LATIN AMERICAN TRENDS: STAFF NOTES DECEMBER 17, 1975[SANITIZED] - 1975/12/17

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Argentina Declassification Project - The "Dirty War" (1976-83)
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06627605
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: April 3, 2019
• Document Release Date: April 12, 2019
• Publication Date: December 17, 1975

Approved for Release: 2018/10/01 C06627605
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Latin American Trends
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December 17, 1975
No. 0540/75
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3.5(c)
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LATIN AMERICAN TRENDS
This publication is prepared for regional specialists in the Washington com-
munity by the Western Hemisphere Division, Office of Current Intelligence,
with occasional contributions from other offices within the Directorate of
Intelligence. Comments and queries are welcome. They should be directed to
the authors of the individual articles.
CONTENTS
December 17, 1975
Argentina: Combatting the Terrorists . . . .
1
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Argentina: Combatting the Terrorists
A member of the Montoneros guerrilla organization
has reportedly claimed that his group is prepared to
wage a prolonged nationwide war of attrition with the
armed forces which it fully expects to win. He claims
the support of hundreds of thousands of activists
and sympathizers in all major cities and towns. His
claims of popular support are, of course, exaggerated
and self serving; most intelligence estimates place
Montonero strength at no more than a few thousand
militants and active supporters.
Nonetheless, guerrilla optimism is by no means
unfounded. .The Montoneros, for example, have operated
virtually at will for a number of years, and the armed
forces' highly visible campaign over the past two
months does not appear to have reduced the guerrillas'
overall capability, despite government claims of success.
Indeed, in the past two weeks, the guerrillas have gone
on the offensive with another rampage that has included
the killing of a retired general, attempts against
others, and the kidnaping of yet another Argentine
business executive for ransom. The latest activities
seem aimed at humiliating the armed forces and provoking
harsh counter-measures that will gain them wider public
sympathy.
The Montoneros in particular possess a high degree
of motivation and discipline, huge financial resources,
and good training. But, unlike the other principal
extremist group, the Marxist Peoples Revolutionary Army,
the Montoneros claim to be the true embodiment of
Peronism, an ill-defined set of beliefs whose hold on
the Argentine people many fear to challenge. Indeed,
many more conventional Peronists still uo not consider
the Montoneros- completely beyond the pale, despite
their tactics. As long as this is so, the authorities
are unlikely to wage a completely unrestrained campaign
December 17, 1975
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on all fronts against this, the most significant of
the terrorist groups. In the final analysis, the
military may remain content to approach the Montoneros
on a strictly military basis, attacking their camps
and interrupting supply lines, recognizing Military
inability to blunt the appeal of such groups short of
reordering all aspects of national life.
To view the guerrillas as a purely military threat,
however, is to ignore and perhaps even enhance the
factors that make adherence to the groups attractive.
The dissidents draw on the sons and daughters of re-
spectable citizens for support and are well in touch
with--and able to play on--the hopes and frustrations
of this largely middle-class nation. Many young
Argentines see the guerrilla movement as the only way
they can personally have a hand in changing a highly
corrupt, ineffectual political system. One such indi-
vidual, the son of the governor of Neuquen province,
was involved in the recent guerrilla attack on air
force General Corbat. The governor's son, a military
conscript known to the intended victim, helped the
dissidents gain access to the general and apparently
participated in shooting him.
For some time to come the armed forces will continue
to face a particularly galling dilemma. On the one
hand, as security elements, they cannot wholly ignore
the presence of violent insurgents. At the same time,
however, they seem unable to wage all-out war because of
the continuing public sympathy for the guerrillas.
Moreover, the military realize that by being repressive
enough to. rout the guerrillas, they could well engender
the widespread popular repudiation that the guerrillas
hope to provoke. 3.5(c)
December 17, 1975
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