SOUTH KOREA: TURBULENCE LIKELY IN ELECTION WAKE

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06799611
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: March 8, 2023
• Document Release Date: June 18, 2019
• Case Number: F-2019-00238
• Publication Date: December 11, 1987

Approved for Release: 2019/06/03 C06799611
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Director of
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National Intelligence Daily
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11 December 1987
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Contents
Special Analyses
South Korea: Turbulence Likely in Election Wake 13
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Special Analysis
SOUTH KOREA: Turbulence Likely in Election Wake
Kim Young Sam still appears to have the momentum, and his
aides seem genuinely confident he will win the presidency on
Wednesday, although opinion polls vary widely and many voters
remain undecided. Officials in the ruling party are divided over
Roh Tae Woo's prospects, and pressure is building to fix the
election; la plan for
extensive fraud is already being implemented.
Polls and anecdotal information give Kim Young Sam the top spot.
Opposition campaign strategists�buoyed by evidence that Roh may
have slipped into third place�are going after undecided voters, who
still represent more than 20 percent of the electorate. Kim Dae Jung,
who appears to be trailing Kim Young Sam in part because of worries
that his election might provoke the Army to Intervene, has begun to
talk of national reconciliation. He has tried publicly to assure military
officers that he has no plans for a politically motivated purge of the
professional officer corps.
Dissident churchmen, students, and other longtime backers continue
to urge the two Kims to compromise on a single opposition candidate,
but neither shows any sign of conceding. They are still criticizing each
other, and the campaign continues to be nasty. Student activists
account for many of the campaign trail clashes, according to police
reports. Both Kims claim aovernmrt hirelings have helped provoke
the incidents.
Into the Last Leg
Despite the opposition split dividing the antigovernment vote, many
ruling-party officials are worried about the election outcome. A senior
presidential adviser told US officials this week that Roh has no more
than an even chance of winnina.
Kim appears to have a comfortable lead over Roh and Kim Dae
Jung in Seoul, the largest constituency in the country.
Some ruling-party officials were encouraged by the turnout for Roh in
Pusan last Saturday, and have
committed millions of dollars to a large rally for Roh tomorrow in
Seoul. In addition, leaks to the press by Roh's camp suggest he may
outline plans to include opposition politicians in his cabinet in another
dramatic reform gesture to win votes.
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The Morning After
South Korean officials are warning of political instability after the
election, perhaps to lay the groundwork for tighter political controls
after the voting or even for nullifying the election if the opposition
were to win. A senior official told the Embassy last week that 50,000
leftists and militants loyal to Kim Dae Jung are planning violent street
demonstrations to overturn Roh's victory and pose a real postelection
threat. If Roh appears to be the victor because of widespread fraud, a
popular backlash is likely.
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