubts about Soviet reliability, and perhaps thereby weaken New Delhi's resolve
and increase Beijing's leverage in the border negotiations.
Thinking About Level ...
Beijing recognizes that a summit runs the risk of increasing concern in the West
about the direction of Sino-Soviet relations that could decrease China's access to
Western technology and markets.
As a result, if China decides a senior-level meeting with the Soviets is in its
interests, it may not opt for a Deng-Gorbachev meeting. Both sides agreed in principle
to a Foreign Minister's meeting outside the United Nations (where they meet each fall),
but a specific date has never been set. That invitation could be picked up and a
meeting set for Moscow or Beijing, perhaps in conjunction with the border talks or the
normalization discussions.
A second option is a meeting between the two Presidents -- largely ceremonial
positions on both sides -- or an exchange of. visits by the two Premiers. Perhaps less
likely is a meeting between Gorbachev and his Chinese counterpart, Zhao Ziyang,
because it would be a party-to-party meeting, something the Soviets want and. China
would try to extract a high price for, in part because of the likely reaction in the West.
3 Hanoi is deeply suspicious of both Beijing and Moscow. It believes that both capitals
negotiated away a Vietnamese victory at the 1954 Geneva Conference, and that
Moscow did not apply any military pressure on Beijing when China invaded Vietnam
in 1979.
-5-
SECRET
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/13: CIA-RDP04T0099OR000300210001-5
25X1
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/13: CIA-RDP04T00990R000300210001-5
... and Timing
Assuming the will, timing becomes the most critical question, and Chinese
practice offers clues on a possible time frame. First, the decision on a Sino-Soviet
senior-level meeting is not going to be made lightly, and China will want to be sure that
its position in the strategic triangle has slipped, or is in real danger of slipping, before
going ahead. This suggests to us that Beijing would want to wait for the outcome of
the fourth Reagan-Gorbachev summit. In any case, China is unlikely to agree to a
senior-level meeting with the Soviets before a Rea an-Gorbachev meetin for fear of
increasing Moscow's leverage over Washington.
If past practice holds, Beijing would try to balance a Soviet meeting with a visit
by a senior US official. For instance, in May 1984 First Deputy Premier Arkhipov, the
most senior Soviet visitor to date, was scheduled to begin a China visit immediately
after President Reagan." And, in October 1986 Secretary of Defense Weinberger and
Soviet Vice Foreign Minister Rogachev were breifly in country at the same time.
In the last few weeks, Chinese Foreign Ministry officials have inquired about
Secretary Shultz's schedule for later this year, and Chinese Defense officials are pressing
for a visit by a senior US military figure. If Beijing believes it is at a serious
disadvantage in the triangle, and/or if it believes that its security interests would be
served by boosting Gorbachev's stock, and, if a senior US visit can be arranged, then, to
Chinese thinking the ideal timing for a senior Sino-Soviet meeting would be after the
Reagan-Gorbachev meeting and before the China-US meeting in the expectation that
the Sino-Soviet meeting could increase Beijing's leverage in discussions with
Washington.
" The Soviets cancelled the visit -- although they subsequently rescheduled it for
December 1984 -- in the face of China's warm reception for President Reacian and a
dramatic upsurge in Chinese artillery barrages against Vietnam.
-6-
SECRET
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/13: CIA-RDP04T00990R000300210001-5
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/13: CIA-RDP04T00990R000300210001-5
Chronology of Sino-Soviet Relations Since Gorbachev's
Vladivostok Speech
28 July 1986
Soviet General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev makes a dramatic speech in Vladivostok
aimed at convincing China that the Soviet Union seriously wants improved relations.
2 September 1986
During a television interview with "60 minutes", Deng Xiaoping says that if the "main
obstacle" to Sino-Soviet relations -- namely, the Vietnamese-Cambodian issue -- can
be removed, he is willing to meet Gorbachev in Moscow.
8-15 September 1986
Candidate politburo member Nikolay Talyzin heads a Soviet delegation to Beijing marking
the first visit of a Soviet politburo member since Kosygin in 1969. Talyzin and Vice
Premier Yao Yilin discuss ways to broaden Sino-Soviet economic and technical
cooperation; Talyzin later holds talks with Zhao Ziyang. During the visit Deputy Foreign
Minister Rogachev and Vice Foreign Minister Qian sign a revised consular treaty.
24 September 1986
Chinese Foreign Minister Wu Xueqian meets with Soviet Foreign Minister Shevardnadze
for the third time in three years in New York at the opening of the UN General
Assembly. The two agree to hold border talks in 1987.
28-30 September 1986
Polish General Secretary Jaruzelski makes a working.visit to China and establishes the
first party-to-party ties between China and a bloc country, other than Romania, in over
25 years.
6-14 October 1986
The ninth round of Sino-Soviet Political Talks on the normalization of relations takes
place in Beijing between Soviet Deputy Foreign Minister Rogachev and Chinese Vice
Foreign Minister Qian. Moscow agrees for the first time to discuss the removal of the
"three major obstacles" to normalization.
9-23 February 1987
Soviet Deputy Foreign Minister Rogachev and Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Qian resume
long-suspended border talks in Moscow. Qian meets with Foreign Minister
Shevardnadze. The Chinese continue to call for a comprehensive settlement of the
border question.
14-20 April 1987
Tenth round of Sino-Soviet Political Talks is held in Moscow. There are no indications
of progress on Cambodia or Afghanistan.
-7-
SECRET
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/13: CIA-RDP04T00990R000300210001-5
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/13: CIA-RDP04T0099OR000300210001-5
20 April 1987
Deng Xiaoping says. in remarks during the visit of the General Secretary of the Indian
Communist Party to Beijing, "We hope for the normalization of political relations with the
Soviet Union, but this requires concrete actions on the Soviet side."
29 April 1987
The Soviets begin a limited withdrawal of troops from Mongolia.
6-13 May 1987
Chinese Vice Premier Yao Yilin heads Chinese delegation visiting Moscow for the annual
meeting of the .Sinn-Soviet Commission for Economic, Trade, Scientific, and Technical
cooperation. The Soviet host is Planning Chief Nikolay Talyzin. A protocol is signed to
expand trade in the border areas and to continue cooperation in trade transport and air
services.
4-21 June 1987
Acting Party Secretary Zhao Ziyang visits Poland, East Germany, Czechoslovakia,
Hungary, and Bulgaria, completing full restoration of relations with all five nations.
7 June 1987.
China and Mongolia sign a border treaty in Ulan Bataar.
1 August 1987
Soviet Defense Minister Yazov cables greetings to Zhang Aiping, Chinese Defense
Minister, on the anniversary of the founding of the People's Liberation Army. This is the
first time such a gesture has been made in 20 years.
7-21 August 1987
Second round of the Sino-Soviet border talks are held in Beijing. There are signs of
progress toward settling the river boundary in the east, but the Chinese and Soviets still
must work out the details; also must address the more complex question of the
mountain boundary in the west.
20 September 1987
Soviet Foreign Minister Shevardnadze and Chinese. Foreign Minister Wu Xueqian meet at
the Soviet mission in New York during the opening of the UNGA and discuss a variety
of issues; includes a frank exchange on Cambodia.
8-14 October 1987
Eleventh round of Sino-Soviet Political Talks is held in Beijing. Chinese Foreign Minister
Wu tells Soviet Deputy Foreign Minister Rogachev that the key to a settlement of the
Cambodian question lies in an early and complete withdrawal of the Vietnamese troops.
Talks break off after only one week as both sides remain unyielding on this issue.
31 October 1987
China acknowledges receiving a message of congratulations from the Soviet Communist
Party to mark the Chinese Communist Party's 13th Congress;' first time in 30 years that
Beijing has mentioned such a message.
-8-
SECRET
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/13: CIA-RDP04T0099OR000300210001-5
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/13: CIA-RDP04T00990R000300210001-5
October 1987
Soviets send a three-member press delegation to cover China's Party Congress.
Previous Soviet press coverage in China was limited to non-political events.
1 November 1987
Xinhua reports on the publishing of Gorbachev's book, "Perestroika", quoting Gorbachev
as saying that the USSR shares responsibility for the mistakes within the socialist world
and that the USSR should learn from its breaches with China.
3 November. 1987
General Secretary Gorbachev cables Zhao Ziyang to congratulate him on his election. as
General Secretary of China's Communist Party. Zhao does not acknowledge Gorbachev's
congratulations.
6 November 1987
CPSU Central Committee Secretary Anatoliy Dobrynin receives Zhang Wenjin, Chinese
People's Society for Friendship with Foreign Countries Chairman, who heads a delegation
to the celebration of the 70th anniversary of the Great October Socialist Revolution in
Moscow. Visit marks the first time since early 1960s that Chinese have. attended the
celebrations.
27 November 1987
During talks with Zambian President Kaunda, General Secretary Gorbachev proposes a
Sino-Soviet summit to discuss Cambodia and other issues. A Chinese Ministry of
Foreign Affairs official reiterates China's demand that the Cambodian issue must be
resolved prior to a summit.
21 December 1987
Soviet Deputy Foreign Minister Rogachev briefs Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Qian
Qichen on the US-Soviet summit in Washington and the INF Treaty with the U.S.
3 January 1988
Chinese "Liaowang" weekly publishes an exclusive interview with Gorbachev, in which he
calls for a Sino-Soviet Summit meeting. Chinese respond by saying that Deng has
made the conditions for a high level meeting quite clear and that "at present it is the
strong hope of the international community that Vietnam will withdraw all its troops
from Kampuchea promptly." -Xinhua and Renmin Ribao summaries of the interview omit
Gorbachev's call for a summit.
15 January 1987
Tass reports the publishing of a Russian language version of Deng Xiaoping's book
"Principal Issues Concerning Present Day China".
23 January 1988
Pravda article calls for Sino-Soviet summit, noting that "the Soviet-Chinese summit
meeting could become the logical development of the beginning of political dialogue
between the USSR and the People's Republic of China." This marks the third Soviet call
for a summit in less than two months.
-9-
SECRET
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/13: CIA-RDP04T00990R000300210001-5
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/13: CIA-RDP04T0099OR000300210001-5
SUBJECT: Speculating on a Possible Sino-Soviet Summit (C NF)
DISTRIBUTION:
The White House and National Security Council
1 - Lieutenant General Colin Powell, Assistant to the President for National Security
Affairs, 1st Floor West Wing
1 - Don Gregg, Special Assistant to the Vice President, Room 298
1 - James H. Kelly, Jr., Senior Staff Member, East Asia, Room 302
1 - Robert Oakley, Special Assistant to the President and Senior. Director, National
Security Council, Room 348
1 - Doug Paal, Director of Asian Affairs, National Security Council, Room 493
Department of State
1 - The Honorable George P. Shultz, Secretary of State, Room 7226
1 - The Honorable Michael H. Armacost, Under Secretary for Political Affairs,
Room 7240
1 - The Honorable Richard W. Murphy, Assistant Secretary for Near Eastern and South
Asian Affairs,. Room 6242
1 - The Honorable Gaston Sigur, Assistant Secretary for East Asia and Pacific Affairs,
Room 6205
1 - Ambassador H. Alan Holmes, Director, Bureau of Political and Military Affairs,
Room 7327
1 - Ambassador Morton Abramowitz, Director, INR, Room 6531
1 - Richard Williams, Director, EAP/CH, Room 4318
1 - Richard Solomon, Director, Policy Planning Staff, Room 7311
Department of Defense
1 - The Honorable. Frank Carlucci, Secretary of Defense, Room 3E880
1 - The Honorable Richard L. Armitage, Assistant Secretary of Defense for International
Security Policy, Room 4E808
1 - Admiral William J. Crowe, Jr., Chairman, Joint Chief of Staff, Room 2E873
1 - Rear Admiral Baker, Deputy Assistant Secretary for East Asia, ISA, Room 4E817
1 - Vice Admiral Baldwin, Joint Chiefs of Staff, Director, Plans and Policy, J-5,
Room 2E996
1 - Karl D. Jackson, Deputy Assistant Secretary for East Asia and Pacific Affairs,
Room 4E817
Defense Intelligence Agency
1 - Lieutenant General Leonard H. Perroots, Director, Defense Intelligence Agency,
Room 3E258
1 - John J. Sloan, Defense Intelligence Officer, East Asia and Pacific, Room .2C238
- 10 -
SECRET
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/13: CIA-RDP04T0099OR000300210001-5
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/13: CIA-RDP04T0099OR000300210001-5
National Security Agency
1 - Lieutenant General William Odom, Director, National Security Agency, Room 9A192
Central Intelligence Agency
Key Building, Room 814
1 - D/OEA, Room 4F18
1 - C/OEA/Production, Room 4G48
1 - C/OEA/NEA, Room 4G43
1 - C/OEA/SEA, Room 4F42
10 - C/OEA/CH, Room 4020
1 - C/OEA/EA, Room 4G32
1 - C/OEA/TT, Room 4G32
1 - C/OEA/IS; Room 4G32
1 - C/OEA/PA, Room 4G32
1
1
6 - CPAS/IMC/CB, Room 7G07
1 - Senior Review Panel, Room 5000
1 - D/NESA, Room 2G11
1 - D/OGI, Room 3003
1 - DDI, Room 7E44
1 - DCI/COMPT, Room 7C36
1 - NIO/EA, Room 7E62
1 - NIO/MESA, Room 7E48
1 - NIC/AG, Room 7E47
1 - C/N~ Room 6000
1 - C/E Room 5010
1 - C/PES, Room 7F24
1 - PDB Staff, Room 7F30
1 - CPAS/ILS, Room 7050
1 D/DCI/DDCI, Executive Staff, Room 7D60
- 11 -
SECRET.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/13: CIA-RDP04T0099OR000300210001-5