LIBERIA: MONROVIA LIKELY TO FALL SLOWLY

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06861716
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: March 9, 2023
• Document Release Date: September 3, 2020
• Case Number: F-2017-02018
• Publication Date: June 22, 1990

Approved for Release: 2020/09/01 C06861716
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22 June 1990
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(b)(3)
Contents
(b)(1)
Poland: Solidarity Showdown Looming
2
(b)(3)
(b)(1)
EC: Preview of Dublin Summit
4
(b)(3)
Notes
USSR: Moscow Losing Ground on Republic Sovereignty
5
(b)(1)
(b)(3)
Germanys: Making Progress on All-German Election
7
Hungary: Debate Over Presidential Referendum
7
(b)(1)
Sri Lanka: Government Regaining Control
8
(b)(3)
(b)(1)
USSR: Paper Shortages Spur Charges of Censorship
9
(b)(3)
In Brief
10
Special Analyses
Eastern Europe: West European and Japanese Aid
11
Japan-US: Alliance Under Stress But Holding
13
Liberia: Monrovia Likely To Fall Slowly
15
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(b)(3)
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Military Situation, 21 June 1990
Chaos Likely To Ensue in Monrovia
_The lack of an extensive tactical communications system and indiscipline among new recruits
will make it increasingly difficult for the rebel leadership to control and coordinate operations as
the insurgents enter the capital. Rebels probably will engage in atrocities against Krahns and
Mandingos as well as random looting and killing. If Doe decides to hold out at the Executive
Mansion and a pitched battle occurs, a high level of damage is almost certain. There probably
will be a lengthy period of chaos; tribal killings and retributions are likely to continue as the
rebels avenge army atrocities against their Gio and Mano ethnic kinsmen.
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22 June 1990
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(b)(3)
Special Analysis
LIBERIA: Monrovia Likely To Fall Slowly
The rebels' takeover of Careysburg yesterday presages their offensive
to take Monrovia, but they probably will continue approaching targets
cautiously and may spend several weeks trying to wear down the army
and force President Doe's departure.
The insurgents probably have 1,500 to 2,000 troops along thc
Firestone�ICalcata�Bong Town axis outside the capital.
heavy rebel traffic between Gbarnga and Monrovia this
week, indicating some of the estimated 3,000 rebel troops in Bong
and Nimba Counties probably are moving toward the capital, but
logistic and command difficulties are likely to slow thenil
The army's fighting capacity continues to decline, even though the
recent lull apparently has temporarily boosted the troops' morale, and
they may offer sporadic resistance. Of the nearly 2,800 soldiers in the
capital, only 750 are expected to
fight; of them, 500 are likely to remain on guard at the Executive
Mansion. Even these elite troops may scatter if their commanders
flee
Rebel leader Charles Taylor probably feels compelled to make good
his boast last week to take Monrovia in 24 hours if the peace talks set
to resume on Monday. in Sierra Leone break down. His troops �
reportedly are eager to push on. Taylor probably will attack lightly
defended intermediate targets such as Careysburg while moving
forward reserve troops from Nimba County. Potential targets on
Monrovia's outskirts include Camp Schieffelin, Paynesville, and the (b)(1)
government's radio station. Schieffelin and Paynesville have less than
125 and 90 troops, respectively, and the (b)(3)
radio station probably is lightly guarded.
(b)(3)
The rebels probably realize they lack the discipline and troop strength
for a conventional attack against large armed contingents at the
Executive Mansion, Barclay Training Center, or the Coast Guard
base in Monrovia's Free Port. Instead they are likely to approach the
capital in small groups frOin Firestone in the east, Careysburg in the
northeast, and Bong Town in,the northwest.
The insurgents probably can move fairly easily into the outskirts,
where they can successfully engage'any army contingent that comes
out to oppose them. the insurgents
have infiltrated the capital and probably have laid much of the
groundwork for the main forces. They probably count on scoring
psychological victories by capturing key installations�the non, oil
refinery, and electric company
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