EUROPEAN REVIEW

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06629852
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 28, 2022
• Document Release Date: September 27, 2017
• Case Number: F-2016-01084
• Publication Date: May 23, 1986

Approved for Release: 2017/09/22 C06629852
Directorate of
Intelligence
MASTER FILE COPY
CO IvTT GIVE OUT
11 MARX ON
)
European Review
23 May 1986
EUR ER 86-012
23 May 1986
cbPY450
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Articles
Europe, West and East:
Chernobyl Disaster Will Slow
Some Nuclear Programs
Not unexpectedly, the explosion of the Soviet Union's
nuclear power facility at Chernobyl is generating
contrasting official and public reactions in the two
Europes. In the West, the disaster has revitalized
antinuclear movements and forced most governments
to reexamine the future of their nuclear programs.
Leaders there will have to contend with the general
public's heightened alarm over safety standards,
which in some countries will mean delaying
construction of planned new plants. Nuclear safety
also is already becoming a heated issue in election
campaigns, and environmentalist parties seem likely
to strengthen their support. In the East, the accident
also has aroused popular anxieties, but�apart from
Yugoslavia�environmentalist groups are small and
have virtually no influence with the ruling Communist
parties, and the regimes have long-term commitments
to nuclear power as a major means of coping with
their chronic energy shortages
Western Europe
In Scandinavia, where evidence of the accident
materialized days before the Soviet acknowledgment,
reactions have been of mixed intensity. Stockholm
and Copenhagen both described Moscow's
withholding of information as irresponsible and
dangerous. Sweden reaffirmed previous plans to
gradually phase out its 12 nuclear power plants by the
year 2010 and promised to reassess its entire energy
program in response to strong public reaction to the
Chernobyl disaster. Even before the accident, a new
law had been proposed to ban further construction of
nuclear power plants as the government sought to
demonstrate its commitment to a 1980 nuclear
referendum decision. In Denmark, the government
has demanded that Sweden shut down its Barseback
plant on the grounds that the safety of thousands of
Danes living just across the border from the facility is
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in jeopardy. Finland, which has been considering the
purchase of a third nuclear plant from the Soviets,
may now scuttle the project.
The US Embassy in The Hague reported that
continuing controversy over nuclear power in the
Netherlands has been heightened by the Chernobyl
incident. A long-awaited parliamentary debate on
sites for two new Dutch plants�scheduled for mid-
May�has been delayed indefinitely pending a
thorough analysis of the Soviet accident. Labor Party
leader den Uyl, anxious to capitalize on the
heightened antinuclear sentiment in the 21 May
national elections, went further and pledged to cancel
all Dutch plans for expanding the nuclear power
program. At the same time, Prime Minister Lubbers
confided to the US Ambassador that the Chernobyl
accident had also seriously eroded support for the
nuclear program among the conservative Christian
Democrats, making it unlikely that any new
government will tackle the nuclear question for many
months.
Repercussions are also being felt in the United
Kingdom, where the Thatcher government had an
ambitious development program and was hoping to
obtain parliamentary approval for four new nuclear
waste disposal sites and for a new $2 billion
pressurized water reactor at Sizewell. According to
press reports, public pressure since the Chernobyl
accident has already forced London to drop plans for
the new sites while it undertakes a major review of the
nation's nuclear waste disposal strategy. Further
actions on the Sizewell facility or any other nuclear
programs in Britain also are likely to be stalled.
Leaders of both the Labor Party and SDP/Liberal
EUR ER 86-012
13 May 1986
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Alliance must now respond to growing grassroots
opposition to nuclear power projects, and the Tories
also must work out emerging new disputes�most
blatantly the one between Energy Secretary Walker
and Minister for the Environment Waldegrave over
the need for nuclear power development versus issues
of environmental safety
In West Germany, a recent poll found that fully one-
third of the respondents had changed their views on
the use of nuclear energy since the accident. That
issue also has entered the domestic political scene,
with the Social Democrats pledging to make nuclear
energy a focus of their campaign in the Lower Saxony
state election in June. In contrast to the Christian
Democrats' staunch support for nuclear industry,
Gerhard Schroeder, the SPD's leading candidate
there, claims he will treat the poll as a popular
referendum on the industry's future in the state. Most
observers also expect the antinuclear Greens to reap
electoral benefits from the accident in a series of local
and state elections this year and possibly in the
national election next January.
In Italy, the Chernobyl accident is invigorating an
aggressive and well-organized antinuclear lobby in its
attempts to convince Rome to abandon plans to
construct three new nuclear power plants. The
government has ordered that work on two projects in
Lombardy and Puglia be postponed indefinitely. In
addition, municipal authorities at Trino Vercellese�
site of the next scheduled nuclear power station�
have asked the national electricity agency, EN EL, to
postpone site preparations until new safety standards
can be established. For most Italians, the Soviet
disaster amplifies a longstanding wariness of nuclear
energy. Nearly 80,000 people joined in an antinuclear
demonstration on 10 May, and a recent poll
conducted by a leading newspaper found that 79
percent of those questioned oppose construction of
new plants. Although most parties in Italy's coalition
government have voiced support for a nuclear energy
program, Prime Minister Craxi's Socialist Party has
asked for a national referendum on the issue, and the
large Communist Party also has demanded a
parliamentary debate
Political fallout in France from the Chernobyl
accident thus far has been minimal, and we doubt
that the incident will have a significant impact on the
nation's nuclear program. France depends more
heavily than any other West European country on
nuclear power for electricity�about 65 percent of its
power is currently nuclear generated�and the public
generally has been supportive of the nuclear industry.
Moreover, the French have great trust in their
technology and are confident that French safety
standards far exceed those of the Soviet Union. Paris
is also loath to publicize the dangers of nuclear energy
because it is relying increasingly on nuclear
technology exports to make its industry more cost
effective.
Eastern Europe
Although the Chernobyl accident has stirred up
widespread anxiety in most of the East Bloc,
environmental movements there are small by Western
standards and have little if any influence on the ruling
Communist parties. Moscow's CEMA allies almost
certainly will remain committed to expanded use of
nuclear power because they lack adequate reserves of
clean-burning fossil fuels
Environmentalist concerns over the danger of nuclear
power have never had much influence on the
Communist regimes of Eastern Europe. The latter
view their small environmental movements
suspiciously and subject them to police harassment
and media scorn. Nuclear power tends to be regarded
as a virtually inexhaustible energy source free of the
environmental pollution created by other energy
sources and a means to more economic independence.
Only Yugoslavia has an influential antinuclear
movement with prominent national and local leaders
who argue openly that because of the dangers and
economic costs of nuclear power other energy sources
should be developed first
Nonetheless, most official East Bloc commentaries
justifying government commitments to nuclear �
programs in the wake of Chernobyl have struck
defensive tones and attempted to reduce popular
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anxiety about the safety of reactors. Initially, they
followed the Soviet line by playing down the
seriousness of the accident. This tack was abandoned
when the Soviets themselves began to release more
information on the disaster. Since then, the media�
particularly in Hungary, East Germany, and
Czechoslovakia�have stressed the benefits of nuclear
power and emphasized the safety and advanced
technological features of their own reactors
In Yugoslavia, however, the Republic of Croatia has
questioned the need for nuclear power and deleted any
commitment to nuclear energy from its 1986-90
development plan. The decision postpones at least
temporarily earlier plans to build a $2.5 billion
nuclear plant near Zagreb
Over the longer term, the Chernobyl disaster almost
certainly will encourage East European governments
to improve the safety of their nuclear reactors and
make them more mindful of the need to locate their
plants farther away from heavily populated areas.
Such actions would increase the costs of nuclear
power and perhaps stimulate arguments for slowing
down the pace of construction. While such an
outcome seems unlikely given Eastern Europe's lack
of alternatives, the probability would increase if
popular anxiety over safety mobilizes effective
dissidence�and if oil prices remain at their current
low levels.
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