UK: ANOTHER BLOW FOR THATCHER

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06717508
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 28, 2022
• Document Release Date: February 2, 2018
• Case Number: F-2017-00744
• Publication Date: November 21, 1990

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Director of Central Intelligence
NATO
TELLHGENCE
13 ELY
Wedvasdrey, 21 Nave
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CPAS N1D 90-271.1X
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Contents-
UK: Another Blow for Thatcher
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Notes
In Brief
Special Analyses-
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21 November 1990
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UK: Another Blow for Thatcher
Michael Heseltine's surprisingly strong showing in the Tory party
leadership vote yesterday has thrown party managers into disarray and
increased doubts about Prime Minister Thatcher's ability to win in the
second round of voting next Tuesday, especially if other challengers
come forward.
Thatcher received 204 votes, four short of what she needed to defeat
'Heseltine on the first ballot. His 152 votes were more than generally
predicted; there were only 16 abstentions. Thatcher immediately
announced she would contest a second round, preempting any
speculation that she would resign. Heseltine also announced his
intentiorkto persevere, and press reports indicate other candidates
;have until tomorrow to come forward.
Comment A third candidate would probably make it impossible for
either Thatcher or Fleseltine to win a second vote. Foreign Secretary
� Hurd, in particular, would have been popular as a compromise
candidate, but he and Chancellor of the Exchequer Major have ruled
out entering the second round. A darkhorse candidate may, however,
still step forward.
Heschine faces an uphill struggle to gain a majority on the second
round, but his candidacy may be gaining momentum. Recent opinion
polls giving the Tories a better chance under his leadership in the next
election probably helped sway many votes and could yet persuade
more. He may also benefit from the reported anger of senior Tories
over Thatcher's decision to press ahead without first consulting them.
The vote yesterday is good news for the Labor Party because it
suggests a deep split among Tories that neither Thatcher nor
Heseltine might be able to repair before the next general election.
Thatcher's position, in pa i I. r is likely to weaken further even
if she manages to hang on CIA, DIA-
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TOD Secret
UK'S Thiiteher. Stip ,Pelermined
Thatcher's Prompt announcement of her intention to contest the next round may have
offended some of her supporters; press reports indicate her closest advisers expected to be
consulted on the matter. Her decision, however, is characteristic: she has always considered
herself to be a warrior and once compared herself to Abraham Lincoln, noting that he too
had to.fight for what he believed in.
She undoubtedly would view retreat trom the held at this point as an act ot
cowardice and a betrayal of all she has fought for during the past 11 years. Nevertheless,
although she publicly expressed satisfaction at the outcome, her customary self-confidence
seemed forced.
Top Secret
21 November 199Q
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