UK: SECOND-ROUND VOTE LOOMING

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06717507
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 28, 2022
• Document Release Date: February 2, 2018
• Case Number: F-2017-00744
• Publication Date: November 19, 1990

0 Approved for Release: 2018/01/29 C06717507
-TorSeecel_
Director of Central Intelligence
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Meniiay, ED Novembar? 259N
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CPAS NID 90-269.lx
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19 November 1990
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Contents
UK: Second-Round Vote Looming
Notes
In Brief
Specia! Analysis!
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'Second-Round Vote Looming
Foreign Secretary Hurd's remarks hinting at his possible candidacy in a
second round of voting, plus recent polls showing widespread voter
support for Heseltine, are shifting the tide against Thatcher in
tomorrow's party leadership contest.
observers increasingly
believe Thatcher may fail to secure a sufficient majority of Tory
members of Parliament on the first ballot tomorrow, although her
supporters continue to appear confident. Recent polls show that a
Heseltine-led Tory party would have a better chance of defeating
Labor in the next general election. 71ir Sunday Times of London�a
bellwether of Conservative opinion�also has endorsed Heseltine.
On Friday, Hurd did not rule out the possibility of his standing in a
second round, which would occur on 27 November. Chancellor of the
Exchequer Major also appeared to.move away from Thatcher by
criticizing her EC stance in a press interview ut he and Hurd have
again publicly pledged their support.
Comment: A large number of abstentions in tomorrow's contest
would deny Thatcher a clear-cut victory, throw the leadership
challenge into a second round, and put pressure on Thatcher to step
down. This would encourage Hurd to run, although he risks serious
long-term damage to party unity unless Thatcher first agrees to stand
down. Hurd also may find it difficult to stem Heseltine's momentum,
particularly if Heseltine achieves more than the expected 120 or so
votes in the first round.
Even if she survives, Thatcher looks increasingly like a lameduck. She
is becoming more isolated within the Cabinet, and Major and Hurd
are likely to exercise even more assertiveness in the future in setting
British policy toward Europe. Thatcher would not face another
formal challenge until next November. 1.111 she is likely to conic under
intense pressure to step down next s rin , when increased poll tax
rates are scheduled to go into effect. -C7/1. DIA-
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Itne.ications for the US
Both Heseltine and Hurd are strong: supporters of Thatcher's tough policy in the Persian Gulf
and share her view that British credibility would suffer if Saddam Husayn is not forced to
withdraw from Kuwait. As new appointees trying to consolidate their positions, both would
nevertheless'be more cautious than Thatcher about pursuing any joint UK/US action that
did nothave international endorsement. Opinion polls show widespread opposition to any
unilateral US or UK action.
Heseltine and, to a lesser extent, Hurd would probably try to stay more in step with Britain's
EC partners�even on such an issue as the Gulf. Although both are more pro-Europe than
Thatcher, they recognize that the current acceleration toward EC monetary and political
union risks splitting the Tory party before the next general election. Both probably would
hope that by presenting the UK as a good European player and by playing down the US-UK
"special relationship,' they could persuade the UK's EC partners to slow the pace of
integration.
Heseltine and Hurd are also likely to be more open to development of a European pillar
within NATO. Heseltine has bluntly referred to the "special relationship" as "nostalgia."
Hurd also is likely to be less.worried than Thatcher has about a US withdrawal from Europe
and more concerned about drawing France closer to the Western alliance. Both probably
would have less trouble than Thatcher in going along with an increased security role for
the EC.
-Tnp-SeraeL
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