THE SITUATION IN VIETNAM

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Approved for Release: 2019/01/17 C06772392 DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM The Situation in Vietnam Approved for Release: 2019/01/17 C06772392 Top ret EO 13526 3.3(h)(2) EO 13526 3.5(c) 7 9) 3.5(c) 7 Febrifa:ff 1968 Approved for Release: 2019/01/17 C06772392 , Tos ret WA 110 NING This document contains classified information affecting the national security of the United States within the meaning of the espionage laws, US Code Title 18, Sections 793, 794, and 798. Approved for Release: 2019/01/17 C06772392 Approved for Release: 2019/01/17 C06772392 T9.2-8SCRET Information as of 1200 7 February 1968 HIGHLIGHTS The Lang ye Special Forces camp, a scant five miles from Khe Sanh, has fallen to North Vietnamese Army units spearheaded by tanks. Communist forces remain entrenched in the Cholon section of Saigon, and the enemy position in the city of Da Lat is strong. Scattered clashes have been reported through- out the country. I. The Military Situation in South Vietnam: Lang Vei Special Forces camp has fallen (Paras. 1-3). The situation elsewhere in .I Corps is described (Paras. 4-7). Except for heavy, pressure at Kontum and Da Lat, the situation in II Corps is relatively quiet (Paras. 8-10). The situation in III Corps is good although security in Saigon itself remains unstable (Paras. 11-13). Can Tho city was the scene of the only significant enemy action in IV Corps (Para. 14). The status of Route 4 is reported (Para. 15). II. Political Developments in South Vietnam: A number of influential personalities seem to be coming around to the view that the Viet Cong offen- sive will increase the people's support for the gov- ernment, provided the government properly exploits present anti-Communist sentiment (Paras.1-8). Many senators are criticizing the military leadership, and their attitude prevented passage of a resolution worded to express support for thd government (Paras. 9-10). The food situation in Saigon is improving, and prices are coming down (Para. 11). TO CRET Approved for Release: 2019/01/17 C06772392 3.5(c) 3.5(c) 3.5(c) 3.5(c) 3.5(c) Approved for Release: 2019/01/17 C06772392-_ I Ul" ,5�ErCK/61 III. Military Developments in North Vietnam: Unprecedented activity on the part of North Viet- namese bombers and transport aircraft during the past week suggests that Hanoi will employ its limited air power in some way to support the cur- rent Communist offensive in South Vietnam (Paras. 1-9). IV, Other Communist Military. Developments: There, is nothing of significance to report. V. Communist Political Developments:. Inter- rogation of captured Viet Cong-whopartIcipated.in the recent attacks on major cities indicates some of their pre-offensive indoctrination took the same line the Communists are now peddling in their propaganda (Paras.-1-7). Vietnamese Communist diplomats speaking in Pyongyang have linked the Pueblo incident with the Vietnam conflict (Paras. Vietnamese Communist spokesmen are under- scoring their contention that the first moves to end the war must come from the US (Paras. 10-11). Communist propaganda is now stressing that their military offensive'in South Vietnam may not neces- sarily be short lived (Paras. 12-13). . VI. Other Major Aspects: Some of the. Commu- nists.who-attacked-Saigon.were apparently trained in Cambodia, according to prisoner interrogations (Paras. 1-3), Truck deliveries.to North Vietnam during the past three months are reported (Paras.. 4-5). Note: Because of a disruption in field reporting from MACV the Weekly Review of South Vietnam Battle Statistics will not be published on schedule. They will appear when available. 7 February 1968 ii TOP ET Approved for Release: 2019/01/17 C06772392 3.5(c) 3.5(c) 3.5(c) 3.5(c) Approved for Release: 2019/01/17 C06772392 `\. THAILAND �-�-��� 106 NORTH \ VIETNAM Demilitarized Zone ./bang Tri QUANG -Tr TRI Lang V nei6./ � � SEcial Forces'eainp THUA TI-11EIN cP QUANG NAM *Da Nang QUANG TIN .Qyang Ngai ci QUANG KONTUM . Kontume BINH DIN Pleiku. PLEIKU PI-IU BON CAMBODI PHU YEN DAR LAC *Ban Me Thuot KHANH HOA 2 oAn QUOC GULF OF - SIAM PHNOM .PENHN 0 �si GUANO DUC TUYEN � Da DUC PHUOC amFi LONG �LAM DONG TAY LONG �..-N NINH BINH BINH DUONG LONG THUAN ..... BINH KHAN H ..... \ Tan S\ut TUY Bie Hoa BVI iA411044 BIEN KIEN HOA PHONG TUONG PH UOC NG GIA TUY AN 0,H La VjgTiu IEN GIANG PHONG DM VINH BIN "J YEN IEU AN XUYEN � L1 Lat CIM RANH NINH THUAN_Nir SOUTH VIETNAM 7FEBRUARY CONF NTIAL 50 75 100 Mae, 50 75 100 Kdomeers 69533 2-66 CIA Approved for Release: 2019/01/17 C06772392 Approved for Release: 2019/01/17 C06772392 TO CRET I. THE MILITARY SITUATION IN SOUTH VIETNAM 1. Lang Vei Special Forces camp, five miles from Khe Sanh, has fallen to North Vietnamese Army units spearheaded by tanks. The enemy position in Da Lat appears stronger than previously reported, and Communist units hold several key strongpoints. In Saigon, little activity has been reported, as South Vietnamese forces have not pushed against the Communist forces entrenched in Cholon. Sporadic firing, primarily from isolated Communist detach- ments, continues in a number of other, urban areas. Allied forces have reported a series of other armed clashes throughout the country. I Corps 2. On the morning of 7 February, enemy forces, supported by at least nine PT-76 tanks, overran the Lang Vei Special Forces camp. Latest reports in- dicate that about one enemy company controls the camp. An allied reaction force on 7 February re- ported rescuing 14 of the 20 US Special Forces advisers and approximately 70-100 of the 450 indigenous forces originally in the camp. The attack against Lang Vei was coordinated with a mortar and artillery barrage against the main Khe Sanh combat base and a ground probe against Hill 861. On 7 February intermittent fire was reported to be continuing against US positions in the Khe Sanh area. 3. MACV has reported that an estimated 6,000 refugees from the Lang Vei area have moved to a position about one quarter of a mile from Khe Sanh.- This presents a serious tactical problem for Khe Sanh and efforts are being made to deter the refugees from moving any closer. 7 February 1968 I-1 TOP RET Approved for Release: 2019/01/17 C06772392 3.5(c) 3.5(c) 3.5(c) 3.5(c) Approved for Release: 2019/01/17 C06772392 4. On 5 February radio stations serving the forward headquarters of the Communist Thua-Thien- Hue Military Region and the headquarters of the 6th Regiment were located in the immediate vicinity of Hue city. A prisoner captured during the fighting in the city has stated that the Hue municipal unit and the 800th battalion, 6th Regiment, had the mis- sion of conducting a three-day attack against the MACV compound. If allied resistance was heavy, the attack, according to the prisoner, would continue for seven days, and if the Communist units were re- inforced, they would maintain the pressure for 15 days. The prisoner claims that the municipal unit and 800th battalion consist largely of regroupees or local Viet Cong, lending credence to some assump- tions that most of the recent attacks in I Corps, and elsewhere, were primarily conducted by Viet Cong units, and that by and large few North Vietnamese Army units have been committed. 5. An after-action report/ concerning the attack on Quang Ngai city indicates that elements of every combat effective force in the province were used in the attack. Cap- tured documents and prisoners have identified eight sapper/infantry, battalions and 12 local force com- panies as having participated in the assault. 6. Weapons captured during the attack indicate that the enemy was well equipped. The RPG-7 rocket launcher was employed for the first time in Quang Ngai. In addition, US advisers report that much of the enemy's ammunition was new. Sapper munitions, such as satchel charges and bangalore torpedoes were well made, suggesting that they came from an arms factory and were probably not homemade. 7. The Vietnamese estimate that the total strength of the enemy force attacking Quang Ngai city was around 3,600. Enemy killed, according to Vietnamese and advisory body counts, exceeded 1,200. Included in the enemy losses were several high-ranking officers, 7 February 1968 1-2 TOP RET Approved for Release: 2019/01/17 C06772392 3.5(c) 3.5(c) 3.3(h)(2) 3.5(c) 3.5(c) Approved for Release: 2019/01/17 C06772392 TOP ET such as the 48th battalion commander and two of the battalion's subordinate company commanders. II Corps 8. Except for continuing heavy pressure by Communist forces against the provincial capitals of Kontum city and Da Lat, the military situation in II Corps was relatively quiet. 9. Heavy contact between US forces and prob- able elements of the North Vietnamese Army 66th Regiment apparently continues northeast of Kontum city. The heavily damaged city is bracing for an epidemic of plague and cholera. There are also reports that the Vietnamese 24th Sector commander, responsible for the defense of Kontum, �has been relieved for incompetence. 10. In Tuyen Duc Province, an estimated 1,500- man Viet Cong force reportedly remains entrenched within the Da Lat city limits. III Corps 11. While the provincial capitals and district towns in III Corps are under allied control, security in Saigon remains unstable. The situation is clearly at its worse on the southwestern side of the city; it appears as though the Viet Cong are trying to isolate the Cholon section from the rest of the city. On 6 February 16 allied soldiers and 120 Communists were reported killed in a battle near Tan Son Nhut Air. Base northeaa-t of Saigon. 12. Military activity elsewhere in the III Corps area on 6-7 February centered in Hau Nghia Province. In three engagements there on 6 February, 56 Viet Cong were killed compared to allied losses of 51 killed and 28 wounded. February 1968 1-3 Approved for Release: 2019/01/17 C06772392 3.5(c) 3.5(c) 3.5(c) 3.5(c) Approved for Release: 2019/01/17 C06772392 13. Interrogation of a prisoner captured on 4 February indicates that the 5th Viet Cong Divi- sion--active in the Bien Hoa area--has a radio in- tercept capability and heavy .weapons support organic to the.division. The prisoner stated that his unit provided the division with a radio intercept and a Cryptpanalysis capability-. It has cryptographers proficient- in the English language. By utilizing these capabilities, the prisoner claimed that divi- sion elements recently were able to avoid at least one B-52 strike and to thwart an allied ground at- tack. The source also stated that the 5th Division had a "light" artillery regiment providing it with 140-Mm. rocket support. The prisoner claims to have heard that the division possesses a weapon larger than the 140-mm. rocket, but he was unable. to provide any details. IV Corps 14. The only significant activity reported on 5-6 February was a series of clashes in and around Can Tho city. The Communists apparently have been driven out of the Can Tho university buildings in which they had barricaded themselves. Status of Highway 4 15. On 5 February Highway 4, the strategic route linking Saigon with the delta provinces, was reported impassable due to numerous interdictions in Dinh Tuong, Vinh Long, Phong Dinh, and Ba Xuyen provinces. The nine miles of this highway which traverse An Xuyen were reported clear, but the status of the road in Bac Lieu is unknown. 7 February 1968 1-4 CRET Approved for Release: 2019/01/17 C06772392 Approved for Release: 2019/01/17 C06772392 II. POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN SOUTH VIETNAM 1. An increasing number of influential personali- ties seem to be coming around to the view that the Com- munist offensive has not only hurt the Viet Cong image in the eyes of the people but will also serve to in- crease support for the government. They say, however, that the degree of popular backing which the govern- ment can expect will depend on the government's ability to provide for the people and mobilize them for the anti-Communist fight. 2. Tran Quoc Buu, president of the Vietnamese Confederation of Labor, who took a pessimistic view early in the crisis, told an embassy officer on 6 Feb- ruary that he believes many people previously "neutral" have now swung to support of the government. This opin- ion was concurred in by Vo Van Tai, secretary general of the confederation's Saigon Council. Tai, who is still scheduled to be tried for his part in the recent labor disputes, had previously issued a statement on behalf of his council voicing full support for the government in the crisis. 3. Buu told the embassy officer that the regime now has a perfect opportunity to capitalize on anti-Com- munist sentiment, but should not use its own resources exclusively to mobilize the population. The government would do better, he feels, to encourage the direct par- ticipation of leading nongovernment personalities. Buu's own effort to or- ganize his confederation affiliates to assist the govern- ment are being encouraged by several cabinet members. 4. Oppositionist Lower House deputy Ly Quy Chung expressed similar views in a recent conversation with an embassy officer. Chung voiced optimism at the lack of popular response to the Viet Cong and, like Buu, views the present situation as a good opportunity for the government to broaden its base of popular support by calling on the assistance of various prestigious figures. Chung said that the Lower House will con- tinue to support the government's efforts in the current crisis, as long as no unconstitutional steps are taken. 7 February 1968 CRET Approved for Release: 2019/01/17 C06772392 3.3(h)(2) 3.5(c) 3.5(c) Approved for Release: 2019/01/17 C06772392 TO CRET 5. Phan Khac Suu, an oppositionist and de- feated presidential candidate, was taken into pro- tective police custody on 6 February because of a Viet Cong prisoner's allegation that Suu would be kidnapped. Suu has expressed his eagerness to help the government he planned to confer with other political leaders and then offer his �services to the government and his willingness to work with anyofficial or or- ganization. 6. Although Suu's remarks were made before the police took him into custody, there is little reason to believe that his attitude has changed. His ability to carry through with his plans will, of course, be hampered if he remains in custody. 7. These indications of a willingness to join forces with the government from persons who, like Suu and Chung, are known oppositionists or, like Tai, 'have a grudge against the govern- ment, are encouraging signs. All of these indi- viduals can probably command a considerable follow- ing, �and their influence should be useful �in com- mitting more of the public to the anti-Communist effort. 8. As for the people themselves, a number of reports indicate that morale in' many.areas'is on the upswing. Some confusion still exists, un- founded:xtMors still find currency, and there con tinues.to.be criticism of the, government, but for the most part, observers in Saigon report, .anti-Communist sentiment is-growing.. This is. true, despite the fact that people in some localities view the Viet Cong offensive as having resulted in a psychological victory .for the Communists. 7 .February 1968 11-2 CRET Approved for Release: 2019/01/17 C06772392 3.5(c) 3.5(c) 3.3(h)(2) 3.5(c) 3.5(c) Approved for Release: 2019/01/17 C06772392 TOP CRET Upper House Dissent 9. Despite these encouraging signs, there con- tinue to be serious expressions of dissent from the Upper House. During a heated session on 6 February, several senators severely criticized the government, and particularly the military leadership. They charged that, although the security services had had prior warning of impending Viet Cong attacks, no steps were taken to prevent them. One senator called the military commanders incompetent and irresponsible, saying that "a sense of decency should compel them to resign." 10. As a result, the Upper House was unable to reach agreement on the wording of a resolution to voice support for the government. The question was deferred until the 7 February session, when a resolu- tion was finally drafted without any, explicit mention of backing for the government. The communique de- nounces the Viet Cong, expresses gratitude to Viet- namese soldiers--but not military commanders--and to allied forces. It also urges creation of an armed peoples' self-defense force. Antigovernment sentiment was somewhat, muted in the second session, but more criticism can probably be expected in the future. Food in Saigon 11. The food situation in Saigon is apparently not as serious as it first appeared early in the crisis. On 1 and 2 February food stocks available in the markets were very limited and prices skyrocketed to three and four times the normal price in many in- stances. By 3 February, however, prices began to came down and on the 5th the markets carried an almost com- plete stock of foodstuffs, including meat, fish, poul- try, and vegetables. Food vendors reported that some fresh products were arriving from areas close to Saigon. Stocks of rice, which are stored in warehouses in the Saigon-Cholon area, were held up for a time because of insecure conditions in Cholon, but on 6 February the government began to move quantities of rice out to the public in some parts of the city and planned greater distribution for succeeding days. 7 February 1968 II-3 TOP CRET Approved for Release: 2019/01/17 C06772392 3.5(c) 3.5(c) 3.5(c) 3.5(c) Approved for Release: 2019/01/17 C06772392 Approved for Release: 2019/01/17 C06772392 3.3(h)(2) Approved for Release: 2019/01/17 C06772392 r TOP 5.E'CR'ET AN-2 Activity 6: The southward deployment. of North Vietnam's AN-2 forde.may. also have been complicated by weather conditions-or tactical.considerations.- about seven AN-2s did depart Hanoi/ Gia Lam in the late afternoon of 7 February (Hanoi time) and flew, at least 50 miles south of Vinh. 7. shortly thereafter these planes flew tartner south and attempted to land--possibly at an "inactive" airstrip at Tchepone, Laos, which is located about 35 miles west of the Khe Sanh area. the AN-2s ran into bad weather, and were forced to abort their mission in this region. 8. / /five AN-2s did fly north from the southern section of the.country in the. earlyevening hours of 7 February (Hanoi time). By about 2200 hours three of these aircraft had landed at ,Gia Lam Airfield and .6-rie'at Vinh. It is 'still not. clear whether-the AN-2s'were involved in a transport or an attack mission.' 9., Meanwhile, North Vietnamese air defense nets continued to carry warnings.of B-52 operations in the-vicinity.of-the Demilitarized Zone on 3 Feb- ruary; The steady. bombardment of Communist posi- tions ..by these' oombers makes them an important target. for North Vietnamese surface-to-air missile Units; which are known to be in.the area, or for MIG-21s based near Hanoi: 7 February 1968 CRET Approved for Release: 2019/01/17 C06772392 3.5(c) 3.5(c) 3.3(h)(2 3.3(h)(2) 3.3(h)(2) 3.3(h)(2) 3.5(c) 3.5(c) Approved for Release: 2019/01/17 C06772392 TOT-,FrECZET IV. OTHER COMMUNIST MILITARY DEVELOPMENTS 1. There is nothing of significance to report. 7 February 1968 Approved for Release: 2019/01/17 C06772392 3.5(c) 3.5(c) 3.5(c) 3.5(c) Approved for Release: 2019/01/17 C06772392 V. COMMUNIST POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS 1. Interrogation of captured Viet Cong who took part in the recent attacks indicates some of their pre-offensive indoctrination took the same line the Communists are now peddling in their propaganda. These prisoners assert that the Communists hoped the Tet military offensive would attract dramatic popular support, particularly in urban areas. They say that the end product was to be a coalition of the Libera- tion Front with new "front" groups--a coalition which would take the form of a new national "administration" or "government." 2. A group of officers captured at Nha Trang claim to be especially informed on Communist political intentions and that these intentions were embodied in North Vietnam's Communist Party Resolution No. 13. Although there have been many references to this policy paper dating back to the spring of 1967, de- tails are sketchy. One of the Nha Trang prisoners claims that the main purpose of the military offensive was to establish a significant Communist presence in important cities in an effort to strengthen the hand of the Liberation Front in negotiations with the US. The actual technique used was to establish other "fronts" composed of groups or individuals with a record of disagreement or disaffection with the Saigon government. The Liberation Front, in alliance with these new "fronts," planned to form a new national government for South Vietnam which could negotiate directly with the US for withdrawal of all foreign troops. 3. Many of the prisoners claim to have no knowledge of any long-range political objectives in the current Tet offensive. Others, however, like the Nha Trang group, claim that their mission, was primarily a prop- aganda one. One man says he was under instructions to organize the kind of popular "opposition" groups which Hanoi and Liberation Radio have claimed were springing up all over South Vietnam. He reports that part of the plan at Nha Trang was to capture the local radio station so that the Communists could use it to generate a general uprising among the people. The existing government administrative structure was to be won over or destroyed. 7 February 1968 V-1 Approved for Release: 2019/01/17 C06772392 3.5(c) 3.5(c) 3.5(c) 3.5(c) Approved for Release: 2019/01/17 C06772392 T01..SEC