THE THAI-LAO BORDER DISPUTE: CONTINUING TO FESTER

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP04T00367R000302120001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 1, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 15, 1984
• Content Type: REPORT

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/22 : CIA-RDP04T00367R000302120001-5
Iq
Next 1 Page(s) In Document Denied
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/22 : CIA-RDP04T00367R000302120001-5
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/22 : CIA-RDP04T00367R000302120001-5
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
15 October 1984
The Thai-Lao Border Dispute:
Continuing to Fester
Summary
Thailand has announced that it will withdraw
Army units from three isolated villages on the Thai-
Lao border to defuse a six-month territorial dispute
with Laos. Such a move by Thailand may founder,
however, because of Vientiane's efforts to exploit
the issue. Laos, with Vietnamese and Soviet
encouragement, has taken the dispute to the UN in an
effort to discredit Thailand's bid for a Security
Council seat when the voting takes place later this
month. Although we do not expect Vientiane's
efforts will permanently damage Thailand's chances
for Security Council membership, the Lao strategy
may prevent Thailand, and especially the Thai Army,
from backing away gracefullly.
The Dispute Until Now
Last March Lao troops began harassing Thai crews building a
road near the contested area. In mid-April Lao forces attacked
Thai border defense units and occupied the villages of Ban Mai,
Ban Klanff. and Ban Sawang.
This memorandum was prepared byl
(
Southeast Asia 25X1
Division, Office of East Asian Analysis, and was coordinated with
the Office of Soviet Analysis and the Office of Global Issues.
Information available as of 9 October 1984 was used in its
Comments and queries are welcom
ation
e and may be
.
prepar
directed to Chief,
S
outheast Asia Division, O
EA,
25X1
Copy W.S of
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/22 : CIA-RDP04T00367R000302120001-5
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/22 : CIA-RDP04T00367R000302120001-5
Bangkok raised the stakes in June following a border visit
by Army Commander-in-Chief General Athit Kamlang-ek when elements
of three regular battalions, reportedly dispatched to protect
road crews, seized the villages. Lao troops have harassed Thai
positions but they have made no serious effort to reoccupy the
disputed territory.
'Roth sides have reinforced the area in recent months.
New Developments
The border dis ute has divided senior Thai officials i
recent months.
on 2 October the Foreign Minim
announced that Thailand would unilaterally withdraw.
Until then, diplomatic efforts to resolve the dispute had
failed. The issue of demilitarizing the contested area, with
Vientiane insisting upon a unilateral Thai withdrawal and Bangkok
calling for a bilateral withdrawal, was the primary impediment.
Despite Siddhi's announcement, the Army's withdrawal plans
are unclear and it may be engaged in delaying tactics. The Thai
UN Ambassador indicated that the withdrawal would be completed by
6 October.
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/22 : CIA-RDP04T00367R000302120001-5
25X1
25X1
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/22 : CIA-RDP04T00367R000302120001-5
The UN Angle
The Indochinese countries, with Soviet support, have
attempted to gain maximum propaganda value out of the conflict.
Vientiane launched a concerted propaganda campaign against the
Thai actions. Vietnamese influence also is apparent in Lao
propaganda which portrays Laos as the victim of Thai aggression
orchestrated by China. Vientiane's release last month of a
"White Book" on Thai-Lao relations, alleging the resurgence of
historic "pan-Thai tendencies" and collusion with China,
resembled a Vietnamese-inspired effort by the Heng Samrin regime
in Kampuchea in 1983.
Laos, probably with Vietnamese encouragement, has taken the
dispute to the UN in an effort to defeat Thailand's Security
Council candidacy. The Security Council President granted
Vientiane's request and convened a council meeting, on
9 October. In additon, we believe Vietnam has seized upon the
dispute to try to strengthen its negotiating position at the
United Nations on the Kampuchean issue. Hanoi probably will use
the border dispute to try to weaken support for the ASEAN UN
resolution condemning the Vietnamese occupation of Kampuchea. We
expect the Lao and the Vietnamese manuevers will have little
impact other than temporarily embarrassing the Thai. Bangkok
remains in a favorable position to defeat the Soviet-sponsored
Mongolian candidacy for. the Asian seat on the Security Council
t
o
and Hanoi is resigned
defeat on any UN initiatives involving its Kampuchea policy.
Looking Ahead
We expect Thai forces will gradually vacate the three
villages but remain in the disputed area. For its part, Laos
probably will continue harassing Thai units to keep the dispute
alive for a few more weeks. Press reports indicate Lao troops
attacked Thai positions in Ban Mai and Ban Klang on 7 October.
Nonetheless, once Thai Army units withdraw and the UN General
Assembly ends its session, we expect Laos to moderate its
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/22 : CIA-RDP04T00367R000302120001-5
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/22 : CIA-RDP04T00367R000302120001-5
position on the issue. Although renewed negotiations are
unlikely, Laos may cease harassment of Thai forces clearing the
way for Bangkok's exit.
Thailand in any case probably is re grin to concede the
disputed territor .
Moreover, according to 25X1
the Thai Foreign Ministry, the road is being directed away from
the contested area.
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/22 : CIA-RDP04T00367R000302120001-5
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/22 : CIA-RDP04T00367R000302120001-5
~~
rj CHIANG RAI
fr) CHIANG MAI
LOUANGPHRABANG / r'
LAOS
DISPUTED AF'EN``
[t i~ UDON THANK
THAILAND
THAILAND-LAOS BORDER
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/22 : CIA-RDP04T00367R000302120001-5
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/22 : CIA-RDP04T00367R000302120001-5
SUBJECT: The Thai-Lao Border Dispute: Continuing to Fester
Distribution:
Copy 1-2 - OEA/SEA/ITM
Copy 3 - Richard Childress, NSC
Copy 4 -
Copy 5 -
Copy 6 - Nicholas Mauger, State/Thai
Copy 7 -
Copy 8 -
Copy 9 -
Alan Kitchens, State/INR
Alice Straub, State/INR
John Mohenko, State/INR
Copy 10
Copy 11
-
-
Copy
12
-
Copy
13
-
Copy
14
-
Copy
15 - Lt. Col. William Wise, Pentagon
Copy
16 - Lt. Col. Denny Lane, Pentagon
Copy
17
-
FBIS/NEA
Copy
18
-
FBIS/AG
Copy
19
-
OCR/EA
'Copy
20
-
SOVA/TWAD
Copy
21 - OEA/SEAD
Copy
22 - OEA/SEA/IB
Copy
23 - OEA/NEA
Copy
24 - OEA/CH
Copy
25 - D/OEAA
Copy
26 - OEA/Research
Copy
27 -
Copy
28 - C N
Co
29 -
py
Copy
30 -
Copy
31 - DDI
Copy
32 - Executive Director
Copy
33 - CPAS/ILS
Copy
34-3 8 - CPAS/IMD/CB
Copy
Copy
39 - C/PES/DDI
40 - OCR/ISG
Copy
41 -
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/22 : CIA-RDP04T00367R000302120001-5