INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC & ENERGY WEEKLY

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06629853
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 28, 2022
• Document Release Date: September 27, 2017
• Case Number: F-2016-01084
• Publication Date: May 16, 1986

Approved for Release: 2017/09/22 C06629853
Directorate of
Intelligence
International
Economic & Energy
Weekly
16 May 1986
�Secret,
--Seeret.s.
DI IEEW 86-020
16 May 1916
3 9
copy8
Approved for Release: 2017/09/22 C06629853
Approved for Release: 2017/09/22 C06629853
250,000-b/d capacity�appears to have been burned and possibly ruptured.
Major damage to the cooling towers has shut down one of two steam plants
needed to run the processing units, and significant pipeline damage also
occurred. The refinery is the largest supplier of gasoline in Iran. If one of the
distillation towers is critically damaged, replacement could take six months,
creating serious fuel shortages in Tehran and the heavily populated northern
areas. Iran's distribution system is not capable of handling the volume of
imports needed to offset a large loss in domestic production.
UK Gas Reserves London is unlikely to change its policy toward importing gas from Norway's
Estimate Sleipner field despite a downward revision in domestic gas reserves. This year's
Revised Downward Department of Energy review estimates that gas reserves are 50 billion cubic
meters less than was estimated last year. The new, lower gas estimate is in
sharp contrast to last year's, which was used as justification for London's veto
of the proposal by British Gas to purchase Sleipner gas. British Energy
officials, already concerned about the sharp drop in oil exploration occurring
because of low oil prices, appear unwilling to take any action that would
reduce North Sea gas development over the next few years.
Setback for The Chernobyl' accident is strengthening antinuclear sentiment in Yugoslavia
Yugoslav Nuclear and casts further doubt on plans to build four nuclear plants by the end of the
Program century. Last week the Republic of Croatia, questioning the need for nuclear
power and citing Chernobyl', removed any commitment to nuclear energy
from its development plan for 1986-90. This at least postpones plans for a $2.5
billion nuclear plant near Zagreb for which a US firm and the Soviets are
competing. Zagreb health authorities have recently demanded a ban on all new
nuclear construction. The Croatian decision reflects the growing debate over
Yugoslavia's nuclear program. Antinuclear proponents, including some promi-
nent party and republic leaders, argue that the program is economically
infeasible and technically unsafe and that existing energy sources should be
developed first. About 70,000 Serbian students have signed a petition against
nuclear power, and the Republic of Slovenia earlier reduced its commitment to
the Croatian plant. The Soviet nuclear accident could cause strains in bilateral
ties if Belgrade asks Moscow for compensation
India Unable
To Meet Coal
Production Target
A recent coal strike typifies the problems New Delhi faces in meeting its
economic growth target. In a recent trend of joint union action, 700,000
miners responded to a call by Communist and democratic unions for a one-day
strike over industry hiring practices. Labor unrest, persistent power shortages,
underutilization of machinery and equipment, and transportation bottlenecks
make it unlikely that India will meet its coal production goal. Annual coal pro-
duction�currently some 150 million tons�must increase by 10 percent to
sustain the current five-year plan's projected yearly growth rate of 5 percent
for the economy. About 65 percent of the country's electricity is generated by
coal-fired thermal power, and electrical shortages are a major obstacle to
increasing productivity and output of exportable goods.
21 --SeefeL_
16 May 1986
Approved for Release: 2017/09/22 C06629853