SENIOR EXECUTIVE INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06629365
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 28, 2022
• Document Release Date: December 11, 2017
• Case Number: F-2016-02334
• Publication Date: January 15, 2003

Approved for Release: 2017/11/28 C06629365
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SENIOR EXECUTIVE INTELLIGENCE BRIEF
15 January 2003
PASS SEIB 03-012CHX
Iraq: South Especially Vulnerable to Humanitarian Crisis
Poverty and inadequate food distribution put the 8.5 million predominantly Shia Iraqis in the
south at particular risk in the event of hostilities, with the displaced being the most susceptible
to immediate food insecurity.
-- December rations probably will last until late next month
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In the Kurdish-controlled north that access to food, education, and health care (b)(3)
is acceptable, and that the child malnutrition rate of 11 percent is about one-half the rate in the
south. In central Iraq, most of the elite�particularly those associated with Saddam's regime--live
around Baghdad and have access to services. (b)(3)
The southern Shia have long been a target of Saddam's wrath, and an Iraqi-induced
catastrophe against advancing US forces in the south--such as CBW use, oil well fires, or
destruction of dams--would add to humanitarian problems. A suggests that
Baghdad is planting explosives next to oil wells, and Iraq's contingency plans to release
floodwaters from the Al Qadisiyah, Tharthar, and Razazah reservoirs--presently at low
levels--could displace Iraqis in Karbala, An Najaf, As Samawah, and An Nasiriyah if water levels
rise significantly
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Approved for Release: 2017/11/28 C06629365
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