NID: GERMANYS: BETROTHED, NO DATE SET

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: The Collapse of Communism in Eastern Europe: A 30-Year Legacy
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06826798
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: November 26, 2019
• Document Release Date: December 10, 2019
• Publication Date: November 28, 1989

Approved for Release: 2019/10/29 C06826798
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Special Analysis
GERNIANYS: Betrothed, No Date Set
East Germany's political and economic vulnerabilities will make it
increasingly dependent on West Germany over the next several years.
This will lead, at a minimum, to common economic policies and
probably to much closer coordination on a broad range of other issues,
including security policy. Outright de jure reunification will be a more
difficult issue, but it is conceivable that the process of change in East
Germany could drive events in that direction faster than Bonn its
neighbors and allies, and the Soviets are prepared for
The most important factors transforming intra-German tics arc
economic ones: the new East German leaders are convinced massive
new aid from West Germany is needed to avert a severe decline in
living standards. Bonn sees East Germany's economic vulnerabilities
as an unprecedented opportunity to make the East Berlin regime
adopt reforms. East German leaders already arc moving to overhaul
their economic systcm and soon will announce a new joint-venture
law and other reforms designed to attract West German investment
and trade. Intra-German trade is likely to grow by at least a third over
the next few years. West German investment probably will surge by at
least S5 billion, and the two economies inevitably will become more
integrated.
Ideologically. East German movement toward free elections,
pluralism. and market-oriented reforms over time will erase the
major systemic differences between the two states. Public opinion in
both Germanys overwhelming supports closer relations. The euphoric
mingling of hundreds of thousands of Germans after East Berlin
opened the border reaffirmed the consciousness of a single German
nation, and expanded travel opportunities undoubtedly will
strengthen this bonding
Prospects: Closer Integration
Movement toward economic integration will put de facto limits on
East German sovereignty: decisions involving the East German
economy will be made increasingly in West Germany. Close
coordination on other common interests, such as arms control,
also is likely.
A more formal association or confederation of the two states that
limits but does not terminate East German sovereignty is a
possibility. This would include synchronization of policies in key
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TCS 2975/39
29 November 1989
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areas such as defense and foreign policy and would inevitably affect
the interests of Germany's neighbors and allies, requiring their
support or acquiescence. Some political leaders in East Germany�
including Premier Modrow�have already associated themselves
publicly with the call for some sort of confederal relationship between
the Germanys
Formal de jure reunification would require agreement of the four
victorious wartime powers and would be more difficult to achieve.
Soviet and European fears about renewed German power and
concerns in both Germanys about antagonizing their principal allies
make this a goal the West Germans prefer to approach gradually and
under the umbrella of a European "peace order." Nevertheless.
development of much stronger sentiment for reunification in East
Germany might move events in this direction faster than anyone.
would have conceived only a few weeks ago: slogans favoring
reunification have already appeared in demonstrations
A more united Germany probably would help accelerate the trend
toward greater political pluralism, human rights, and market-oriented
economics in Eastern Europe. It would further weaken Soviet
military leverage in the region and might expand opportunities for
US businesses.
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TCS 2975/89
28 November 1989
6.2(d)
6.2(d)
6.2(d)
3.3(b)(1)
6.2(d)
3.3(b)(1)
6.2(d)
Approved for Release: 2019/10/29 C06826798