JAPAN HIGHLIGHTS: 1 MAY - 15 JUNE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP04T00447R000301790001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 8, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: June 17, 1985
• Content Type: MEMO

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DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
17 June 1985
Summary
The Japanese media are playing up Prime Minister
Nakasone's successful performance at the Bonn Summit
as a prelude to his preparations for the Economic
Summit in Tokyo next year. On the domestic front,
political observers have continued to focus on the
future of the Tanaka faction. Former Prime Minister
Tanaka has returned home from the hospital, but the
reporters who cover him speculate he will remain
incapacitated for a year or more. Press commentary is
suggesting that his role as a faction leader and 25X1
Nakasone After the Bonn Summit
As reflected in press commentary, Nakasone's role at the
Bonn Summit was one of a Prime Minister who could hold his own
with the European leaders. One front-page item began with the
This memorandum was prepared by Office of East
Asian Analysis. Information available as of 17 June 1985 was
used in its preparation. Comments and queries are welcome and
may be directed to the Chie Japan Branch, Northeast Asia
Division, OEA
Duplicate of C05422690:
RIP
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headline, "Nakasone Lectures Westerners at the Summit," and
cited Nakasone's intervening in a heated discussion between
Presidents Reagan and Mitterrand to remind the French leader
that "the West must stay united." The media is dramatizing
Nakasone's early efforts to make next year's Summit in Tokyo a
success, and further highlighting his plans to persuade
Mitterrand not to boycott the next Summit. Media coverage
suggests Nakasone's visit to France in mid-July will further
develop his personal relationship with Mitterrand.
Tanaka as a "Private Citizen"
Political journalists report that since his return home
from the hospital in April, Tanaka has effectively had lines of
communication cut with his faction. Press speculation has
suggested that a combination of problems at the public
hospital--lack of a neurologist in residence, inadequate
rehabilitation facilities, inability to accept the service of an
accupuncture specialist sent by the Chinese government--led to
his convalescence at home
The media appears, in effect, to have written Tanaka off as
a political force and believes at this point Makiko, his
daughter, could play a key role in deciding his future. Press
stories have cited her recent decision to transfer the financial
account of the most powerful Tanaka support group, Etsuzan-kai,
to Tanaka's personal account as an example of her new role.
Reporters also attribute the decision to close Tanaka's
political headquarters to Makiko. She reportedly was
instrumental in Tanaka's decision to leave office in 1974 and
according to reporters, could again convince Tanaka to resign
Impact on the Tanaka Faction
With Tanaka out of the picture, acting faction chairman
Nikaido has been portrayed as in charge. But various news
articles have predicted that Finance Minister Takeshita will
emerge as a unifying force, and others have identified
contending groups in the faction:
Nikaido's group. Various media sources indicate Nikaido's
unabashed campaign to succeed Nakasone has embarrassed some of
his supporters, who according to a 25 May press item belive he
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and his aides are "going overboard." Press stories report
Nikaido has attempted to court former Prime Ministers Fukuda and
Miki and Minister Without Portfolio Komoto--enemies of
Tanaka--and in so doing angered other faction members.
Takeshita's "Soseikai" group. Takeshita's group has
remained loyal to Tanaka by keeping a low profile. Newspaper
reports indicate the group is concentrating on improving
Takeshita's image. Various political observers believe the
Soseikai has the solid support of party Secretary General
Kanemaru and Prime Minister Nakasone. Press reports said
Kanemaru took the first step to back Takeshita for a leadership
position when, at a faction meeting in late May, he suggested
his name as deputy chairman of the faction.
A "Neutral" group. The reporters who cover the faction
claim this group includes senior faction members Gotoda and
Ozawa. The two are staunch Tanaka supporters who have
criticized Nikaido and reportedly want Tanaka to play the role
of "public figure" and unifying force in the faction. Political
analysts emphasize, however, that Gotoda and Ozawa support
Takeshita's eventual presidential candidacy. They have
speculated that Gotoda has convinced a majority of the younger
Dietmen--including Tanaka's son-in-law--who are not formally in
the Soseikai to support Takeshita.
LDP Without Tanaka
Speculation already has focused on the effects on the
political and governmental scene of Tanaka's departure. Some
journalists argue that without Tanaka, decisionmaking within the
Liberal Democratic Party could become less efficient. Several
have pointed out that negotiations concerning the election
reform issue and the selection of future gubernatorial and upper
house LDP candidates would have proceeded more smoothly if
Other political analysts believe Tanaka's prolonged absence
puts Nakasone in the strongest position he has held since he
assumed the prime ministership. They point out, for example,
that with Tanaka out of the picture, Nakasone will have a major
vote in the selection of the next prime minister and may use
Tanaka's absence to strengthen his position by calling a general
election. In any event, most commentators foresee no major
political events until this fall, when, several have suggested,
Nakasone may shuffle his cabinet:
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Japan Highlights: 1 May - 15 June 1985
Original - OEA/NAD/Japan
1 - OEA/NAD/Korea
1 - OEA/NAD
1 - OEA Production Office
1 - D/OEA
1 - DDI
1 - NIO/EA
1 - C/PES
1 - C/EA/RR
1 - OCR/ISG
5 - CPAS/IMC/CB
1 - Donald Gregg, Office of the Vice President
1 - Thomas Hubbard, Department of State
1 - William Brooks, Department of State
1 - Byron Jackson, Department of Commerce
1 - Doug Mulholland, Department of the Treasury
1 - Glen Fukushima, Office of the United States Trade
Representative
1 -
DDI/OEA/NAD
/JAPAN
(17 June 1985
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