CRASH OF TWA 800

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06947878
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: July 13, 2023
• Document Release Date: August 19, 2022
• Case Number: F-2020-01828

12-0
pproved for Release. 2022/06/23 C06947878
StCHET
(b)(
(b)(3)
3)
STUDIES IN
INTELLIGENCE
Solving the Mystery of the
'Missile Sightings.'
THE CRASH OF TWA FLIGHT 800.
/
)(3)
3)
(b)(3)
b)(3)
(b
(b)
(b
ccr,roc-r
Approved for Release: 2022/06/23 C06947878
)(3)
Approved for Release: 2022/06/23 C06947878
Approved for Release: 2022/06/23 C06947878
12-
Approved for Release: 2022/06/23 C06947878
SECRET
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
INTELLIGENCE TODAY AND TOM5)(3)0W
Solving the Mystery of the "Missile Sightings"
The Crash of TWA Flight 800 (U) 1
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
Approved for Release: 2022/06/23 C06947878
12-000d0.
�
STUDIES IN INTELLIGENCE Approved for Release: 2022/06/23 C06947878
(b)(3)
�SECRET/MI�
Solving the Mystery of the "Missile Sightings"
The Crash of TWA Flight 800
66
Capt. David McClaine of
Eastwind Airlines,
piloting a Boeing 737
commuter flight near the
coast of Long Island, had
just become the first
recorded eyewitness to
one of the most deadly
and mysterious
commercial air crashes
in US aviation history.
99
is a senior
weapons analyst in the Directorate
of Intelligence. He received the
Intelligence Medal of Merit for his
participation in the work described
in this article.
"We just saw an explosion out here
on Stinger Bee five oh seven."'
It was Wednesday, 17 July 1996,
8:31:51 p.m. Capt. David McClaine
of Eastwind Airlines, piloting a Boe-
ing 737 commuter flight near the
coast of Long Island, had just
become the first recorded eyewit-
ness to one of the most deadly and
mysterious commercial air crashes
in US aviation history. It would be
almost a minute before the impor-
tance of what McClaine had seen
would become clear to the Boston
air traffic controller with whom he
was speaking.
8:31:57: "Stinger Bee five oh seven,
I'm sorry. I missed it. Ah, you're on
eighteen. Did you say something
else?"
8:32:01: "We just saw an explosion
up ahead of us here something [like'
about sixteen thousand feet [alti-
tude] or something like that. It just
went down�to the water."
Within seconds, other pilots in the
vicinity corroborated McClaine's
observation.
8:32:25: "Boston, Virgin zero zero
nine..! can confirm that, out of my,
my nine o'clock position, we just
had an ex... it looked like an explo-
sion about five miles away, six miles
away."
Up and down the coast of Long
Island, and from vantage points as
far as 40 miles away in Connecti-
cut, beachgoers, pleasure boaters,
construction workers, diners, and
others made similar sightings. And
from more than 22,000 miles over-
head, a military satellite had
detected heat from something in
the vicinity.
But it would be hours, sometimes
days or weeks, before these obser-
vations would be assimilated into
the official record. For now, the
scope of what had happened was
unfolding before a very few.
8:32:56 "TWA eight hundred, kalif
Center."
It was now 65 seconds after
McClaine's first sighting. The con-
troller at Boston Air Route Traffic
Control Center, coordinating the
flights of the dozen or so aircraft in
the vicinity, had noticed one was
missing from his radar screen. In a
professional but increasingly urgent
tone, the controller was trying to
elicit a response.
8:33:04: "TWA eight hundred,
Center."
TWA Flight 800, a Boeing 747
jumbo jet, had departed New York's
John F. Kennedy airport 14 min-
utes earlier. It was en route to Paris
with 230 passengers and crew. In
his last contact with Boston Center
at 8:30:17, Capt. Ralph Kevorkian, a
pilot with 21 years experience fly-
ing for TWA, acknowledged
clearance from the Boston Center
controller to climb to 15,000 feet.
But now the plane was nowhere to
be seen.
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
�SEeRETI1X4� 1
Approved for Release: 2022/06/23 C06947878
(b)(3)
12-00000 STUDIES IN INTELLIGENCE Approved for Release: 2022/06/23 C06947878
(b)(3)
�SECREThItl�
TWA Flight 800
8:33:09: "TWA eight hundred, if
you bear Center identfibl."
The Boston controller was becom-
ing increasingly uneasy, as were
pilots in the area.
8:33:36, from Alitalia 609: "...just
for your information, sir, we are
just overhead the explosion, right
overhead at this time."
8:33:48, from McClaine: "Stinger
Bee, ah, Boston, we are directly over
the site where that airplane or what-
ever it was just exploded and went
into the water"
8.34:01, from Boston Center: "Roger
that. Thank you very much, sir,
we're investigating that right now.
TWA eight hundred, Center. TWA
eight zero zero, ifyou bear Center,
ident."
8:35:36, again from Boston: "TWA
eight hundred, Center."
The gravity of the situation was
now evident to all in the small
group privy to the interchange that
had be un four minutes earlier.
8:35:43, from McClaine: "I think
that was him."
8:35:45, from Boston: "I think so."
8:35:48, from McClaine: "God bless
him."
CIA Participation
The crash of TWA Flight 800,
potentially one of the most lethal
international terrorist acts ever per-
petrated against the United States,
touched off the most extensive,
complex, and costly air disaster
investigation in US history. Had it
been the result of state-sponsored
terrorism, it would have been con-
sidered an act of war.
FBI and National Transportation
Safety Board (NTSB) investigators
almost immediately focused on
three possible causes: a bomb, a
missile, or a mechanical failure. The
missile theory seemed particularly
plausible because of reports from
dozens of eyewitnesses in the Long
Island area who, on the evening of
17 July, recalled seeing something
resembling a flare or firework
ascend and culminate in an explo-
sion.
Because of the possibility that inter-
national terrorists may have been
involved, the FBI requested CIA's
assistance. In accordance with the
National Security Act of 1947 and
Executive Order 12333, the CIA
responded to the FBI's request
within 24 hours of the crash. This
support consisted primarily of help
from the Counterterrorist Center in
the Directorate of Operations and
from a small group of analysts,
including myself, in the Office of
Weapons, Technology and Prolifer-
ation (now the Office of
Transnational Issues, or OTI) in the
Directorate of Intelligence. Follow-
ing a preliminary review of radar
and satellite data, the OTI analysts
focused on detailed analysis of eye-
witness statements provided by the
FBI. After eight months of work,
they concluded with confidence
and full substantiation that the eye-
witnesses had not seen a missile.
On 28 March 1997, CIA's Deputy
Director for Intelligence sent a
memorandum to FBI Assistant
Director James Kallstrom summariz-
ing the results: (b)(3)
Our analysis demonstrates that
the eyewitness sightings of great-
est concern to us�the ones
originally interpreted to be of a
possible missile attack�took place
after the first of several explo-
sions aboard the
aircraft... combined with the total
absence of physical evidence of a
missile attack [this] leads CIA
analysts to conclude that no such
attack occurred.
These findings also were docu-
mented in an unclassified video
produced with the aid of anima-
tion experts and the Directorate of
Intelligence's Video/Multimedia
Production Center.'
The FBI and others involved in the
investigation ultimately concurred
with the CIA's conclusions. On 18
November 1997, Kallstrom aired the
CIA video in its entirety during a
national news conference announc-
ing the suspension of the
worldwide criminal probe:3
We feel very, very comfortable
that what [the CIA] videotape por-
trays is very close.. to what
happened. The tape was made to
explain, first to [the FBI], and
then to the public, and the fami-
lies, and the naysayers... and
anyone else out there�the aero-
nautical engineers�what these
244 people saw. What :Is the
explanation? If they didn't see a
missile, what could they have
seen? All 244 witnesses saw events
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
2 �SECRET/Mr
Approved for Release: 2022/06/23 C06947878
(b)(3)
12-00000 STUDIES IN INTELLIGENCE Approved for Release: 2022/06/23 C06947878
(b)(3)
that happened after�after�the
CenterfUel tank blew up. So they
did not see a missile attacking the
plane.
�FBI Assistant Director James K. Kall-
sworn, The Tutentieth Ceram", With Mike
Wallace. 3 October 1998
Assembling Information
The sources of information used by
CIA analysts ultimately included
FBI summaries of statements from
the 244 eyewitnesses, some con-
taining sight and sound
observations, and most containing
information that could be used to
determine the locations of eyewit-
nesses at the time of the crash;
Delorme Version 4.0 Street Atlas
USA commercial mapping soft-
ware; two sets of radar tracking
data (one from a radar at 'ship,
Long Island, providing data sam-
pled once every 4.6 seconds, the
,other from a radar at Riverhead,
Long Island, providing data sam-
pled once every 12.0 seconds);
meteorological data (winds aloft);
infrared (heat) data from a US mili-
tary satellite; the precise times at
which the cockpit voice recorder
(:CV10.and night data recorder
(FDR) ceased operating; the air-
craft's location, altitude, speed, and
heading at the moment the CVR
and FDR ceased operating; the
NTSB observation that an abrupt
sound was recorded just before the
CVR ceased operating; and the
NTSB observation that no other
unusual activity was recorded on
either the CVR or FDR.
4.
Eyewitness locations (CIA graphic).
-SECRET-RH-
TWA Flight 800
Its
� Explosion
'A lot of people saw things in the sky. .4nd a lot of people saw what we think is the
same thing. Those witnesses, they're good people, and they told us what //Ay saw."
�FBI Assistant Director James K. Kallstryon Dateline NBC, 14 March /997
Because Flight 800's radar tran-
sponder, CVR, and FUR ceased
operating the instant the aircraft
exploded, the altitude history of the
aircraft from that time until it hit the
water was not known.4 It was also
unknown how long this took.
Radar data showed only the hori-
zontal motion of the plane after it
exploded, and this only crudely.
But we did know the precise loca-
tion of the plane when it exploded,
including its altitude (13,800 feet).
As it turned out, this information
and the fact that the explosion was
extraordinarily loud would prove
crucial in solving the mystery of the
eyewitness "missile sightings.'
The Eyewitness Accounts
Although some eyewitness sum-
mary reports proved more useful
than others, all were analyzed in ,
painstaking detail, a process that
took over a year and entailed more
than 2,000 man-hours of work.
When conducting our research, we
went to places where large num-
bers of eyewitnesses had been, and
also visited specific vantage points
of important eyewitnesses. At sev-
eral of these locations, videotape
templates were made to use in our
analysis and to provide accurate
backdrops for selected scenes in
our video.
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
-SECREThiX4- 3
Approved for Release: 2022/06/23 C06947878
(b)(3)
12-00000 STUDIES IN INTELLIGENC8 Approved for Release: 2022/06/23 C06947878
shunt iiX1�
(b)(3)
TWA Flight 800
On the whole, the eyewitnesses
provided remarkably detailed
descriptions that were surprisingly
consistent. The crash scenario
depicted in the video was the result
of the composite analysis of all the
eyewitness reports provided to us
by the FBI.
Most eyewitnesses were about 10
to 12 miles from where the plane
first exploded. The statements var-
ied, but many shared common
characteristics:
� A patron outside a local restau-
rant reported seeing what
appeared to be a "shooting star"
that grew into an oblong ball of
flames that fell from the sky. After
the flames fell out of sight behind
the sand dunes, he heard two
"bangs" that sounded like fire-
works in the distance.
� A patron at a local yacht club
reported seeing what appeared to
be a boat flare ascend for several
seconds, expand into a much
larger fireball, then split into two
"smoky trails" which dropped
toward the ocean. She then heard
deep rumbling sounds.
� A patron at a local marina
reported seeing an orange flare
rise in the sky and then come
down a little before exploding
into "two pieces." She reported
that the explosion occurred about
10 seconds after she first saw the
flare in the sky.
� Two observers near the ocean
reported seeing an ascending
flare that exploded into an orange
fireball, then descended in "two
large flaming chunks" to the
66
On the whole, the
eyewitnesses provided
remarkably detailed
descriptions that were
surprisingly consistent.
99
ocean's surface. They both
reported hearing a "deep thunder-
ous rumble."
� A passenger on a plane reported
seeing "a small, flare-like projec-
tile traveling in an east-
northeasterly direction" appear in
the sky seemingly out of
nowhere. It seemed to be ascend-
ing, then culminated in a small
explosion, followed by a much
larger fireball, which appeared to
descend toward the water.
� A passenger on a different plane
reported seeing an "orange-white
flare" ascend, then "bulge" and
descend. She likened the ascent
and descent to that of a roller-
coaster, with the ascent ending in
a "big bang," followed by the
descent.
Several eyewitnesses made it clear
that they had seen only the latter
stages of the disaster:
� One observer in a beachfront
condominium reported that he
saw a fireball, which separated
into two fireballs that fell into the
ocean. Immediately after the fire-
balls hit the water, he heard loud
sounds.
� A woman on the beach reported
seeing a fiery object falling in two
main pieces to the water's sur-
face, followed about four seconds
later by a rumbling sound.
� An observer on a small boat
reported seeing what at first
appeared to be a "shooting star,"
moving in a "downward, 45-
degree sloping arc." He then real-
ized he was observing a burning
aircraft. He saw one wing sepa-
rate from the fuselage, and a large
"fire trail" of burning fuel erupt.
Just as the wing separated, he
heard a loud "concussion" sound.
The burning plane and wing then
quickly dropped to the water's
surface. (Of all the known eyewit-
nesses on the land and water, this
person was the closest.)
The most useful reports proved to
be those that related observations
to specific events in either space or
time. For example, an eyewitness
report of a loud sound "after the
fireballs hit the water" was less use-
ful than one of a loud sound "about
four seconds after the fireballs hit
the water." An eyewitness descrip-
tion of "a flare-like object rising
over the ocean" was less useful
than a similar description that refer-
enced identifiable landmarks along
the beach. An airline passenger's
report of a "flare-like object" was
less useful than a similar passenger
report that included the observa-
tion that the flare-like object
appeared in the sky about 10 sec-
onds after a small aircraft flew
under the plane on which the
observer was traveling.
A few eyewitness reports proved
particularly useful. One of the most
valuable was from the eyewitness
in the beachfront condominium,
even though his observations
began well after Flight 800 first
exploded. His report of loud
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
4 �gECRETIAH�
Approved for Release: 2022/06/23 C06947878
(b)(3)
12-00060
STUDIES IN INTELLIGENCE
.-
Approved for Release: 2022/06/23 C06947878
(b)(3)
sounds just after the fireballs hit the
water made it possible to calculate
the elapsed time from when the
plane first exploded to when it hit
the water. From radar data and
onboard recordings, we knew
where the plane was when it first
exploded. Because we also knew
where the observer was located, it
was possible to calculate how long
it took sound to travel from the
explosion to the observer (49 sec-
onds). So his statement established
that the aircraft exploded about 49
seconds before it hit the water.
Another excellent eyewitness on
the land, whose observations began
early and included several identifi-
able reference points, reported that
he watched a white light, perhaps a
firework, traveling upward at a
steep angle with respect to the
horizon. The light "zig-zagged" as it
rose, and at the apex of its travel
"arched over" and disappeared.
This observation lasted about 15
seconds. Two or three seconds
later, a fireball appeared in the sky
near where the white light had dis-
appeared.
The eyewitness specified a land-
mark�a house near the beach�
over which the white light first
appeared and a second house
behind which the descending fire-
ball disappeared. We determined
precisely where the eyewitness was
standing, and then measured the
line-of-sight angle between the eye-
witness and each of the two
houses.
Calculations based on the flight
�path of Flight 800 with respect to
this eyewitness show that when the
66
The key to solving the
mystery of the "missile
sightings" was the use of
sound-propagation
analysis...
99
aircraft first exploded, it was just
passing over the house above
which the white light first
appeared. So the white light the
eyewitness described probably was
the aircraft briefly ascending and
arching over after it exploded,
rather than a missile attacking the
aircraft.
This eyewitness's visual observa-
tions were consistent with the
aircraft's known horizontal motion
during the 49 seconds which
elapsed after the onboard record-
ings ended. Radar data show that
during this time the aircraft trav-
eled about 15 degrees from right to
left with respect to this eyewitness
�placing it near where the eyewit-
ness claimed the fireball
disappeared, behind the second
house.
A third important eyewitness was
the one in the small boat. Based on
his location with respect to where
the plane was when it first
exploded, analysts were able to cal-
culate that the concussion sound
took 42 seconds to reach him. So
we knew that the wing separation
he observed took place about 42
seconds after the explosion that
ended the onboard recordings.
The two distinct trails of fire he
described, produced as the plane
and wing dropped to the water's
surface, were observed by many
eyewitnesses and often were
�SECRET/MI�
TWA Fllght 800
described as appearing immedi-
ately after the "flare-like object"
considered by some to be a possi-
ble missile. But because the trail of
fire from the flare-like object culmi-
nated in this second explosion, the
flare-like object cannot have caused
the explosion that ended the
onboard recordings�that is, the
first explosion. It cannot have been,
as some have suggested, a missile
attack.
Explaining the "Missile
Sightings"
The key to solving the mystery of
the "missile sightings" was the use
of sound-propagation analysis to
establish that eyewitnesses who
appeared to have seen a missile
"streak up" and cause the plane to
explode could not have seen such
an occurrence. Once it was estab-
lished that the aircraft exploded
about 49 seconds before it hit the
water and that one wing detached
(producing two discrete fireballs)
about seven seconds before water
impact, we could be confident that
eyewitnesses describing "streaks"
that began just a few seconds
before the appearance of the two
fireballs could not be describing a
missile approaching an intact air-
craft. 5 The plane had exploded
before their observations began.
What they were seeing was a trail
of burning fuel coming from the
aircraft. Nonetheless, some eyewit-
nesses interpreted the "streak"
produced by the burning fuel as a
possible missile. This interpretation
no doubt was reinforced in their
minds when the streak suddenly
culminated in an explosion.
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
�SECRE-THX1� 5
Approved for Release: 2022/06/23 C06947878
(b)(3)
12-00000 STUDIES IN INTELLIGENCE Approved for Release: 2022/06/23 C06947878
tCR= 1//k
(b)(3)
TWA Flight 800
Other descriptions from eyewit-
nesses who for whatever reason
did not report hearing sounds sup-
ported this conclusion. For
example, a passenger on USAir
Flight 217 reported seeing an air-
craft fly under him, 10 seconds
before the appearance of "a small,
flare-like projectile traveling in an
east-northeasterly direction." Radar
tracking of Flight 217 and the small
aircraft�later confirmed to be a
Navy P-3 Orion�shows that he first
saw the flare-like object at about
the time Flight 800's CVR detected
an onboard explosion. He also
specified where the flare-like object
first appeared, .which coincided
with Flight 800's location when it
exploded. And his statement that
the flare-like object was traveling in
an east-northeasterly direction
agrees with the direction that Flight
800 is known to have been travel-
ing when it exploded. So the flare-
like object he saw almost certainly
was Flight 800 just after it
exploded, not a missile.
Another factor corroborating this
theory was that eyewitnesses who
suspected that they had watched a
missile destroy an aircraft were
puzzled that they had not actually
seen the aircraft before the missile
hit it. Considering the lighting con-
ditions at the time�just at sunset�
the airliner should have been visi-
ble to any observer witnessing a
missile approach it. But if burning
fuel from the crippled aircraft was
what they were seeing�rather than
a missile streak�there would be no
se arate aircraft to see.
Reconstructed wreckage, Calvenon, Long Island. 6 February 1997 (CIA photo).