CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1958/05/03

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06805387
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: January 27, 2020
• Document Release Date: January 30, 2020
• Publication Date: May 3, 1958

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Release:
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3 May 1958
Sc No.
Copy No. 140
CENTRAL
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
DOCUN NO. _
NO C i'
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NEXI I VIEW L))
AUTH: I, 7J)2
DATE.
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3 MAY 1958
I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
USSR likely to maintain unilateral
nuclear test suspension in effort to
improve summit bargaining position. 0
IL ASIA-AFRICA
Indonesia - Political and military
leaders in Djakarta state they are
seeking peaceful settlement with
North Celebes dissidents and plan-
ning new cabinet free from Commu-
nist influence. They have not yet
approached Sukarno.
Iraq - Government intimidation of
opposition in 5 May election may
increase antagonism toward Nuni
Said regime.
I I L TliE WEST
British thermonuclear test on 28
April estimated at about two mega-
tons.
Adenauer has strengthened position
for state elections by stealing op-
position thunder on disarmament
Issue.
Colombia - Attempted military
coup crushed on eve of presiden-
tial election.
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
3 May 1958
DAILY BRIEF
THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Soviet tactics on nuclear test issue: Reacting to the
first shot in the current British test series, Khrushchev
stated on 30 April that "our policy remains unchanged."
This declaration is somewhat ambiguous since the USSR
need not use the British tests as a pretext for renouncing
its own unilateral decision to suspend tests. On the other
hand, the USSR has already declared that it will "act
freely in the question of testing" should the other nuclear
powers resume testing. In view of the Soviet insistence
that the test suspension issue should have top priority
in summit talks, it is unlikely that the Soviet leaders will
at this time revoke the commitment to suspend tests, an
action which would weaken their bargaiting position.
Khrushchev also said that the USSR "will hardly agree"
to send representatives to observe some of the tests in
the current US series in the Pacific because this action
would offer "a sort of moral support" for the position of
"cold war" advocates on developing "clean" bombs.
. ASIA-AFRICA
Indonesia: Anti-Communist political and military leaders
in Djakarta itate they are trying to arrange a peaceful settle-
ment with the dissidents in North Celebes, to be followed by
the formation of a new central government cabinet dominated
by the army and free from Communist influence. As yet
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these leaders have apparently not sought Sukarno's support;
should he actively oppose, their plans would be seriously
jeopardized. Dissident air attacks on government instal-
lations and shipping in East Indonesia continue.
ernment's six corvettes.
(Map)
loss of one of the gov-
(Page 1)
Iraq: All but 20 of the 145 seats in the Iraqi parliament
will be uncontested in the 5 May elections. The wholesale
withdrawal of nongovernment candidates, largely as a re-
sult of government pressures, and the boycott by antigov-
ernment elements suggest that. there will be growing frus-
tration with and antagonism toward the Nun i Said regime.
(Page 3)
III.. THE WEST
British thermonuclear.: test: The Joint Atomic Energy
Intelligence Committee (JAEIC) announces that the Atomic
Energy Detection System has obtained the following data on
the thermonuclear test conducted by the United Kingdom on
28 April 1958 near Christmas Island:
The explosion occurred at 1.900 hours, 5 minutes
and 7 seconds GMT. Preliminary estimate of the
yield range is one half to 5 megatons, with a best
estimate of about 2 megatons. A rough estimate of
the height of burst is about 10,060 feet above the sea.
This is the 17th test conductif by the UK. and is ore of a
series still to be completed.
3 May 58
DAILY BRIEF ii
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West Germany: Adenauer seems to have considerably
strengthened his political position for the five: state dlections
scheduled for this year by his new emphasis on disarma-
ment as the main topic of a summit conference and by his
handling of the recent Mikoyan visit. The American Em-
bassy reports that the opposition Social Democrats, who
had hoped to exploit the nuclear weapons issue in the
state elections are furious because Adenauer has stolen
their thunder. (Page 4)
�:*Colombia: Loyal troops in Bogota on 2 May quickly put
own an attempt by military followers of former dictator
flojas Pinilla to stage a coup initiated by the kidnaping of
our members of the ruling juniA and the leading candidate in
he 4 May presidential election. Civilian and military ex-
tremists will probably continue efforts to instigate violence
in an attempt to keep the military junta from turning over con-
trol to the elected president on 7 August.
(Page 5)
3 May 58
DAILY BRIEF
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L THE COMMUNIST BLOC
No Back-up .Materitl..
IL ASIA-AFRICA
Situation in Indonesia
Political and military leaders in Indonesia have
conveyed to American officials within the last few days
their thinking on how Indonesia should stop continuing
Communists gains. Both groups are thinking in terms
of a new nonleftist cabinet, led by the army if President
Sukarno should refuse to cooperate in curbing Commu-
nist strength.
Foreign Minister Subandrio admitted to the American
ambassador on 30 April that President Sukarno is not yet
convinced that positive action must be taken against the
Communists, but that he and others are "working on" the
President. Subandrio said the Indonesian masses are be-
coming more and more subservient to Communist organ-
ization and that Indonesia now faces its last opportunity
to curb Communist strength by democratic means. The
non-Communist political parties have put up little or no
effective opposition to the Communists, and the only ef-
fective weapon within the democratic framework to which
the masses have always responded is the voice of Sukarno.
Without Sukarno, Subandrio said, the army remains the
only answer.
efforts are under way to stop the
fighting in North Celebes.
rebel leaders will be informed that
a new cabinet dominated by the army and free from leftist
influence is definitely planned. Army Chief of Staff General
Nasution, wants American support and American
weapons but will act to form a new cabinet even if this sup-
port is not available. He intends to run the country for the
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next five years.
Sukarno would either be in agreement with army
plans or the army would be in a position to influence him.
The army's attack on North Celebes has been post-
poned pending the outcome of talks with the dissidents,
according to the South Celebes officer. Should the talks
fail, however, military action is set for 15 May.
Dissident air strikes continue against government in-
stallations and shipping in East Indonesian areas. The
Ambon harbor and airfield were bombed and strafed again
on 30 April and 1 May.
the Hang Tuah, one of the government's six cor-
vettes, was sinking in Balikpapan harbor as the result of
damage from air attack on 28 April.
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Iraqi Elections
The Nun i Said regime has assured itself of a landslide
victory in the 5 May election of the new 145-seat Iraqi par-
liament which will approve the constitution of the union
with Jordan. Wholesale withdrawals of nongovernment can-
didates, in large part due to government pressure, and a
boycott by antigovernment groups have left only 20 seats
contested. Additional withdrawals may occur.
The elections are being tightly controlled by Prime Min-
ister Nun i Said. One Kurdish candidate told the American
consul that he was waiting for "instructions from Baghdad"
before even making the caOdeposit required of each can-
didate. There are no national issues and no campaigning,
and the government is discouraging handbills, speeches,
and political rallies. Public reaction is apathetic, and
frustration and antagonism toward the present regime are
growing. The new parliament, which will be subservient to
Nun, will consist largely of conservative businessmen,
tribal sheiks, and landowners.
Although the new parliament ostensibly will elect 15 cof
its members to ,the 40-man Arab Union "super-parliamenk"
Crown Prince Albd al-Illah is reported to have in effect made
the appointments some time ago. Five 'additional deputies
td the Arab Union legislature will be picked from the member-
ship of the palace-appointed Iraqi Senate.
While the outcome of the elections will have little direct
effect on US security interests, such rigged elections are
basically damaging to Western interests over the long term
since the resentment they create locally is directed toward
Britain nd the United States as well as toward the pro-West-
ern aqi regime.
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III. THE WEST
�
Adenauer's Improved Domestic Political Position
Chancellor Adenauer's new political initiative�stress-
ing disarmament as the major topic of a summit conference
and de-emphasizing German reunification--seems thus far
to have been an effective move against the opposition Social
Democratic party (SPD), which has been planning to use the
nuclear weapons issue against him in five impending state
elections. Since the SPD itself has insisted for some time
that the immediate problem is to make some sort of progress
toward disarmament, it cannot effectively attack the chan-
cellor's new position.
The American Embassy in Bonn reports that the SPD
is furious that Adenauer has undercut its active "fight
against atomic death." Adenauer has now initiated a ma-
jor government publicity campaign stressing a Bonn cab-.
met declaration that it will "fight against atomic death all
over the world" by attempting to bring about a world-wide
disarmament agreement. SPD leaders may now feel that
their whole election campaign argument against the govern-
ment's decision to accept nuclear weapons will be less ef-
fective. The public response to the May Day "atom death"
demonstrations staged by the party did not come up to its
expectations.
Adenauer has also weakened the SPD's argument that
the government is too inflexible to negotiate seriously with
the USSR. The West German public has welcomed the new
treaty with the USSR, particularly the repatriation aspects,
and there has been considerable favorable publicity on
Adenau r's handling of the recent visit of Soviet Deputy
Pre er Mikoyan.
CONFIDENTIAL
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Colombian Preelection Violence Increasing
The attempted military coup d'etat in Bogota in which
the leading presidential candidate and four members of the
five-man junta were kidnaped was put down on 2 May by
loyal military units.
Earlier, troops were sent to crush an armed revolt
of traditionally conservative peasants in the northeastern
-provinces. The revolts cccurred just two days before the
presidential elections, in which the joint candidate of the
bi-partisan Liberal-Conservative National Front, Lleras
Camargo, is virtually certain to be elected.
The attempted coup was instigated by military con-
servative extremists, followers of former dictator Rojas
Pinilla who hoped to oust the junta before it turns over its
control to the Liberal leader Lleras. The disturbances
were probably welcomed by extremist civilian elements
of the Conservative party who feel that the National Front
candidacy of Lleras is a sell out to the Liberals. This dis-
sident minority, has nominated Jorge Leyva, a longtime foe
of bipartisan government, as the opposition candidate and
will probably continue to foment violence in an attempt to
encourage further political instability in order to bloc Lleras
from taking over the presidency on 7 August.
-CO2NPIDE?7T1AI-
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