WEEKLY SUMMARY PORTUGUESE GUINEA: REBELS

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06954163
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: July 13, 2023
• Document Release Date: November 7, 2022
• Case Number: F-2018-01460
• Publication Date: February 16, 1973

Approved for Release: 2022/09/21 C06954163
Secret
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
WEEKLY SUMMARY
16 February February 1973
No. 0357/73
Copy N2 42
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The WEEKLY SUMMARY, issued every Friday morning by
the Office of Current Intelligence, reports and analyzes signif-
icant developments of the week through noon on Thursday.
It frequently includes material coordinated with or prepared
by the Office of Economic Research, the Office of Strategic
Research, and the Directorate of Science and Technology.
Topics requiring more comprehensive treatment and there-
fore published separately as Special Reports are listed in the
contents.
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CONTENTS (16 February 1973)
FAR EAST
EUROPE
1 The Money Markets
3 France: Europe Mulls Election
4 The Indochina Story
10 USSR: Breaking the Ice
11 Sparring Over Spitzbergen
12 Paying the Piper
13 Trade Negotiations: Tough Task
13 Yugoslavia: Trimming the Top
14 European Labor: New Club
15 Iceland: Timely Reminder
MIDDLE EAST
AFRICA
WESTERN
HEMISPHERE
SPECIAL
REPORT
SECRET
17 Fedayeen: The Unkindest Cuts
18 Egypt: Questions Few Answers
zu t.arion: tsongo comes or Ar
21 Portuguese Guinea: Rebels
22 Pakistan: Pressure on Wali
23 Uruguay: Bordaberry Gives In
24 Paraguay: Stroessner Wins
25 Dominican Republic: Calmer
26 Argentina: Prospects Dimming
27 Peru: Mercado Moves In
27 Andean Pact: Sixth Member
France: The Race Is On
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PORTUGUESE GUINEA: FIERCER REBELS
Ye.k more aggressive insurgent movement may
emerge from the assassination of rebel leader
Amilcar Cabral. Guinean President Toure, in
whose country the Portuguese Guinea rebels are
based, is trying to steer the movement in that
directiori)
\ _Before his assassination, the pragmatic
Cabral had devoted much attention to cultivating
support among non-Communist states in the hope
that his independent government, when formed,
would receive broad backing. The effort had met
with some success. If the new leadership were to
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adopt a harsher ideological stance or closer ties to
its Communist supporters, it would jeopardize
those gains]
- ,Aristide Pereira, the provisional rebel leader,
lacks the prestige and forcefulness to counter
Toure's guidance, which may be one reason he
was chosen. Pereira, who is a mulatto as was
Cabral, cannot be expected to heal the deep racial
divisions within the movement. He may be no
more than a temporary compromise until a
stronger figure with wider support emerges�pos-
sibly one of the more successful military com-
manders. This could take some time.,
One of the first concerns of those now
guiding the rebel movement is to demonstrate its
continued viability. That was the purpose of a
rebel communique issued on 10 February, claim-
ing insurgent forces launched sweeping offensive
military operations inside Portuguese Guinea
beginning in late JanuarThe rebels, no doubt,
,would like to mount a more dramatic action,
something big enough to capture international
attention and reassure foreign supporters of insur-
gent capabilities and will to persevere. Hence, the
more aggressive posture toward which Toure is
pushing the rebels may first become evident
through military action. On the political side, the
communique said that preparations are being
made for the first meeting of the national assem-
bly elected late last year. No date was given,
however, and the meeting is not expected soon.j
IToure prob-
ably would like to see fewer insurgents in Guinea,
in part for his own security reasons. Moreover, he
probably will allow those who remain less opera-
tional freedom than was the case before Cabral's
death.
PAKISTAN: PRESSURE ON WALI
, President Bhutto has used the recent dis-
covery of clandestine arms in the Iraqi Embassy
in Islamabad as an excuse for his strongest action
so far against the opposition National Awami
Party of Wali Khan. On 15 February he removed
the provincial governors in Baluchistan and the
Northwest Frontier�the two provinces Wall's
party controls; Bhutto has imposed direct rule in
Baluchistan.
On 10 February
raided the Iraqi tmbassy, seizing several
hundred Soviet-made automatic weapons and
thousands of rounds of ammunition. Just what
the Iraqis intended to do with the arms has not
yet become clear, but the most likely of several
possibilities is that they were destined for dis-
sident tribes in Iranian Baluchistan. The Shah's
recurrent efforts to stimulate trouble among Iraqi
Kurdish minority may well have led Baghdad to
try to repay the Iranians in kind.
Officials of Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party
have charged that the National Awami Party was
planning to make the two frontier provinces
independent and that it was plotting direct action
against the central government. The National
Awami Party denied any involvement and charged
that Bhutto's party had been fomenting the
recent tribal unrest in Baluchistan Province.
The major real issue for the government may
be opposition to provisions in the proposed con-
stitution which the National Awami Party claims
unduly limit provincial autonomy. The gov-
ernment has the votes to adopt the constitution
in the session which begins on 17 February, but
may hope to limit the impact of National Awami
Party arguments�especially in the frontier prov-
inces�by tying the party to treason and foreign
conspirators.
In the past year there have been a number of
confrontations between President Bhutto and the
National Awami Party. All were resolved at the
last minute, but Bhutto is acting with less caution
this time.
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