[SANITIZED]ARGENTINA: POLITICAL PROBLEMS - 1984/10/11

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Argentina Declassification Project - The "Dirty War" (1976-83)
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06628029
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 22
• Document Creation Date: April 3, 2019
• Document Release Date: April 12, 2019
• Publication Date: October 11, 1984

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3.5(c)
Dif4:-.147 .41
Central
Intelligence
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orar_Ras
Atr.o N-013ctx%__
O/D/OCR
Cr. 's 505-509
CPAS NW 84-2381X
11 October 1984
Copy
MEI
509
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Contents
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Argentina: Political Problems 5
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ARGENTINA: Political Problems
3.5(c)
3.5(c)
3.5(c)
-1013-51--cret
Prosident Alfonsin lies toot-wily acted to deal with several
controversial political issues, but he will remain vulnerable to
political fallout over the economy.
3.5(c)
3.5(c)
With Alfonsin's approval, trials of former junta members indicted for
human rights violations in the 1970s were transferred last week to
civilian courts. Senior commanders reportedly anticipate that the
President will limit the number of officers affected by the trials. Lower
ranking officers who fear they will be investigated, however, are
voicing discontent. 3.5(c)
Alfonsin has enacted measures that the US Embassy believes move
Argentina toward compliance with the recent IMF agreement although
Fund officials reportedly are skeptical. Labor bosses and Alfonsin's
political opponents have criticized the acirrment and vowed to resist
restrictions on wage increases
Meanwhile, the acceptance last week by Argentina and Chile of a
settlement of the Beagle Channel dispute has prompted sharp public
criticism from rightwing Argentine nationalists.
Alfonsin is highly sensitive to
the political implications of these moves
Comment: Alfonsin probably will be able to mute military and other
criticism concerning the trials and the Beagle Channel accord. He has
successfully controlled the investigations so far, and convictions will
be more difficult to obtain in civilian courts. Opinion polls on the
Beagle Cttannefnuesiten show consfderabfe popular support for an
agreement
Economic issues will remain Alfonsin's greatest vulnerability.
Constraints posed by the IMF accord leave him little latitude for
concessions to the unions. He must show quick results from the
agreement, including a significant reduction In inflation and a
favorable rescheduling of the foreign debt, to avoid an increase in
labor unrest that could aggravate military restiveness.
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_,Tairsocret
11 October 191141
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