LATE STAGE INDICATORS OF INSURGENT SUCCESS: EL SALVADOR, GUATEMALA, AND THE PHILIPPINES

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06626210
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: March 9, 2023
• Document Release Date: January 23, 2020
• Case Number: F-2016-02132
• Publication Date: March 1, 1983

Approved for Release: 2020/01/21 C06626210
Directorate of
Intelligence
�Streret,
(b)(3)
Late Stage Indicators
of Insurgent Success:
El Salvador, Guatemala,
and the Philippines
An Intelligence Assessment
(b
"-Secret,
GI 83-10073
March 1983
Copy 357
Approved for Release: 2020/01/21 C06626210
Approved for Release: 2020/01/21 C06626210
471
Guatemala: Chronology of Significant Events
�
January 1980
February 1980
July 1981
August 1981
September 1981
January 1982
February 1982
March 1982
June 1982
July 1982
September 1982
Occupation of Spanish Embassy by leftist radicals and Indian peasants provokes
police attack in which protesters and hostages are killed; Spain breaks diplomatic
relations; international media condemnation of Guatemala grows substantially
Guerrilla violence intensities, highlighted by attacks on Defense Minister and
national police chief.
Security forces conduct most successful urban operation to date, seizing extensive
network of ORPA safehouses and arms caches in Guatemala City; ORPA
military capabilities are seriously damaged.
Gen. Benedicto Lucas, brother of President Fernando Lucas, is named Army
Chief of Staff and initiates new strategy of more mobility in the western highlands
and large-scale sweeps against insurgent-controlled areas.
Seeking to regain lost momentum, ORPA stages most spectacular operation to
date; 200 to 300 guerrillas attack and overrun the departmental capital of Solola,
killing the governor
EGP guerrillas attack and overrun the military garrison at San Juan Cotzal,
killing three officers and nine soldiers; this rebel victory apparently goads the
Army into undertaking a systematic campaign to reestablish government author-
ity in that area of the western highlands; Guatemalan guerrillas formally declare
the establishment of the Guatemalan National Revolutionary Union (URNG).
The Army announces the formation of three new battalions as part of expanding
war effort.
Gen. Anibal Guevara, handpicked protege of outgoing General Lucas, is elected
President a the republic amidst a general outcry of electoral fraud; Guevara is
ousted by a military coup, and a three-man junta is installed.
The junta is dissolved and Gen. Efrain Rios Montt becomes President; amnesty is
offered to the guerrillas.
A formal state of siege is imposed and counterinsurgency efforts against the
guerrillas in Western Highlands are intensified.
A 30-member Council of State is inaugurated with the unprecedented participa-
tion of 10 Indians; this advisory body is designed to give representation to all
Guatemalan social classes and ethnic groups.
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Approved for Release: 2020/01/21 C06626210