NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY THURSDAY 18 AUGUST 1983 - 1983/08/18

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Argentina Declassification Project - The "Dirty War" (1976-83)
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06628652
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: April 3, 2019
• Document Release Date: April 12, 2019
• Publication Date: August 18, 1983

Director of
Central
� Intelligence
Approved for Release: 2018/10/02 C06628652
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cret
National Intelligence Daily
Thursday
18 August 1983
JopSecret
CPAS MD 83-194.1X
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Approved for Release: 2018/10/02 C06628652
Contents
Approved for Release: 2018/10/02 C06628652
Argentina: Ec.onernIc Moves
Approved for Release: 2018/10/02 C06628652
Approved for Release: 2018/10/02 C06628652
ARGENTINA: Economic Moves
, .
ii,,Goxe,rfmrpnfijpo;d,ets4haif&aken,ste s to preserve economic order
twhi'flo:tNt,h00,6:d.tiSiligabledlOr October, but the policy measures
heighten problemsfor the next administration
Argentina's financial package came close to unraveling this week
becanse,ofktfte junta's reluctance to lift foreign exchange controls on
British firmain the country. Once the government agreed to meet loan
crliteria, however, the IMF approved Buenos Aires's second draw on
loan funds 3.5(c)
Theatderaffitoalso approved a new set of economic measures
delsigned-to curb the inflation rate, which Is now over 300 percent
annually. The measures include restraints on wage, price, and interest
!lite nikes as well as on new government investment. A steep
surcharge was placed on income taxes, but, to placate industrialists,
the value-added tax was slightly reduced
Nationalists have called the lifting of sanctions against the UK a
sellout: Labor leaders have complained that the package will not do
enough to maintainthe workers' standard of living
Comment: Reconciliation withltheIMF has paved the way for new
Wilda .necettaarty4oisuStajnthe recovery program. In addition, bankers
stioUldrriOWbe*iiiiiiglo,reachedille'Buerfos Aires's large short-term
debt. 3.5(c)
The next government, however, will Pay a price for these fleeting
AlthOugnombecciritrolsWill repress inflation rates for now, the
market distortions they create will set the stage for substantial jumps
later Irrthe;xear..Interest rate ceilings and reduction in the value-
added tax also will Work to restrain near-term inflation, but they will
diScourage savings and spur capital flight
MOreover;ktneite*packagewillnotprevent higher deficits. This
will add 461iteinflifiOnary pressures that willbe one of the early
challenges facing the civilian administration. Labor will put pressure
on the new government to allow wage increases
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_lop-Seeret
3 18 August 1983
Approved for Release: 2018/10/02 C06628652
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