(UNTITLED)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP04T00794R000200680001-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: January 12, 2017
• Document Release Date: May 18, 2011
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 1, 1986
• Content Type: REPORT

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Intelligence 25X1
in 1985: A Survey
China's Energy Picture
EA 86-10015
April 1986
Copy 2 8 9
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 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/18: CIA-RDP04T00794R000200680001-3
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/18: CIA-RDP04T00794R000200680001-3
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/18: CIA-RDP04T00794R000200680001-3
Intelligence 25X1
China's Energy Picture
in 1985: A Survey
Office of East Asian Analysis. 25X1
Comments and queries are welcome and may be
directed to the Chief, China Division, OE~ 25X1
Confidential
EA 86-10015
April / 986
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/18: CIA-RDP04T00794R000200680001-3
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/18: CIA-RDP04T00794R000200680001-3
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/18: CIA-RDP04T00794R000200680001-3
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/18: CIA-RDP04T00794R000200680001-3
Confidential
China's Energy Picture
in 1985: A SurveyF___1 25X1
Key Judgments China's energy sector turned in a strong performance in 1985, with record
Information available production of coal, oil, and electric power. Energy growth of 8 percent,
as of 31 March /986 supplemented by improved efficiency and conservation, helped sustain
was used in this report.
China's double-digit industrial growth last year. Nonetheless, chronic
problems with power shortages and coal transport continued to disrupt the
economy, and offshore oil exploration showed little promise of providing a
new long-run source of supply.
Increased investment, greater foreign cooperation, and the introduction of
more economic incentives all contributed to China's growth in energy
output:
? Coal output grew rapidly in response to higher prices and the opening of
more small rural mines.
? New discoveries of oil at China's existing onshore fields helped offset the
disappointing results offshore.
? Electric power output increased as more power plants opened, but Beijing
slowed its civilian nuclear power program because of its foreign exchange
shortage.
China's energy prospects are clouded. by budget and foreign exchange
problems that may reduce funds needed for expansion. Planners are taking
a hard look at planned "big-ticket" items like the civilian nuclear program
and the Three Gorges dam, and have already canceled a major coal
venture with Japan. In the short run, US exports to China of energy
technology and equipment may be hurt by these cutbacks, but the United
States is likely to remain a key source of investment and energy technology
crucial to China's modernization.
The United States is the largest foreign investor in China's energy sector
and is a key supplier of energy-related technology. Two of China's biggest
joint ventures-the Pingshuo open pit coal mine and the offshore natural
gasfield near Hainan Island-involve US firms. US oil companies have
been very active in the search for oil offshore, and they have also helped
China find new oil reserves onshore. Although cooperation on nuclear
power has been deferred, China recently agreed to buy two US-built
conventional power plants, and the prospects for additional sales are good.
Confidential
EA 86-10015
April / 986
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 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/18: CIA-RDP04T00794R000200680001-3
Confidential
The drop in international oil prices will reduce China's foreign exchange
earnings and will probably cause foreign oil firms to reduce their explora-
tion efforts in China. We estimate that China's foreign exchange earnings
from oil exports will decline by $1.6 billion in 1986, assuming oil prices av-
erage $18 per barrel, and China sustains its recent promise to freeze oil ex-
ports at last year's volume. China stands to lose approximately $270
million this year for every additional dollar the price of oil drops.
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/18: CIA-RDP04T00794R000200680001-3
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/18: CIA-RDP04T00794R000200680001-3
Confidential
Key Judgments
iii
Offshore Oil Exploration
3
Electric Power: Shortages Force Equipment Imports
5
China's Nuclear Power Program
6
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Confidential
Energy Sites
S Indiap Oilfield
Oil and gas basin
~o Open-pit coal mine
Nuclear power plant (planned)
Hydroelectric power plant
Province-level boundary
SSannia
('Throe Gorge
0 200 400 Kilometers
0 200 400 Miles
Mongolia
Hainan
Duo
Beijing
BEf,
J Hebei
h7uEiJat /~
Shijiazhe
el" North
Korea
Boundary representation is
not necessarily authoritative.
South China
Sea ?