NID: EAST GERMANY: EMIGRATION RAISES PRESSURE

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: The Collapse of Communism in Eastern Europe: A 30-Year Legacy
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06826770
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: November 26, 2019
• Document Release Date: December 10, 2019
• Publication Date: September 12, 1989

Approved for Release: 2019/10/29 C06826770
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EAST GERMANY: Emigration Raises Pressure
By letting East German refugees depart to the West, Hungary has
increased the pressure on East Germany to replace its ailing leader Erich
Honecker and to impose travel restrictions, even at the risk of further
public disaffection.
Hungary's announcement Sunday that it would temporarily suspend
restrictions on East German emigration has. as of late yesterday.
cleared the way for more than 6,000 East Germans in Hungary to
leave for West Germany. Hungarian officials also estimate that some
60.000 additional East German travelers, many of whom want to
resettle in West Germany. remain in the country; Budapest radio
reports an additional 16,000 vacationing Eas: Germans have
strcarned into Hun ary from Czechoslovakia since the
announcement.
East Germany has condemned Budapest's actions and blames West
Germany for the emigration pressure as well as the Hungarian
decision, but signs of disarray in the East German leadership are
mounting. Officials have begun speaking openly
of the need for Honecker to step down.
Comment: The only option that appears open to the East Germans
is imposing new restrictions on Bloc travel. Such a move would risk
increasing disaffection and renewed public protests; the regime's
domestic legitimacy probably already has been challenged anew by
the formation yesterday of a new national po'itical opposition group
of intellectuals. professionals, and former Communists called New
Forum.
If the East Germans do not act, however, a larger illegal exodus and
the unprecedented level of legal emigration will deprive their troubled
economy of skilled workers, technicians, and professionals when
growth is already declining and labor short. The morale of the
remaining work force probably would suffer. Auther depressing
productivity. West Germany's economic importance to Budapest
leaves East Germany no realistic option for e,:onornic retaliation.
Honecker's failure to act decisively to halt the flow and his inability
to persuade the USSR or other Bloc regimes to help will probably
speed his replacement.
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TCS 2912/89
12 September 1989
Approved for Release: 2019/10/29 C06826770