NID: ALBANIA: INTIMATIONS OF ANOTHER ROMANIA

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: The Collapse of Communism in Eastern Europe: A 30-Year Legacy
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06826851
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: November 26, 2019
• Document Release Date: December 10, 2019
• Publication Date: January 17, 1990

Approved for Release: 2019/10/29 C06826851
Special Analysis
ALBANIA: Intimations of Another Romania
Albanian President Alia, the last of Europe's Stalinist dictators, is
increasingly showing concern that his re ime Willa to the political
upheaval sweeping Eastern Europe.
The Romanian uprising appears to have attentive observers who
labor undcr Albania's oppressive regime. News of the violent
overthrow of Nicolac Ceausescu reached Albania through factual
reporting in the official press and foreign broadcasts and may have
helped spread discontent among Albanian youth. Recent
*rowing threat of juvenile delinquency�
two-thirds of the popuiation is under 30�suggests unrest, and small
demonstrations reportedly took place in several Albanian cities late
last month. most notably in Shkoder near the Yugoslav border. There
had been earlier reports of student demonstrations in Tirane. the
capital.
The regime has made modest gestures to appease popular grievances.
Alia has eased restrictions on private ownership of livestock, an
important concession for Albania's predominantly rural population,
and may make other short-term economic moves to address basic
consumer needs. Hardline party leaders undoubtedly would have
blocked similar moves in the past but probably were unnerved
enough by events in Romania to give Alia more latitude on economic
and agricultural reforms. There is little chance they wilaareio
substantive political reform from above, as in Bulgaria.
Any significant political change would probably follow the violent
Romanian pattern. The Albanian security forces are brutal, but
probably poorly trained and equipped for riot control. Although they
could quell small urban protests, they would be stretched thin by
mass demonstrations and would have little alternative to using lethal
force. Extensive bloodshed and prolonged fighting almost certainly
would subject military discipline to the same stresses that led the
Romanian Army to turn on Ceausescu.
Emergence of a more liberal Albania would probably spur the
predominantly ethnic Albanian populace in neighboring Kosovo
Province in Yugoslavia to press for unification with Albania, almost
certainly provoking large-scale ethnic violence in Yugoslavia and
threatening that already shaky multiethnic state. Tensions are already
building between Athens and Tirane over alleged Albanian
mistreatment of its large Greek minority; a senior Albanian official
will visit Athens on 26 January in an apparent effort to smooth
relations. Instability in Albania might encourage some Greeks to try
to revive irredentist claims
rege.
TCS 2713/.L90
ii 17 January 1990
Approved for Release: 2019/10/29 C06826851