APPROACHES TO CONGRESS ON ESTIMATES OF SOVIET STRENGTH

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP01-01773R000300110012-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 23, 2007
• Sequence Number: 12
• Publication Date: March 11, 1957
• Content Type: MEMO

roved For Release 2007/02/28: CIA-RDPO1-01773R000300110012-7
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ER 9-1412
11 March 1957
MEMORANDUM FOR: The Director
SUBJECT: Approaches to Congress on Estimates of
Soviet Strength
1. This memorandum contains a recommendation for action in
paragraph 5.
2. Recent information, including magazine and newspaper articles,
indicates that there is a great deal of confusion on the subject of estimates
of Soviet air strength. Various public statements, and possibly leaks, are
being used to their own respective ends by proponents and opponents of
increased expenditures for the Air Force program. We are informed (and
I am trying to get more information on this) that Mr. Whitten and other
members of the Appropriations Committee assume that estimates of Soviet
BISON strength were inflated last year for the purpose of getting additional
appropriations for our own military forces. On the other hand, Stewart
Alsop has taken the line that the downward revisions of the BISON estimates
have been made more or less at the direction of the policy makers who are
seeking to hold down government expenditures. The fact that neither of
these assumptions is true seems somehow to be lost in the shuffle. ID
3. In these circumstances it seems clear that responsible com-
mittees should be given a thorough briefing on these, and possibly other
estimates, in the near future. The Director will recall that Senator
Saltonstall recently advised him to send a written memorandum on the
subject of the BISON estimates to Senator Russell, with copies to Senators
Saltonstall and Symington. We have not yet had any specific requests from
House Appropriations, but we are likely to have our, budget hearings in the
near future and the question of the validity of and basis for our estimates
will almost certainly come up at that time.
4. The Director has now received two recent memoranda on this
subject. One is an amplification, dated 7 March 1957, of the material
previously given to General Goodpaster on 1 March 1957. Another is a
chronology of events, dated 9 March 1957, which covers pertinent dates
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and events going back to 1953. The Director will note from this memo-
randum that the supplemental Air Force appropriation , which was the
subject of a recent article in U.S. News and World Report, was passed
on 29 June 1956. Congress adjourned on 27 July 1956, and the revised
NIE was approved on 2 August 1956.
5. On the basis of a quick reading of the material thus far prepared,
it is recommended that the Director abandon the idea of distributing written
memoranda on the subject of the BISON estimates. The story is somewhat
complicated, and if it had to be simplified to make it completely under-
standable reading, without the opportunity for clarifying questions and
answers, we feel that it might create unfavorable impressions as to the
quality of the information on which national estimates are based. It is
therefore recommended that the Director plan to present an oral briefing
in the near future to Senator Russell and such members of the full Armed
Services Committee as he deems appropriate. The range of such a
briefing will have to be determined by the Director, although I think it is
safe to assume that he will get questions on missiles as well as manned
aircraft strength.
Orman S. Paul
Legislative Counsel
CONCUR:
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Date
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