SENIOR EXECUTIVE INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06629345
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 28, 2022
• Document Release Date: December 11, 2017
• Case Number: F-2016-02334
• Publication Date: February 22, 2003

Approved for Release: 2017/11/28 C06629345
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SENIOR EXECUTIVE INTELLIGENCE BRIEF
22 February 2003
PASS SEIB 03-043CHX
Iraq: Neighbors Unprepared To Help Refugees
Iraq's neighbors have only begun to prepare for internally displaced persons (IDPs) and
refugees from a war with Iraq, potentially leaving several hundred thousand people without
support. The UN is seeking contributions for a $130 million aid fund--the US has committed
about $58 million--and has urged neighboring countries to prepare aid facilities, but most are
waiting for funding and help in building the necessary infrastructure. The UN expects as many as
1.4 million refugees and 900,000 new IDPs from a war with Iraq; the CIA estimates 300,000 of
each.
the prolonged bombing of urban areas, Iraqi use of CBW, or a long
conflict could significantly increase Iraqi refugee and IDP flows.
-- Because of funding shortfalls, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has
supplies in place for only 100,000 refugees
The UN and Baghdad's neighbors probably have inflated their forecasts of refugees and IDPs
to encourage donors, but they are unprepared to cope with even moderate refugee and IDP
flows. The UNHCR anticipates most refugees will flee to Iran, Syria, and Jordan, each of which
probably is several weeks, perhaps months, away from having adequate aid infrastructure.
-- Tehran plans as many as 19 camps but so far has identified only three sites
Turkish officials last year began planning for refugee contingencies and indicated they
wanted to minimize potential refugee flows into southeastern Turkey by building IDP camps
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Approved for Release: 2017/11/28 C06629345