TWO ARTICLES ON ISRAEL FROM THE NID

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06806134
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: March 8, 2023
• Document Release Date: July 25, 2019
• Case Number: F-2018-00205
• Publication Date: September 29, 1982

Approved for Release: 2019/07/16 C06806134
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Director of
Central
Intelligence
OCPAS/CIG
National Intelligence Daily
Wednesday
29 September 1982
op sect
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CPAS NID 82-228JX
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Contents
iIsrael-Lebanon: Israelis Pull Back
Special Analysis
1
i/D_Israel -Lebanon: Tel Aviv's Next Steps 12
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Beirut
35 28
� 33�54
33 52
Mediterranean
Sea
33 50
3528
35 30
US Embus"
Beirut
International
Airport
I IS don 27 47/
1,1,(17rn /x
Mediterranean
Sea
35.'32
4_ �
-33
4o-
1
DA
3 50
Lebanese armed forces
area of control
� Refugee area
re. Crossing point
I-1 Main urban area
Kilometer
o Yiww
ia 1Stalute Mile
632758 9-82
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(I) ISRAEL-LEBANON: Israelis Pull Back
Israel's agreement to vacate Bel-rut International Alrport
today removes the last obstacle to the deployment of the US contin-
:- gent of the multinatIonal force. Small numbers of Palestinians
evacuated last month from Belrut are continuimg to infiltrate back
1.nto Lebanon.
Israel yesterday withdrew its forces from the Beirut
port area and the Galerie Semaan Crossing. Lebanese Army
units and members of the Italian peacekeeping force took
9charge of the port. The Italians also moved into the
Shatila refugee camp and the Bi'r Hasan district. Israeli
troops are now concentrated south of the airport and in
the foothills around the city.
Comment: US Marines are expected to land today and
take up positions in the area around the airport. The
entire multinational force should be deployed throughout
West Beirut by tomorrow.
PLO Reinfiltration
approximately 120 of
/ the PLO fighters evacuated to Tunisia were sent last week
/ to Tripoli, Lebanon, by way of Cyprus and Syria. Other
// Palestinians from Tunisia reportedly have passed through
V Greece on their way to Syria and then Lebanon.
In addition, some Palestinian fighters sent to Syria
have reentered Lebanon.
Palestinians were secretly infiltrating
7 into the Bekaa Valley across unguarded sections of the
Syrian-Lebanese border.
1
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Soon
,5 after the Israeli invasion, Fatah established a headquar-
u)ters in Shtawrah to direct operations in the Bekaa Valley.
PLO activities in northern Lebanon are commanded from the
local headquarters in Tripoli.
All the major PLO guerrilla groups have forces in
the Bekaa and northern Lebanon, and the commander of one
,-of the smaller groups reportedly moved his headquarters
vrjecently from Damascus to the eastern Bekaa. There are
lUnow approximately 5,000 to 7,000 regular PLO fighters
in northern and eastern Lebanon, supplemented by 2,500
to 5,000 Irregulars.
0
there was no longer an
organized PLO threat in Beirut. some of the
Palestinian fighters had been killed or captured and
others had melted into the civilian population after
disposing of their weapons.
Comment: Only a few hundred Palestinians evacuated
from Beirut apparently have reentered Lebanon, but the
number is likely to Increase. PLO leaders seem deter-
mined to continue guerrilla operations against Israeli
forces in Lebanon as a key part of the Palestinian "armed
struggle." The attacks are certain eventually to provoke
a sharp Israeli retaliation.
Shias Killed During Massacre
Witnesses
attrioute tne xiiiinas to the Israeli-controlled forces
of Major Haddad.
2
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SPECIAL ANALYSIS
it
ISRAEL-LEBANON: Tel Aviv's Next Steps
The assassination of Bashir Jumayyil and the uproar following
the massacre in Beirut have dealt severe blows to Prime Minister
Begin's hopes for arranging a peace treaty with Lebanon and secur-
ing the quick departure of Syrian and PLO forces from the country.
Begin nonetheless shows no signs of scaling down his political goals
in Lebanon and appears determined to push for movement on these
issues.
Begin's need for concrete political gains to offset
the growing internal criticism of his policies on Tphannn
nrnhahly h increased since the massacre.
Israeli efforts to pin the blame ror me
killings on the Phalange and the precarious position of
the new Lebanese Government have made early Progress
toward a peace treaty unlikely.
For the near term, the Israelis will press the
Lebanese for trade normalization, establishment of a
working group on bilateral ties, and other tangible signs
that relations are developing. At the same time, they
will continue to stress the need for an eventual peace
treaty and to use their control over
as a bargaining chip.
southern Lebanon
The Israelis may even use their
ties to the Phalange
militia to put pressure on President Amin Jum
Israel is not impressed by arguments that its pres-
sure taints Amin and makes it diffirult fnr him fn nc)rrn
tiate.
--continued
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Syrian and PLO Withdrawal
Israel continues to assign a high priority to the
removal of remaining Syrian troops and PLO fighters in
the Bekaa Valley and northern Lebanon.
Israel probably still prefers a diplomatic solu-
tion to this problem. If the frontlines remain quiet
and Damascus curtails guerrilla activity, Tel Aviv could
maintain current positions without too costly a commit-
ment of troops.
If guerrilla activity continues, however, Israel
is likely to keep at least three brigades on the front-
lines and periodically strike Syrian and Palestinian
positions to discourage such activity.
Should Tel Aviv decide only military force can remove
the Syrians and Palestinians, it will haul" tn mnvP hPfore
the weather turns bad in mid-October.
Israel could drive the Syrians out of Lebanon in
a winter campaign, but casualties would be much higher,
and it would be more difficult to provide logistic
support. Moreover, Israel probably could not keep the
Syrians and Palestinians out of Lebanon withr* mAin-
taining a sizable force in the Bekaa Valley.
Security in the South
Israel clearly had hoped for a peace treaty that
would allow its forces to withdraw from the south while
maintaining a 40-kilometer security belt policed by
Christian militia leader Major Haddad. The Israelis
were leaving nothing to chance, however, and even before
Bashir Jumayyil's assassination they began to prepare
for a long stay.
13
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Haddad has been allowed to extend his area of con-
trol to the Al Awwali River and Lake Qir'awn in the north.
He has declared Sidon the capital of "Free Lebanon,"
) apparently with Tel Aviv's blessing, and has coerced
and cajoled Lebanese villagers in the south to join his
2/militia. Meanwhile, Israeli civil administrators operat-
7ing under the aegis of the military governor for southern
2 Lebanon have been organizing local "police" forces that
operate under Israeli control.
The UN peacekeeping force--stationed in the south
since Israel's incursion in 1978--and the Lebanese Army
have been rendered completely powerless in the region
by the Israeli military. Israel's negative opinion of
UN forces has prompted Tel Aviv to oppose a new or
expanded UN peacekeeping operation in Lebanon.
Israel claims the UN force was unwilling to prevent
Palestinian guerrillas from attacking northern Israeli
settlements and, in some cases, aided and abetted the
guerrillas. The Lebanese Army's reputation was not
much better, and Israel disarmed some units and confined
them to their barracks after the invasion this summer.
' Outlook
In the absence of a peace treaty, Tel Aviv probably
will continue to strengthen the pro-Israeli militias in
the south and encourage them to extend their areas of
control. Haddad's militia already has taken up positions
in the Bekaa Valley and is expected to assume a larger
role in patrolling the security zone. Nevertheless,
Israel probably will maintain a military presence in the
south, as it has since 1978, to augment the militias.
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