RWANDA: RPF AT ODDS WITH INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06827350
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: March 9, 2023
• Document Release Date: November 13, 2020
• Case Number: F-2018-01308
• Publication Date: December 5, 1994

pproved for Release: 2020/10/29 C06827350
1
-Secret (Y1 icro
61)EC
Directorate of Intelligence
Africa Revie
5 December 1994
-zrri aliFt � V,
DLI
-Secret-
ALA AR 94-025
5 December 1994
Copy
245
Approved for Release: 2020/10/29 C06827350
pproved for Release: 2020/10/29 C06827350
Africa Review
5 December 1994
�SeonL_
Page
Articles
Rwanda: RPF at Odds With International Organizations
The Rwandan Patriotic Front�led government appears intent on
controlling the hostile Hutu majority and will risk severing relations with
international relief organizations and the UN if its plans for securing
control of Rwanda are threatened.
3
i -SeepeL.
ALA AR 94-025
5 December 1994
Approved for Release: 2020/10/29 C06827350
pproved for Release: 2020/10/29 C06827350
(b)(3)
Rwanda: RPF at Odds With
International OrganizationS
Tensions between the Rwandan Patriotic Front-led (RPF)
government and the UN are intensifying as the Tutsi-
dominated regime takes its seat as Security Council
president this month. The RPF views the UN's long-
delayed launching of the war crimes tribunal�to identify
and punish Hutus responsible for the genocide last
spring�and slowness in deploying a force to rein in Hutu
militias in Zaire as evidence that the UN and relief
organizations are more concerned about the 2 million
Hutu refugees than about the struggling regime in Kigali.
Moreover, over the past few months, the RPF's clashes
with and restrictions on the free movement of the UN
Assistance Mission in Rwanda (UNAMIR) and threats to
expel international relief workers have caused tensions to
rise. Indeed, RPF hardliners increasingly view the
international community as attempting to undennine Tutsi
rule. In our judgment, the RPF is intent on controlling the
hostile Hutu majority and will risk severing relations with
relief workers and the UN if its plans for securing and
governing Rwanda are threatened.
Relations With International Organizations
Deteriorating ...
Despite the RPF's relatively positive relationship with aid
workers initially�and its members' experience as long-
term refugees in neighboring countries for the past 30
years�relations with relief organizations have steadily
worsened since the RPF took power in July. The RPF
needs assistance feeding the 5.3 million Rwandans
remaining in-country, who have not farmed or harvested
their crops in the past seven months, but it probably
resents its dependence on and lack of control over relief
organizations:
Rwanda is a country run
by international relief organizations; there are more
than 100 relief agencies currently providing assistance.
The international community's contribution to stemming
the massive refugee flow from Rwanda�especially after
French forces withdrew from the southwestern safe zone
last August�has been of decreasing importance to Kigali
as it focuses on securing and governing the country.
Instead, the RPF's suspicions about international support
(b)(3)
to to the Hutus have contributed to rising tensions with relief
organizations:
� the RPF's
fear of Hutu infiltration and attacks from neighboring
countries has prompted it to restrict the movement of
civilians and even of aid workers throughout the
countryside
nthe RPA�the military wing of the RPF�has
harassed aid workers and denied them access to certain
"hot spots" in Rwanda.
�
Vice President and Defense
Minister Kagame threatened in October to expel relief
organizations he viewed as dividing the people of
Rwanda. He warned that the relief organizations
suspected of helping Hutus to plan an invasion of
Rwanda would "suffer the consequences."
the RPF last month had
temporarily closed the Zaire-Rwanda border in the
north to aid workers, whom they suspected of carrying
arms in convoys for Hutu refugees.
... While Prospects of Clashes With UN Forces
Increase
The RPF largely views the 5,500-man UNAMIR force in
Rwanda as a watchdog for the international community
and has little faith in the force's ability to help maintain
security. The hasty pullout of the previous, much smaller
UNAMIR force last April, when the genocid, occurred
and civil war resumed, is a constant reminder to the RPF
that it cannot trust the UN to protect Tutsis. Moreover, the
UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)
highlighted RPF
atrocities against Hums, as well as the Hutu-led genocide,
prompting RPF officials to denounce the UNHCR
the RPF
has restricted UN forces from investigating areas of
alleged massacres throughout the country.
3 "Stoeret.
ALA AR 94-025
5 December 1994
Approved for Release: 2020/10/29 C06827350
pproved for Release: 2020/10/29 C06827350
SetTet
(b)(1)
(b)(3) �
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
(b)(1)
(b)(3)
RPA troops fired on a
UN convoy of Australian troops last month after the
UN troops refused to give the RPA film that the Tutsi
troops suspected contained pictures of RPA
checkpoints.
UNAMIR's mandate to secure and protect displaced
persons, in particular, has clashed with the RPF's
concerns about the volatile southwest, where aid workers
say the Hutu militias have the same control over the
displaced persons camps there that they have over
refugees in Zaire. The RPF has criticized the UN for
failing to confront or disarm Hutu militias who are
responsible for the bulk of security incidents:
-(b)(1)
Hutu militias
(b)(3)acked RPA convoys in the southwest and
continue to encourage Hutus remaining in Rwanda to
flee to refugee camps in Zaire to prepare for an
invasion against the Tutsi regime
In October, Rwanda's Ministry of Rehabilitation
announced that the government will close all displaced
persons camps, which it views as havens for Hutu
murderers, by the end of the year.
the RPF has already closed several of
these camps over the past month. In response, senior UN
military officials said they would take military action
against the RPF to protect Hutu civilians. Meanwhile,
some UN forces
have prohibited RPA forces from arresting suspected
Hum militia members. Such actions could provoke
frustrated RPA troops to indiscriminate violence:
� In November, UN spokesmen said 21 civilians were
killed in southwestern Rwanda when RPA soldiers
hurled grenades into a displaced persons cam
RPF Expectations of Security Council Presidency
The RPF's experience in presenting the Tutsi plight
before the international community�gained during its
four-year insurgency�is strengthening its belief that the
UNSC presidency is an opportunity to gain legitimacy on
the world scene and economic assistance from the West.
During the powersharing negotiations in Arusha,
Tanzania, with the former Hutu regime during 1992-93,
the RPF had representatives throughout Europe and at the
UN who focused on public relations. The regime,
however, is probably unprepared for the administrative
strains likely to come from being UNSC president, a
failing that may limit its effectiveness in using the post as
a public relations tool
The RPF will probably try to advance the following issues
this month:
�
War crimes tribunal. The RPF's highest priority is to
bring to justice the Hutus responsible for the genocide
and ensure that it is not repeated. Although Rwanda
voted against the UN resolution�it objected to the
UN's proscription against the death penalty�Kigali
pledged cooperation with the tribunal.
the tribunal may not be fully
operative until next April, a delay we believe will only
embolden Tutsi civilians and unpaid RPA troops to
seek unilateral justice against Hutus.
� UN troops in Zaire. The RPF supports the UN's
proposal to send up to 12,000 troops to Zaire to
address the deteriorating security there caused by Hutu
militiamen�who are responsible for most of the
genocide�and army troops from the former Hutu
regime. Planning for the mission is dragging, however,
because of debates over the UN mandate and a lack of
troop contributors. The RPF is likely to use its role as
UNSC president to warn the international community
that, if forces are not sent soon, the RPA will be forced
to launch preemptive strikes into the refugee camps.
Tutsi Hardliners Dictating Kigali's Decisions
Past negotiating strategy suggests that the RPF will
become more recalcitrant toward the international
community only if it believes its sovereignty is being
usurped. RPF hardliners exert heavy influence on Kigali's
decisionmalcing and are likely to be key players in any
public relations campaign the RPF uses this month. For
example, hardliners organized a "secret commission" to
discuss UN proposals for the war crimes tribunal last
October, which subsequently led to Rwanda' s vote
against the resolution
In our judgment, the skittish RPF regime's focus is on
securing its control over Rwanda, not on providing
assistance to the displaced persons or providing an
atmosphere conducive to refugee repatriation. Any
foreign government or organization that challenges this
agenda risks conflict with Kigali or expulsion from
Seer-a 4
Approved for Release: 2020/10/29 C06827350
pproved for Release. 2020/10/29 C06827350
Rwanda. If the RPF increasingly views a continued UN
presence in Rwanda as too intrusive, this may lead
hardliners to urge a unilateral RPF decision to expel UN
troops. The Tutsi regime appears willing to suffer the
consequences of expelling aid workers and undermining
relief efforts if it deems these measures necessary to
ensure Tutsi survival and to quell the threat posed by
Hum extremists. At best, the UN and the West can expect
the RPF to tolerate UN forces. If UNAMIR aggressively
fulfills its mandate, however, clashes with RPA troops
may be inevitable
Seeret�
Reverse Blank
5 Approved for for Release: 2020/10/29 C06827350