SOMALIA: ETHIOPIA AND ERITREA TILTING TOWARD GENERAL AIDED

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06803308
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: March 9, 2023
• Document Release Date: June 29, 2020
• Case Number: F-2019-00938
• Publication Date: October 25, 1994

Approved for Release: 2020/06/29 C06803308
Intelligence Report
Office of African and Latin American Analysis
25 October 1994
Somalia: Ethiopia and Eritrea Tilting Toward General Aideed
A growing body of reporting indicates that Ethiopian President Meles and
Eritrean President Issaias have decided to help General Aideed establish a
Somali government.
Support from Addis Ababa and Asmara will enhance Aideed's political stature,
may provide him a significant military advantage over his rivals, and
undoubtedly will further embolden Aideed and lessen any inclination he might
have to compromise.
An Increasingly Active Political Campaign
There is growing evidence that the governments of Ethiopia and Eritrea, which have
closely coordinated their Somali policies since the start of the international
intervention, have begun an active campaign to help General Aideed establish a
national government in Somalia.
ALA 94-40019
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Arms and Ammunition for the Warlord
A number of reports from different sources Os� suggest that, at
a minimum, Addis Ababa has permitted Aideed's Somali National Alliance (SNA)
representatives to purchase and ship arms and ammunition from Ethiopia to his forces
in Somalia.
�
agreed in late August
to allow Aideed to remove weapons and ammunition from a major SNA
stockpile in the Region 5 town of Shilabo, Ethiopia
shipments of ammunition for Aideed's faction arrived in
(b)(1) Mogadishu from Ethiopia in mid and late September.
SNA official purchased
multiple rocket launchers, assault rifles, heavy machineguns,
Itruck loads of ammunition from Ethiopial
This report was prepared by Office of African and Latin American Analysis.
Comments and queries are welcome and may be directed to Chief, Africa Division.
(U)
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truckloads of
arms, escorted by Ethiopian troops, recently crossed the Somali border destined
for Aideed.
� Addis Ababa also is increasingly concerned that instability in Somalia will
prevent the repatriation of tens of thousands of Somali refugees still in
Ethiopian camps and that a major resurgence of fighting may spark new refugee
flows. Addis Ababa already faces a restive ethnic Somali population and
organized resistance groups in its Region 5, and probably fears that new
refugees from Somalia would support and provide recruits to such groups.
� Of lesser concern probably is a desire by both governments to counter what they
perceive as continuing Egyptian support to Aideed's rival All Mandi.
Meles and Issaias appear to have decided that Aideed represents their best option for
promoting political stability in Somalia.
A Decisive Gain for Aideed?
/tideed recently appears to have scored some political gains
against his rival All Mandi, including winning the defection of several key Ali Mandi
allies to his camp. these political gains
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are not yet decisive, Aideed appears confident that he has acquired enough political
and military support to proceed unilaterally with a "reconciliation" conference later
this week that may result in his declaring a new Somali government.
(b)(3)
Such a declaration, without the acquiescence of All Mandi and his allies, is likely to
lead to another round of fighting. Heavy fighting in June and July consumed much of
the ammunition stocks in the capital, and both Aideed and All Mandi have been
scrambling to replenish their supplies. Aideed's acquisition of even limited amounts
of arms and ammunition, including mortar and recoilless rifle rounds and rocket-
propelled grenades, might be enough to give him an edge militarily over his less well-
armed Mogadishu rivals. Eritrean and Ethiopian assistance will probably not enable
Aideed to decisively defeat his Mogadishu rivals, but he could use his military
advantage to bully marginal All Mandi allies into accepting an Aideed-dominated
government, further tilting the political balance in his favor.
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