SENIOR EXECUTIVE INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06629391
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 28, 2022
• Document Release Date: December 11, 2017
• Case Number: F-2016-02334
• Publication Date: November 8, 2002

Approved for Release: 2017/11/28 C06629391
TO CR ET/
SENIOR EXECUTIVE INTELLIGENCE BRIEF
8 November 2002
PASS SEIB 02-261 CHX
Iraq: To Flood Civilian Areas in War, Blame US
Saddam is preparing in the event of war to sabotage a few dams or to release river water to
stave off advancing military forces, leaving them more vulnerable to counterattacks,
Baghdad almost certainly would accuse
the US of destroying water resources--forbidden under the Geneva Convention--and of creating
dire humanitarian conditions for the Iraqi people.
-- The Iraqi Government during the Gulf war claimed the US deliberately targeted water
infrastructure, a charge that resonated in foreign media, especially in Muslim countries.
to breach all major dams
would create a prolonged humanitarian crisis, and even a partial release of water would
complicate relief operations. Breaching major dams on the Euphrates and Tigris Rivers would
interrupt food supplies, damage crops, waste water needed for irrigation, disrupt water and
sanitation systems in urban areas, and increase the risk of diseases like malaria.
Based on discharge capacity and potential for flooding in populated areas, the Al
Habbaniyah-Tharthar and the Al Qadisiyah dams are critical on the Euphrates and could
affect more than 1.6 million people. Flooding from the Al Habbaniyah-Tharthar Dam
would damage transportation and utilities infrastructure, local industries, and agriculture.
Water from the Al Qadisiyah Dam would destroy agriculture, local fishing, and tourist
industries.
-- A breach of the Saddam Dam--which has the largest storage capacity of any Iraqi dam on
the Tigris--would damage wheat and barley crops and the water supply in Mosul, home
to 1.7 million people.
-- The extent of flood damage depends in part on the amount of local rainfall and if enough
water accumulates behind the dams during the October through May rainy season.
Currently, water levels are below full capacity, but some major dams do have sufficient
water for flooding.
Iraq's release of water from its southern river canals in combination with flooding from dams
might cause large-scale agricultural losses in the short term and spoil drinking water supplies.
About 80,000 people downstream are vulnerable to flooding because the marshlands cannot
absorb large amounts of floodwater.
-- A shortage of drinking water would create a crisis in the southern city of Al Basrah, home
TOPSECRET
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to more than 1.3 million people.
Turkey potentially could decrease the amount of water available to Iraq to use against
attackers during a war. Central and southern Iraq especially depend on Turkish water to
replenish reservoirs, and the Tigris's water largely comes from Kurdish-controlled reservoirs in
northern Iraq.
After wartime flooding, rebuilding Iraq's water sector would be expensive. Even if Iraq does
not deliberately inundate large areas--or if its water infrastructure suffers little collateral
damage--rehabilitating Iraq's crumbling water and sewage infrastructure could cost more than $1
billion
--Water repairs also could become a volatile postwar issue between the southern Shia,
whose water needs have long been neglected by Saddam, and elites and regime
supporters used to better water services.
TO CRET
Approved for Release: 2017/11/28 C06629391