INDIA-PAKISTAN: MILITARY EXERCISES

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06759923
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 28, 2022
• Document Release Date: December 31, 2018
• Case Number: F-2017-00912
• Publication Date: December 6, 1986

Approved for Release: 2018/12/19 006759923
4Lt.d
01100046,
Director of
Central
Intelligence
CPAS NID 86-263JX
TCS 2983/86
6 December 7986
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Contents
Special 4nalyses
India-Pakistan: Military Exercises 12
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Special Analysis
INDIA-PAKISTAN: Military Exercises
India and Pakistan are each deploying forces near their border
for seasonal field maneuvers. There are no indications that these
exercises are covers for attacks, but some Pakistani officials
have expressed concern to US contacts over the unprecedented
size of India's Brass Tacks IV exercise which Pinning ',art
In Ra/asthan. rnonth
Smaller
Pakistani exercises are taking place now opposite Rajasthan and
In Kashmir, an especially sensitive border sector, but New Delhi
appears unconcerned. The simultaneous maneuvers significantly
reduce warning time for hostilities and increase the chances of
an inadvertent incident.
India's Brass Tacks IV fits its Army's annual training cycle, which
normally concludes in January and February with corps or multicorps
exercises in Rajasthan. The exercise this year, however, is scheduled
to involve about 150,000 men, one-half again as many as participated
in 1983 and 1985. The increase may have been directed by the new
Indian Chief of Staff, who, plans
to challenge the conservative thinking of his senior officers. India's
two armored divisions and one mechanized division will participate In
the exercise together for the first time to confront officers
experienced mainly in infantry operations with the problems of
armored warfare.
Indian forces will be poorly positioned for any major conflict with
Pakistan while they are involved in the exercise. The Rajasthan
training area is about 60 to 160 miles (100 to 250 kilometers) south of
the best invasion routes into Pakistan and 200 to 300 miles (320 to
480 kilometers south of the most likely Pakistani thrust into India.
In the unlikely event Brass Tacks IV were a cover for an attack, New
Delhi probably would deploy additional air defense and field artillery
units to the border and more air defense units near the nuclear
facilities at Bombay. India probably would also deploy those portions
of the exercise units that are still In garrison, establish forward stores
of ammunition, fuel, and other supplies, requisition large amounts of
civilian transport and support equipment, and raise the readiness
level of all military forces.
If New Delhi were to mount an attack, it probably would do so after its
exercise units were marshaled but before they were deployed to
Rajasthan late this month or early next. This would be particularly
effective if the exercise were a cover for an airstrike against Pakistani
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nuclear facilities and if India wanted its forces mobilized to defend
aaainst a Pakistani response.I
Pakistani Maneuvers
Pakistan has deployed about 60,000 troops to the border area for
exercises. The Pakistani troops do not appear to be preparing for
combat but are better deployed for war than Indian forces will be.
Kashmir is the most likely invasion route into India, and the units
opposite Rajasthan are well placed to respond to an Indian attack.
the Pakistanis deny they are
conducting border exercises, probably to keep the spotlight focused
on Indian maneuvers.
Several senior Pakistani officials have acknowledged they do not
expect an Indian attack. Recent public statements by President Zia
have played down the threat, and senior Pakistani officials have not
altered their plans for foreign travel. Nevertheless
the Pakistanis seem obsessed by the size of Brass
Tacks IV, the high concentration of armor, and the use of live
ammunition. They are also concerned that New Delhi has failed to
provide Islamabad with official notice of the exercise, as previously
agreed.
The Pakistanis appear to be voicing these concerns to the US to
denigrate India and to strengthen Islamabad's case for sharing
Intelligence and increased military assistance. A recent Pakistani
Foreign Ministry statement to the US Ambassador
exaggerated the size of Brass
Tacks IV and claimed�incorrectly�that an Indian armored division
had moved to a sensitive border position in Kashmir.
Ithere have
been no unusual Indian field deployments in Kashmir.r
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