INCREASING CONCERN OF PRESIDENT JAGDEO ABOUT THE JANUARY 2001 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06848447
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: March 9, 2023
• Document Release Date: June 29, 2021
• Case Number: F-2019-00845
• Publication Date: June 6, 2000

Approved for Release: 2021/06/28 C06848447
R 060152Z JUN 00
FM CIA
S RET NOFORN
CITE CIA 918750
SERIAL:
PASS:
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
WARNING: INFORMATION REPORT, NOT FINALLY EVALUATED INTELLIGENCE
REPORT CLASS Sy..E T--NOFORN
DIST: 5 JUNE 2000
COUNTRY: GUYANA
SUBJ: INCREASING CONCERN OF PRESIDENT JAGDEO ABOUT THE JANUARY 2001
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
DOI:
SOT _MCP.
SUMMARY: NONE
TEXT. 1 GUyANESE PRESIDENT BHARRAT WAGDE01) COMMENTED
THAT HE HAD A GROWING SENSE OF UNEASE REGARDING THE GUYANESE
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SCHEDULED FOR 17 JANUARY 2001. JAGDEO AND HIS
PRINCIPAL ADVISOR WITHIN THE RULING PEOPLE'S PROGRESSIVE PARTY (PPP), GENERAL
SECRETARY DONALD ((RAMOTAR)), BELIEVED THAT THE PPP STANDS A VERY REAL
CHANCE OF LOSING THE ELECTION TO THE PEOPLE'S NATIONAL CONGRESS (PNC)
CANDIDATE AND FORMER PRESIDENT DESMOND ((HOYTE)). JAGDEO'S CONCERNS WERE
BASED ON HIS BELIEF THAT THE GUYANESE ECONOMY WOULD CONTINUE TO PERFORM
POORLY AND THAT THE PPP WAS SUFFERING FROM SERIOUS INTERNAL DIVISIONS.
2. JAGDEO ADDED THAT HE WAS VERY WORRIED ABOUT THE POSSIBLE OUTBREAK OF
VIOLENCE IN GUYANA SHOULD THE PPP WIN THE ELECTION. JAGDEO EXPRESSED
CONCERN OVER HOYTE'S INCREASINGLY BOISTEROUS CLAIMS THAT THE ONLY WAY THE
PNC COULD LOSE THE ELECTION WAS IF THE PPP STOLE IT FROM THEM, WHICH JAGDEO
SAID WAS CREATING AN EXPECTATION AMONG THE PNC'S RANK-AND-FILE THAT THEIR
VICTORY WAS ASSURED. JAGDEO WAS WORRIED THAT THIS EXPECTATION WILL ONLY
GROW AS THE ELECTION APPROACHES AND WILL LEAD TO A DANGEROUSLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONALLY, JAGDEO NOTED THAT HIS LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE IN
THE GUYANA DEFENSE FORCES' (GDF) ABILITY OR INTEREST IN CONTROLLING A
POSSIBLE OUTBREAK OF VIOLENCE WAS LOW. ALTHOUGH JAGDEO DID NOT BELIEVE
THE GDF WAS INTERESTED IN LAUNCHING A COUP OR SEIZING POWER IN THE WAKE
OF SERIOUS RIOTING IN GEORGETOWN, HE BELIEVED THE NEW LEADERSHIP IN THE GDF
MAY BE OPEN TO INFLUENCE BY THE PNC TO EITHER IGNORE POTENTIAL PNC
DEMONSTRATIONS SHOULD THE PPP WIN, OR TO SUPPRESS PPP DEMONSTRATIONS IF THE
PNC PROVES VICTORIOUS.
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3. JAGDEO AND RAMOTAR HAD DECIDED TO TAKE A WAIT-AND-SEE APPROACH FOR
THE TIME BEING BEFORE CHOOSING A SPECIFIC COURSE OF ACTION TO ADDRESS THEIR
CONCERNS. THIS DECISION WAS LARGELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT JAGDEO HAS A VERY
WEAK BASE OF SUPPORT WITHIN HIS OWN PARTY. JAGDEO NOTED THAT MUCH OF HIS
OWN LEGITIMACY CAME DIRECTLY FROM INFLUENCE WIELDED BY FORMER PRESIDENT
JANET ((JAGAN)) WITHIN THE PPP'S CENTRAL COMMITTEE. JAGDEO ADDED THAT, IF
JAGAN WERE TO PASS AWAY OR BECOME MEDICALLY INCAPACITATED, HIS VERY
CANDIDACY FOR THE PRESIDENCY WOULD BE IN JEOPARDY. JAGDEO BELIEVED THAT IN
SUCH A CASE, BOTH PPP EXECUTIVE MEMBER RALPH ((RAMKARRAN)) AND
INFORMATION MINISTER MOSES ((NAGAMOOT00)) WOULD MAKE OPEN BIDS WITHIN THE
PARTY TO UNSEAT HIM AS THE PPP'S PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE. THIS WEAKNESS HAD
SEVERELY HAMSTRUNG ANY EFFORTS JAGDEO COULD UNDERTAKE TO IMPROVE THE
GUYANESE ECONOMY OR TO TAKE l'HE MOMENTUM AWAY FROM HOYTE IN THE RUN-UP
TO THE ELECTION.
4. LASTLY, JAGDEO NOTED AN INCREASED LEVEL OF CORRUPTION AND INFLUENCE
PEDDLING THAT HAD OCCURRED IN ANTICIPATION OF THE ELECTION. ALTHOUGH HE DID
NOT OFFER FURTHER CLARIFICATION, JAGDEO STATED THAT HE HAD CONFIRMED THAT
INDIVIDUALS WITHIN BOTH PARTIES WERE RECEIVING MONEY FROM NARCOTICS
TRAFFICKERS. ADDITIONALLY, HE CLAIMED THAT HE HAD RELIABLE INFORMATION
THAT CHINA WAS PROVIDING FUNDS TO THE PNC (NH). CONCLUDING HIS COMMENTS ON
CORRUPTION, HE NOTED THAT HE COULD NOT GET THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE OF THE
PPP TO AGREE TO REMOVE POLICE COMMISSIONER LAURIE ((LEWIS)) FROM HIS POSITION
EVEN THOUGH LEWIS WAS WIDELY BELIEVED TO BE CORRUPT. JAGDEO NOTED THAT
NUMEROUS MEMBERS OF THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE VIGOROUSLY DEFENDED LEWIS,
SUGGESTING THAT THEY WERE INVOLVED IN LEWIS' ACTIVITIES OR WERE BEHOLDEN TO
HIM FOR PAST FAVORS.
POC:
WELCOME.
BT
COMMENTS, EVALUATIONS, AND REQUIREMENTS (b)(3)
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