NID: ROMANIA: SITUATION REPORT

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: The Collapse of Communism in Eastern Europe: A 30-Year Legacy
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06826836
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: November 26, 2019
• Document Release Date: December 10, 2019
• Publication Date: December 22, 1989

Approved for Release: 2019/10/29 C06826836
Tap-Segget____
ROMANIA: Situal ion Report
Protests Spreading The Ceausescu regime is fast approaching its breaking point, and the US
Embassy has ordered evacuation of nonessential personnel.
Reliability of
Security Forces
A stated proregime rally in Bucharest yesterday turned into a violent
anti-Ceausescu demonstration of about 2,0 ,000 people; it left at least
13 confirmed dead. 15,000 protesters at the
International Hotel were assaulted by security forces around
midnight. several pockets of unrest in
other parts of Bucharest.
jgovernment forces also fired
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on demonstrators in Arad and Cluj yesterday.
Despite the state of emergency declared in the Timisoara area,
an unprecedented number of demonstrators�reportedly up to
100,000�demanded the right to bury their dead.
intellectuals and professionals in Timisoara have formed the
ommittee for Socialist Democracy, which has called for the ouster
of the tmtire government. Premier Dascalescu reportedl went to
Timiscara to meet with a delegation from the group.
some Army troo s
have jcined protesters, and
militia are handing out bread to civilians.
executions of military personnel by security forces for disobevine
orders o shoot at demonstrators
in Timisoara
unarmed
Comment: It is unlikely security forces will be able to sustain the
current level of force for more than a few days. The regime, however,
will COE tinue to rely primarily on the security forces, rather than on
the military, to put down unrest. The widely hated "securitate" is
better eluipped and has a personal stake in the survival of the regime.
The regular Army is comprised largely of conscripts who probably
would talk if called on for prolonged usc of force against fellow
Roman:ans.
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continued
TCS 2996/89
22 December 1989
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I _I ID
Romania: Forces To Quell Unrest
The Ministry of Interior has employed the Security Troops and the rniliti
suppression of the people of Romania.
�The 20,000 men of the Security Troops are well trained and fully equipped for riot
control. They are stationed throughout the country to protect VIPs and key
industries. Their equipment includes armored personnel carri,:rs and helicopters.
�The militia numbers some 23,000 men performing day-to-day law enforcement and
crowd control. They have a well-deserved reputation for brutality.
�The Romanian People's Army, with some 128,000 men, could be used as a backup
force but is not adequately trained for internal security operat ons. Some soldiers
reportedly have joined the demonstrations.
�The unarmed Patriotic Guard�I2,000 men� erforms simok�
checks.
�The Border Guards' 20,000-man conscript force protects the c)untry by controlling
all movement in and around the border area.
--TOTS) MO-,
TCS 2996/89
22 December 1989
Approved for Release: 2019/10/29 C06826836
Approved for Release: 2019/10/29 C06826836
Foreign Reaction
Next Moves
After
Ceausescu, Who?
Soviet Politburo member Zaykov yesterday urged the leadership not
to use force but to open a dialogue with its people. The Soviet CSCE
representative called on Romania to observe the Helsinki accords but
stopped short of condemning the regime. Hungary has asked the
chairrr an of the UN Security Council to convene a meeting to discuss
the situation. It also has canceled its Treaty of Friendship and
Coope -ation with Bucharest. Foreign Minister Horn announced,
howev.,r, that Buda est will not break diplomatic relations with
Romar:ia
Comment: Hungary is focusing its current efforts on orchestrating
international condemnation of the Ceausescu regime, which it
believes is its best hope to influence events. Budapest is not likely to
take any offensive military steps, although it will closely monitor
Romanian troop movements. Pressure for stronger measures will
mount, however, if violence becomes more widespread and Budapest
may evzn tually be forced to sever relations.
West Eiropean leaders have responded to the escalating violence
with di )lomatic protests. At yesterday's CSCE meeting, 23 members
conderr ncd the repression. The EC has suspended all remaining
relations with Bucharest and o d to provide humanitarian aid to
Roman an refugees.
Comment: Although Ceausescu may try to dampen unrest by offering
further economic concessions, his preference will be to use force to
retain power. The government already has offered minimal increases
in wage and allowances, and stores are reportedly being stocked with
usually !carce goods. These concessions will probably incite further
popular outrage.
Continu ng unrest�particularly in Bucharest�probably would set
in motion efforts by the military or Communist Party leadership to
topple C2ausescu. There arc a few identifiable political figures in
Romania who could pick up the pieces if Ceausescu were ousted.
Possible successors include military figures such as Defense Minister
Vasile Milea or civilians such as international affairs secretary
Constamin Olteanu, former Ceausescu adviser Ion Ili � nr1
former Foreign Minister Stefan .Andrei.
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TCS 2996/89
22 December 1989
Approved for Release: 2019/10/29 C06826836