JAPAN HIGHLIGHTS: FEBRUARY 1985

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP04T00447R000201300001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 13, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 26, 1985
• Content Type: MEMO

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Central Intelligence Agency
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
26 February 1985
JAPAN HIGHLIGHTS: February 1985
During February the opposition parties brought
the lower house Budget Committee to a halt three
times, Prime Minister Nakasone made politically
controversial statements on defense and tax policy,
and he broke a postwar taboo by attending National
Foundation Day ceremonies on 11 February. Despite
these newsworthy developments, the newspapers and
weekly magazines have given top billing to the
formation of a group--the Sosei-kai--by Finance
Minister Takeshita, one of the most influential
lieutenants in the Tanaka faction.
Tanaka Faction Hit By Shock Wave
Takeshita is backed by powerful Liberal Democratic Party
(LDP) Secretary General Kanemaru, who has publicly described
Sosei-kai as merely a policy study group. Other press reports,
however, state that it has all the trappings of a faction,
including executive officers and a charter of its own.
This memorandum was prepared by Japan Branch,
Northeast Asia Division, Office as sian Analysis.
Information available as of 26 February was used in its
preparation. Comments and queries are welcome and may be
directed to the Chief, Japan Branch, Northeast Asia Division,
Duplicate of C05422638:
RIP
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Widespread press speculation in early February focused on
whether Takeshita would be able to use the new group to launch a
bid for the party presidency and whether Sosei-kai would become a
threat to the unity of the formidable Tanaka faction, Nakasone's
major ally. Several papers reported Tanaka was "extremely
annoyed" by Takeshita's move. As one weekly journal pointed out,
Tanaka was also humiliated by the breakdown of his renowned
network for gathering political information. The article claimed
Tanaka did not learn of Takeshita's plans until Takeshita
personally informed him after the group had been formed.
According to various press reports, Foreign Minister Abe had
known about Sosei-kai since last December. Press commentators
cited Abe's knowledge as a demonstration of the close ties
between Abe and Takeshita, the LDP's two most popular new
leaders. Press coverage of opinion among other influential LDP
leaders, such as former Prime Minister Fukuda and LDP External
Trade Council Chairman Esaki--who, like Tanaka, are reluctant to
see power pass to the younger generation--cited their regret over
Takeshita's action. Reporters who cover the Tanaka faction said
that even many pro-Takeshita members of the faction were
reportedly disappointed by the steps leading to the formation of
the Sosei-kai, in particular Takeshita's failure to include them
in his secret planning.
Despite the initial flurry of public speculation on the
political impact of the formation of the Sosei-kai, most
journalists and commentators believe. the incident once again
demonstrates the limited power of the new leaders and Tanaka's
continued control over his faction:
-- One report said that although Takeshita signed up 83 of
Tanaka's 125 faction members, only 40 turned up for his
inaugural meeting on 7 February. The rest dropped out,
apparently under pressure from Tanaka.
-- Takeshita's backer, Secretary General Kanemaru, has
repeatedly emphasized in public that the Sosei-kai
exists "because of and for" the Tanaka faction. He
reportedly told enthusiastic Sosei-kai members to "cool
it" in order to maintain a unified Tanaka faction.
-- Press reports in all major dailies have given extensive
coverage to Takeshita-Tanaka talks, during which both
reportedly agreed to do their best to maintain the unity
of the faction.
-- And an Asahi newspaper survey of Tanaka faction members
on 9 February noted that the ma.iority want to see Tanaka
maintain his leadership.
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Political reporters in Tokyo say their sources generally
claim that differences over Takeshita's policy group are settled
for the time being and that Tanaka and Takeshita are in a period
of "detente." They note, however, that manuevering by aspiring
new leaders in the Tanaka faction will continue, as will a tug-
of-war between Tanaka supporters and those who want Takeshita to
Nakasone-Kanemaru Teamwork
While political observers concentrated on LDP factional
politics, Nakasone did well in the first month of the Diet
session--in spite of occasional deadlocks in the lower house.
The press has given much of the credit to LDP Secretary General
Kanemaru, calling him the power behind Nakasone. The Prime
Minister reportedly has left Diet management to Kanemaru, who has
close ties to opposition party leaders, the Socialists in
particular. Reporters who cover the Diet for the major papers
say the Secretary General's skill is being tested as he works
behind the scenes on a contentious bill for reapportioning some
Based on events in the last several weeks, most Japanese
political observers. believe that Nakasone's political base is
strong:
-- They cite his continued backing by former Prime Minister
Tanaka and Kanemaru, and by Takeshita and Abe, who are
part of his government.
-- His popularity in public opinion polls--which Nakasone
calls his "life-line"--remains high.
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CONFIDENTIAL
Distribution
Subject: Japan Highlights: February 1985
Original - C/OEA/NA
1 - C/OEA/NA/K
1 - C/OEA/NA/J
1 - OEA/Research Director
1 - D/OEA
1 - DDI
1 - NIO/EA
1 - D/OMPS
1 - C/EA
1 - OCR/ISG
5 - CPAS/IMC/CB 25X1
1 - Donald Gregg, Office of the Vice President
1 - Desaix Anderson, Department of State
1 - William Brooks, Department of State
1 - LTC Lee Smith, Department of Defense
1 - Byron Jackson, Department of Commerce
1 - Douglas Mulholland, Department of Treasury 25X1
1 - Lew Cramer, United States Trade Representative
1 - National Security Agency
DDI/OEA/NA/Japan (26 February 1985)
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