SENIOR EXECUTIVE INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06629383
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 28, 2022
• Document Release Date: December 11, 2017
• Case Number: F-2016-02334
• Publication Date: November 20, 2002

Approved for Release: 2017/11/28 C06629383
(b)(3)
SENIOR EXECUTIVE INTELLIGENCE BRIEF
20 November 2002
PASS SEIB 02-270CHX
Iraq: International Humanitarian Planning Muddled
The UN's reluctance to discuss humanitarian planning, coordination problems, and budget
cuts threatens to slow potential humanitarian response efforts in case of a US conflict with
Iraq.
There also are differing estimates between UN agencies and Iraq's neighbors regarding
potential population displacement. UNHCR is forecasting
about 200,000 Iraqi refugees in the event Of a conventional conflict while Iraq's neighbors
publicly fear more substantial outflows.
-- Iran this month announced that it would accept 50,000 refugees and assist an additional
500,000 along the border. The UNHCR, however, is forecasting only 150,000 refugees
fleeing to Iran
Turkey is preparing to accommodate 300,000 refugees in camps on the
Iraqi side, but UNHCR estimates that only 20,000 people are likely to arrive. Jordan,
Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait also have expressed concerns about accommodating
massive refugee flows, but UNHCR estimates an outflow of only 40,000 to those
countries.
-- Tehran, Ankara, and others could be projecting higher numbers to ensure preparedness, to
request additional international assistance, or to restrain US military action.
(b)(3)
(b)(1)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
T
Approved for Release: 2017/11/28 C06629383
(b)(3)