FRENCH BRACE FOR HEAVY VIET MINH ATTACK IN WESTERN TONKIN

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06833268
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: July 13, 2023
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2022
• Case Number: F-2019-00487
• Publication Date: January 15, 1954

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COPY NO.
2479
oa NO.
15 January 1954
CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
WEEKLY
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
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SUMMARY OF CONTENTS
15 Jan 54
THE SOVIET WORLD Page 4
FRENCH BRACE FOR HEAVY VIET MINH ATTACK IN WESTERN
TONKIN Page 5
The French are uncertain of their ability to hold
Dien Bien Phu, their strongpoint in western Tonkin. They
believe that the Viet Minh will be ready to attack by
15 January but may merely contain the troops at Dien Bien
Phu and move south into Laos.
THE NEW BALANCE OF SINO-SOVIET INFLUENCE IN NORTH
KOREA Page 8
The strengthening of China's position in North Korea,
an area which was formerly Moscow's exclusive preserve,
could create a basis for possible Sino-Soviet friction,
but Moscow and Peiping appear to be developing a coordi-
nated program of support and control.
PROSPECTS FOR THE JORDAN RIVER DEVELOPMENT PLAN . . . . Page 11
Israel and the Arab states remain as opposed to the
Unified Plan for the development of the Jordan River
basin as when it was presented to them in December.
MANEUVERING WITHIN THE TOP SOVIET LEADERSHIP Page 14
Besides assuming public supremacy in the agricul-
tural sphere, Soviet party first secretary N. S. Khrushchev
has apparently increased his influence over top personnel
appointments. His continuing rise could seriously dis-
rupt the present collective leadership.
UNSATISFACTORY FOOD SITUATION IN EASTERN EUROPE
THREATENS NEW ECONOMIC POLICY Page 16
Two consecutive years of poor harvests in Eastern
Europe are posing serious difficulties for the Satellites'
"new economic policy."
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FRENCH BRACE FOR HEAVY VIET MINK ATTACK
IN WESTERN TONKIN
15 Jan 54
The.French are uncertain of their ability to hold Dien
Bien Phu, their strongpoint in western Tonkin, which is faced
with one of the largest concentrations of troops the Viet.
Minh has assembled in seven years of the war in Indochina. They
believe that the Viet Minh will be ready to attack by 15 January,
but may merely contain the French at Dien Bien Phu and move south
into Laos (see map, page 7).
Dien Bien Phu's garrison of
12 battalions plus supporting artillery is encircled by 18
battalions of the 308th and 316th Divisions and the 148th In-
dependent Regiment. Advance elements of the nine battalions of
the 312th Division have been moving westward and six battalions
were expected at Dien Bien Phu by 12 January. Four battalions
of light artillery from the 351st Artillery Division are also
approaching and can probably be in position by 15 January.
The French can reinforce their outpost only at the expense
of other areas, particularly the critical Tonkin delta, where
the mobile reserve has already been reduced from some 40 to 19
battalions
The French, however, who originally hoped to inflict a costly
defeat on the enemy, have shown considerable apprehension as
the numerical superiority of the Viet Minh has increased to
about two to one.
Dien Bien Phu is supplied wholly by air, and transport
flights now number from 70 to 100 daily. The French have been
concerned over reports that the Viet Minh now has 37mm antiair-
craft guns, but thus far these reports have not been confirmed.
However, there are believed to be four enemy antiaircraft com-
panies, equipped with 12.7mm machineguns, in the Dien Bien Phu
area, and the Viet Minh during the past two years has been in-
creasingly effective with these weapons against low-flying
transport and fighter aircraft. An additional factor is the
imminent arrival of the "crachin," the annual period of approx-
imately two months of fog and drizzle which will hamper flights
from the Tonkin delta.
The Viet Minh, unwilling to accept the heavy casualties
among its best divisions which a determined attack on Dien Bien
Phu would involve, may attempt merely to contain the garrison
there while sending the bulk of its forces southward against
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the royal capital of Luang Prabang or the French military post
at Xieng Khouang, both in northern Laos. Enemy reconnaissance
and stockpiling of rice to the west and southwest of Dien Bien
Phu point to the possibility that at least one Viet Minh
division may move south.
The Viet Minh is stronger logistically than during last
spring's invasion of Laos and would also be aided in a penetra-
tion of that country by a new supply route from Ban Leng, China,
southward to Laichau, which is expected to be usable by light
vehicles by the end of January.
In central Laos, meanwhile, the French have struck back at
the Viet Minh force of less than six battalions which reached
the Mekong River in late December. They claim to have inflicted
heavy casualties by ground and air attack on the enemy troops
now located some 20 miles northeast of Savannakhet.
The French have a preponderance of strength in this area
and the Viet Minh, even with perhaps three additional battalions
reportedly moving westward from Vinh, is not likely to attempt
a serious attack against the reinforced French positions. More
likely are attempts to continue the blocking of French lines of
communications along the Mekong, or a move north toward the Paksane-
Vientiane area, possibly in conjunction with an invasion into
northern Laos by the main Viet Minh force now in western Tonkin.
Combined with any of these moves, the Viet Minh could attempt
diversionary action in southern Laos,' as suggested by an uncon-
firmed report of 11 January that six enemy battalions were moving
in the direction of Attopeu from the Annam coast.
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Approved for Release: 2022/08/12 C06833268
d for Release. 2022/08/12 C06833268
Approved for Release: 2022/08/12 C06833268