MEETING WITH DICK LEHMAN ON PROGRAM REVIEW

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP03B01495R000100190004-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 20, 2013
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: April 30, 1981
• Content Type: MEMO

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28 April 1981
A PROPOSED STRUCTURE FOR A
PART OF PROGRAM REVIEW
? BACKGROUND
? GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF PROPOSED APPROACH
41 TEST CASE ILLUSTRATING ROLE OF MISSION EXPERTS
? SPECIFIC PROPOSAL FOR UPCOMING PROGRAM REVIEW
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BACKGROUND
? NFIP PROGRAM REVIEW PROCESS
- PROGRAM MANAGERS SUBMIT REQUESTS IN PRIORITY ORDER
ICS REVIEWS SUBMISSIONS AND PRESENTS ALTERNATIVES IN ISSUE PAPERS.
ALTERNATIVES MIGHT INCLUDE:
-- CHANGES IN PRIORITIES
-- NEED FOR ADDITIONAL PACKAGES
-- CHANGES IN BUDGET LEVELS
- RESULTS OF REVIEW ARE SUMMARIZED IN DCI DECISION LETTERS
? AREAS FOR POTENTIAL IMPROVEMENT
- MORE STRUCTURED REVIEW ACROSS PROGRAMS
- BROADER COMMUNITY INVOLVEMENT IN REVIEW PROCESS
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GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF PROPOSED APPROACH
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PARTICIPANTS
? FUNCTIONAL TEAMS WITHIN ICS
PRODUCTION
- IMAGERY COLLECTION, PROCESSING AND EXPLOITATION
- SIGINT COLLECTION, PROCESSING AND REPORTING
- HUMINT COLLECTION AND REPORTING
- OTHER COLLECTION
- GENERAL SUPPORT
? 41 MISSION EXPERTS FROM COMMUNITY
- FOREIGN POLICY FORMULATION AND INTERNATIONAL NEGOTIATIONS
- TREATY MONITORING
I&W/CRISIS MANAGEMENT
- MILITARY WEAPONS R&D AND PROCUREMENT
- MILITARY OPERATIONAL PLANNING AND FORCE EMPLOYMENT
- COUNTERINTELLIGENCE
COVERT ACTION
? REPRESENTATIVES OF PROGRAM MANAGERS
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PROGRAM REVIEW ACTIVITIES
FUNCTIONAL TEAMS PREPARE OVERVIEW PAPERS
- BASELINE
- AT RISK
? HEARING ON EACH FUNCTIONAL AREA WITH ATTENDEES FROM
- PROGRAM MANAGERS
- MISSION EXPERTS
- FUNCTIONAL TEAMS
? MISSION EXPERTS ASSIGN BENEFIT SCORES (BASED ONLY ON THEIR MISSION)
TO PACKAGES AT RISK WITHIN EACH/FUNCTIONAL AREA
- METHODOLOGY FOR ELICITING SCORES IS BASED ON THAT USED IN DOD
- RATIONALE FOR SCORES IS RECORDED BY REPRESENTATIVE OF FUNCTIONAL
TEAM
? EACH FUNCTIONAL TEAM WRITES AN ISSUE PAPER ON ITS FUNCTIONAL AREA
COMBINING MISSION EXPERTS' BENEFIT ASSESSMENTS WITH COSTS
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TEST CASE ILLUSTRATING
ROLE OF MISSION EXPERTS
? TEST CASE WAS RUN WITHIN ICS
? BASED ON FY 82 BUDGET DATA
e ONE FUNCTIONAL AREA: IMAGERY
e ONE MISSION AREA: I&W/CRISIS MANAGEMENT
? 55 IMAGERY PACKAGES IN BASELINE
? 40 IMAGERY PACKAGES HAT RISK"
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STAT
STAT
TYPES OF IMAGERY PACKAGES IN BASELINE
COLLECTION AND PROCESSING
? GDIP - PEACETIME AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE
? NRP - KH-8, 9 FLY REMAINING VEHICLES, TERMINATE PROGRAM
- KH-11 NOMINAL PERFORMANCE AND MANAGEMENT PREPARATION FOR
BLOCK II, ACCELERATED 7 AND 8
IOC AUG 85
- SHUTTLE TRANSITION
- ALL R&D, SUPPORT TO OPERATIONS
EXPLOITATION AND DISSEMINATION
? CIAP - OIA/NPIC/OGSR OPERATIONAL
- IDEX PHASE I FUNCTIONING, PHASE II R&D
- R&D FOR MAJOR UPGRADES IN NPIC EXPLOITATION
? GDIP - PHOTOGRAPHIC PROCESSING AND COMMUNITY SERVICES
- ALL EXPLOITATION ORGANIZATIONS OPERATIONAL INCLUDING CRISIS
MANAGEMENT, UPGRADES TO EQUIPMENT, R&D AND PHOTO LAB
- DDS - 4 RECEIVER STATIONS, KH-11
IMAGERY SUPPORT
? CIAP - BASIC ADP SUPPORT, NO CAMS ENHANCEMENT
s ICS - PTO MANNED AT CURRENT LEVEL
? GDIP - AIRES DEVELOPMENT, O&M AND SUPPORT, COINS INTERFACE
Tio-Nr) ?re-rfil ET
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TYPES OF IMAGERY PACKAGES AT RISK
COLLECTION AND PROCESSING
- GDIP ? AIRCRAFT (U-2, KC-135) MODIFICATIONS, UPGRADES AND SUPPORT
? NEW PROCESSING EQUIPMENT AT DIA
NRP ? LAUNCH DATE ACCELERATIONS
? STORE ON ORBIT
? ADDITIONAL SATELLITE ACQUISITIONS
EXPLOITATION AND DISSEMINATION
- CIAP ? ADDITIONAL PERSONNEL AND TRAINING
? R&D AND METHODOLOGY DEVELOPMENT
? ACCELERATE NPIC UPGRADES
- GDIP ? ADDITIONAL MANPOWER AND TRAINING
? SOFTCOPY EXPLOITATION AND EQUIPMENT
? NISC IMAGERY ENHANCEMENTS
IMAGERY SUPPORT .
- CIAP s CAMS ACCELERATION AND UPGRADES
- GDIP 41 ADDITIONAL AIRES MANPOWER
? SUPPORT FOR NEW IMAGING SYSTEMS
TOPS-E6ZET
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METHODOLOGY FOR ASSESSING
BENEFIT OF PACKAGES AT RISKS
GOALS
- ASSIGN NUMERIC BENEFIT SCORE TO EACH PACKAGE AT RISK WHICH
REPRESENTS THE EXPERTS' JUDGMENT OF RELATIVE CONTRIBUTION TO
MISSION BEING EXAMINED
- RECORD RATIONALE UNDERLYING THE SCORES ASSIGNED
APPROACH
- FIRST, PLACE PACKAGES IN RANK ORDER USING PAIRWISE COMPARISONS
- THEN, USE RANK ORDER TO EFFICIENTLY ASK QUESTIONS ABOUT RELATIVE
EQUALITIES OF DIFFERENT COMBINATIONS OF PACKAGES. SOLVE RESULTING
EQUALITIES FOR BENEFIT SCORES.
? BENEFIT SCORES
REPRESENT ACCUMULATED BENEFIT OVER THE PROGRAM PERIOD
- ARE ASSIGNED INDEPENDENT OF COSTS
- WHEN COMBINED WITH COSTS, ALLOW INTERLEAVING OF PACKAGES ACROSS
FUNCTIONAL AREAS
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LESSONS LEARNED FROM TEST CASE
? ZBB PACKAGE DESCRIPTIONS ARE OFTEN INADEQUATE TO ANSWER QUESTIONS
OF MISSION EXPERTS
? PROGRAM MANAGERS SHOULD BE REPRESENTED AT ALL MEETINGS
? WE NOW BETTER UNDERSTAND HOW TO CONDUCT MEETINGS
41 COMPUTER SUPPORT IS USEFUL IN STRUCTURING PAIRWISE COMPARISONS
? AMOUNT OF TIME INVOLVED IN MEETINGS IS SIGNIFICANT. ESTIMATES
BASED ON TEST ARE:
MISSIONS EXPERTS: 4-8 PERSONS X 1-1/2 DAYS PER FUNCTIONAL AREA
- PROGRAM MANAGER REPS: 3 PERSONS X 7-1/2 DAYS* PER FUNCTIONAL AREA
- ICS**: 2 PERSONS X 7-1/2 DAYS* PER FUNCTIONAL AREA
*7-1/2 DAYS REPRESENTS 1-1/2 DAYS FOR EACH OF 5 MISSION AREAS .
**EXCLUDES PREPARATION TIME FOR OVERVIEW AND ISSUE PAPERS. ESTIMATE FOR THESE IS
2 PERSONS X 4 WEEKS PER FUNCTIONAL AREA.
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PROPOSAL FOR FY 83-87 PROGRAM REVIEW
ei EVALUATE TWO FUNCTIONAL AREAS
- IMAGERY
- ELINT
41 AGAINST FIVE MISSION AREAS
- I&W/CRISIS MANAGEMENT
- MILITARY OPERATIONAL PLANNING AND FORCE EMPLOYMENT
- MILITARY WEAPONS R&D AND PROCUREMENT
- TREATY MONITORING
- FOREIGN POLICY FORMULATION AND INTERNATIONAL NEGOTIATIONS
? PRODUCING
- AN ISSUE PAPER ON EACH FUNCTIONAL AREA SUMMARIZING MISSION
EXPERTS' JUDGMENTS '
- RANKINGS OF PACKAGES AT RISK TO BE USED DURING PROGRAM AND
BUDGET REVIEW
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- '
TIME REQUIRED OF MISSION EXPERTS
^ REVIEW OF OVERVIEW PAPER
- APPROXIMATELY 2 DAYS* FOR EACH MISSION EXPERT DURING LATE JUNE
^ MEETINGS TO ASSESS BENEFITS
- APPROXIMATELY 3 DAYS** FOR EACH MISSION EXPERT DURING
30 JUNE - 10 JULY
41 REVIEW OF ISSUE PAPER
- APPROXIMATELY 2 DAYS* FOR EACH MISSION EXPERT DURING LATE JULY
*1 DAY FOR EACH FUNCTIONAL AREA
**1 1/2 DAYS FOR EACH FUNCTIONAL AREA
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QUESTIONS
? HOW FAMILIAR WILL I&W MISSION EXPERTS BE WITH THE ORGANIZATIONS
AND SYSTEMS DISCUSSED IN PACKAGE DESCRIPTIONS?
? HOW MANY I&W/CRISIS MANAGEMENT EXPERTS SHOULD BE INVOLVED IN THE
PROCESS?
? WOULD YOU ENDORSE PARTICIPATION OF THE I&W WORKING GROUP?
41 WHO WOULD YOU SUGGEST WE INCLUDE AS EXPERTS IN OTHER MISSION AREAS?
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